I guess that means no such feature exists. Someone said once such feature exists, so I asked. Watching Pacers vs Heat game, refs pretty much determine the winner in a close series. I almost have a feeling that some games are rigged. Heat, without LeBron, might not even make playoffs; he is involved in 50% of their scoring. on the other hand, any team with LeBron is a playoff team - pretty amazing realization.
So all I hear now about the heat is lebron needs help. Yup the same exact thing you heard in cleveland. Mind u this is a team composed of two other max players and reliable veterans taking less money to win a ring. I'm not saying lebron is not a great player, but maybe there is something about him that sucks the life out of his teammates. Lebron needs help? Please...
He flops like no other. Over reacts like a freaking child (Forrest gump, anyone?.) People are way premature in extolling him as the best player ever to play the game when he has one one freaking ring.
He may end up being the best player one day, but he has a loong way to go.
I am a big fan of the Pacers. I've been following them ever since Larry Bird set about reassembling the roster several years ago. Bird has made all the right moves.
What's impressive is that the Pacers have built their contending team on low draft picks and skilled free agent trades. Larry Bird was saddled with bad contracts like Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy for two years, plus he had the ugly TJ Ford situation in which TJ Ford went from a prized pickup to what I felt was an unfairly benched player. Through it all, Bird preached patience and tried to build a winning culture.
Also, the coaching of Frank Vogel cannot be underestimated. When Bird fired Jim O'Brien, the Pacers were under 0.500 and O'Brien had lost the team due to his constant complaining. Bird promoted Vogel seemingly out of nowhere, and Vogel slammed the ball inside while simplifying the defense. The Pacers fulfilled Bird's promise that the team would return to the playoffs during his tenure.
Bird isn't involved right now, but he did install the highly regarded Kevin Pritchard (Portland fans used to say that the Blazers "Pritch slapped" other teams in trades) and has Donnie Walsh in the president's position. Owner Herb Simon runs a good franchise and has made the door open for Bird to come back anytime he wants.
I see the Pacers as a team of very solid two way players with two superstar talents in Paul George and Roy Hibbert. I wish Jeremy Lin was playing for the Pacers.
I am certainly not saying LeBron needs help, but he's definitely a great player. Man, if LeBron is on Bulls, that would make them a title contender. There are so many teams in NBA where if he joins, that team would automatically become a title contender. It's no small accomplishment to have taken Cavaliers to Championship series.
Doesn't matter. U can say that about any great players in their prime. Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan?
Yeah on paper the heat looked great that they were proclaiming not one, not two, not three, etc before they even played together. Now lebron needs help.. Only three seasons in?
People's attention span is so limited now days that no one thinks about the overall picture.
Look lebron Is the best player right now. But u've gotta wonder about his worth as a team player when the same refrain is sung everytime they don't win.
Over Stephenson, for sure, but don't know if over Hill.
Solidz75, I am not saying LeBron is the greatest, but like the players you mentioned, he is one of the rare, great players who can make any team an automatic playoff team and perhaps even a title contender. With all due respect, I do not think Kobe even in his prime could have taken the Cavaliers team and made it a title contender. For sure, MJ; probably Magic. Maybe Bird. What I am saying is LeBron is one of the rare players who always seem to make the right plays. In short, he is not only a great ISO player but a great team player -- that's saying a lot. He's like Duncan except he's more athletic; that's saying something. I don't know if I explained it clearly, but that's what I am saying about LeBron. Therefore, he's not only a great player (except athletic talent and scorer) but a great team BB player in the mold of Magic, Bird and Duncan. LeBron could very well average 34 points per game if he wanted to, but he reduces his achievable stats for the good of the team, whereas Harden gets his stats to the detriment of the team. This is why other players want to play with LeBron. I do not think it's fair to say that he "sucks life out of" other players. Other players just didn't play well, and LeBron should not be blamed for that. He actually creates tons of opportunities for players like Chalmer, Birdman and Miller.
Completely disagree with people who question his worth as a team player. When I watch Heat play, I realize that without LeBron, Heat will be demolished by Pacers. Sure, LeBron plays the biggest role in their team, but that's because he plays exceptionally well in his role. Look, if Heat beats Pacers in the 7th game, they will be in Finals for 3rd time in a row; that's outrageously good and difficult to achieve. And LeBron had most to do with it. Yeah, he seems to complain when he doesn't get foul calls, but that has nothing to do with his ability and importance to his team. LeBron's team will always contend for Finals because many players will be willing to get paid less to play with him and because he's willing to pass the ball.
Lebron is the most overrated 'superstar' in nba history. Pacers almost gave away yet another game in 6. I've never seen a team with everything in their favor yet seemingly let the other team in the game. Miami played like absolute sh it but with 5+ missed dunks, layups, turnovers and i mean some dumb tos, 60 percent free throws, 4 points in 12 seconds for LeBron at the end of the third quarter the game still looked like Miami could take over at any time. Never happened. If they hadn't gave up game 1 Lebron would be crying at home right now contemplating an even easier way to win a ring.
Dude, people forget that he skipped out on his loyal fanbase and the team to join forces with Max players in an unprecented way to win multie championships.
Are u kidding me? Appearing in three championship in a row is now a big accomplishment?
Of course lebron was going to better. And other players wanting to play with him? Yeah because it's an easy path to a ring. U r giving lebron way too much credit .. Just like the rest of the mindless media.
All I'm saying I find it absolutly ridiculous that media is proclaiming the lebron needs help. If he is such a team player, what da eff happen to the rest of the team? Really it's all pacers?
As much as I hate to say it, lebron is a great player. He has now gotten better than I thought he'd ever be. But I can't respect supposedly the best player flopping his way to unwarranted calls, who found an easy way to championship. That will always preventing from reaching what he wants to be remembered as ... The greatest player ever to play the game.
Yeah.. Exactly. That what mj, bird, Duncan all practiced on their way to greatness, right? The effer gets superstar calls anyways. He doesn't need to do that. Once in a while it playing the game. All the time, u r just being a dick.
All the questions could be answered if the Pacers played the Spurs in the Finals. I believe the Pacers would defeat the Spurs if they play together as a team. The Spurs have demonstrated team ball over ISO ball. I wish them well.
livyrlife: " .. In your opinion, is Harden a much better playmaker than Lin? Whose prerogative to hand the playmaking duties to someone who is inferior to the best playmaker on the team?
@livr,
McHale gave Harden 100% freedom in his 1st season with Houston McHale's comment at the end of the season about giving Harden all the freedom/the key to the offense was the final confirmation that he trusted Harden 100% to create and take the offense as far as he could this season. McHale wanted to know how far Harden can take this team.
Parsons and Lin confirmed that Houston's offense has a free-flowing offense that they and the other team don't know what plays they will run at any time. Since the preseason, Houston coaches have emphasized there will be multiple playmakers in their system so Harden was the best scorer but also the worst offender in making the ball 'sticky' that McHale hates. But McHale let him be because he is the best scorer. And Lin was also not 100% in his knee rehab so he didn't look too good in front of the coaches to lead the offense.
There was a leaked insider comment that Harden was a much more lethal scorer and playmaker than Lin so he does better all things better than Lin but only the former is true.
The good and bad of Lin's current game Lin's game currently depends so much on reliable teammates to execute PnR to perfection and having the ball on his hands as he admitted at the end of the season. When his PnR partner are not reliable (Asik's buttery hands slowly improving and PPat's midrange game being shipped to the Kings), his game suffered as well. The crisis of confidence came because of this but most likely due to not having the ball in his hands.
Lin has had to reinvent himself to play off-the-ball to become reliable spot-up 3PT shooters and used his quick hands on defense to be in the Top 3 of Steal Leader in the 1st half of the season.
I believe Lin is a better playmaker than Harden because Harden's playmaking is predicated on his accurate 3PT shooting first while Lin's game is the opposite. Lin continues to feed his teammates first before he will score which raise the confidence of his 4 teammates and keep the ball moving.
Harden and Lin (lack of) chemistry going forward? But why would Houston not trust Lin with the key of the offense? It's because both Lin and Harden can be inconsistent when not having the ball in their hands and Harden is the better scorer at this point in their career. Plus McHale decided to give total freedom to Harden even after Lin contributed much in the winning streak
If Lin stays in Houston, I hope Harden and Lin learn to develop chemistry with off-season practice so they can play off each other. But Lin would also need to be consistent scorers (not necessarily shooters) and not rely on his teammates' to perform so much so he can also carry the offense when his teammates are struggling. ...
Lin's uncertainty with his supporting role in Houston With the rumor of his possible sign-and-trade with DHoward to the Lakers, it will be interesting how it might play out. It would open our eyes if Houston Front Offense has any confidence that Lin's team playmaking would be crucial in the long term goal of pursuing championship. It's possible that they think Harden/DHoward plus LMA/Love might be enough.
Lin needs to evolve his Linsanity brand of team-ball so he's not so injury-prone It would be their mistake to underestimate Lin's potential as a playmaker to elevate his teammates plays. On the other hand, Lin also needs to adapt his game to not be so injury-prone and emulate CP3 style as a playmaker so he can sustain Linsanity more than 25 games. I don't blame teams for not trusting Linsanity games 100% YET because Lin needs to prove that he won't get easily injured in leading his team. So Lin has his homework left to do but he's on his way there this past season with full 82 regular games before the freak injury.
Note: I had a slight concern in the last 5-6 games of the regular season because Lin started to play like Harden with more ISO because the ball did not come back to him but the result was not very successful. Lin's team game is really not 100% fit with Houston offense. On the other hand, Harden's game is 100% fit in the Moreyball system. But nevertheless, whether Lin stays in Houston or move to a new team, he needs to learn to be a consistent scorer and less-injury prone. If Lin ends up injured for the 3rd straight season, he would be branded as just a shooting star in the NBA, bright but only for a moment. That's the harsh reality so Lin's game needs to evolve.
sorry for the long answer for a quick question :D I had some spare time to burn on my vacation so I'm curious if others have similar thoughts.
and @wilc, I agree that even if Houston got D12/JSmith type big, it my be Harden who we'll see get the major share of PnR. And we don't know how desperate Harden thinks he needs Lin to be a secondary playmaker so it relieves pressure on his part.
Lin will come back this next season as a more dangerous player.
Any opponent that takes Lin lightly will be burned by Lin. I expect opponents to continue trapping Lin while also believing that he can be scored on easily in isolation.
No matter what Lin's minutes and thus boxscore look like, I expect him to have excellent efficiency and a two way impact. I don't really have any idea what Houston will do with Lin, but I predict lowered minutes and a bench role.
I am satisfied with Lin's game in all areas save one. I want him to SMILE MORE and HAVE FUN on the court!
If houston sign howard and smith or Paul (i think it's smith cause Howard he's his buddy) Lin will be shipped away with Asik too. When i said atlanta couple of months ago it was for kenny atkinson the one who developed Lin' s game with the knicks. Now atlanta has got pop' s assistant coach as head coach (budenholzer) and if they accept a sign and trade Lin and Asik for josh smith i think jeremy will end up in a promising organization with people who trust in him and Maybe budenholzer could turn him in a new tony parker, with a coach with a Real game plan and with great defenders too. Eastern conference is much easier than the western and Maybe he could even gain the all star game cause there aren' t so many famous guards that conference.
I Still hope Mchale will give jeremy the key of the team but i don't think that will happen ...
Spotless mind, I would be happy to see Lin in Atlanta.
My understanding off the top of my head is that Devin Harris is an unrestricted free agent. I'm all for Jeremy Lin and Asik being traded to the Hawks so that Jeremy Lin can start alongside Jeff Teague as the Hawks' starting SG. I absolutely believe that Jeremy Lin is not just a better player than Devin Harris but that Jeremy Lin would be a fine starting SG for most teams in the NBA.
Kyle Korver is the type of standstill shooter who Lin would really assist into being a big time scorer. And with Al Horford and even an improved Asik, Lin indeed can run proper pick and rolls. Even if Lin is played off the ball while Jeff Teague plays point guard, Lin will make his off the ball cuts and toss in shots from all over the court.
Of course, the Hawks could easily stagger Lin's minutes and play him at point guard with Lou Williams who'd EXPLODE playing alongside the unselfish Lin. What's nice about Lin is that he can defend any guard in the NBA and play either position. And depending on the team, Lin could be a very small forward with Teague and Williams in a super small lineup.
To be honest, Spotless Mind, I can't think of many scenarios in the NBA where Lin wouldn't fit in as a starter if he were used correctly by his coaches.
Spotless mind, Lin would be great on the Hawks but I don't think he can get them to Indiana's level.
Indiana is a STACKED team that would be a top team even in the Western Conference. They are a deep team with a great bench. That team is so awesome that All Star Danny Granger has missed the entire season and wasn't missed at all.
Were Lin somehow to end up on the Hawks, he'd still need more frontcourt beef up front and a more athletic presence at the 3. Then again, I'll never underestimate Lin's unique ability to peel a guy off the bench and feed him for scores (Greg Smith in Hou, Steve Novak in NY come to mind).
All this speculation about in which team Lin would best fit is totally moot.
Where Lin should go is any team who believes in Lin to be their pg - the floor general - the leader.
But I just can't see this happening if Lin is asked play a Mario chalmers type of role. Would a team take a chance with chalmers to be their primary pg at this point is his career.
I think the next year will be detrimental because Lin will obviously buy in to Rox philosophy and just do what he asked to do. But after another season being marginalized , Linsanity will be a distant memory - just a fluky good story that can never happen again..
They could even get thomas robinson from the rockets who i think is a great player that hasn't find a good coach yet. Of course Asik should improve his offensive skills to be equal to hibbert but the rest i think it's pretty good. We'll see what will happen.... Just a month and free agency begins.
My only wish for Asik is that he becomes more willing to guard the perimeter shooting centers.
Asik is a nice mobile defensive player with quick feet, but he has to be willing to step out to contest jump shots from centers that draw him outside.
When Asik was benched, it was often because his man stepped outside and bombed away with nobody on him.
This is where it gets dangerous. Asik could challenge those shooters while also getting back on defense, but that could also cause more injuries on him.
I'm not worried about Asik's offense if he's on a Jeremy Lin team.
Asik has decent foot speed once he's in motion but his acceleration is typical for a guy his size.
Whether Asik has to move outside the paint to perimeter really is a function of other parameters such as who is cleaning the boards or challenging lay upsif Asik is outside the paint.
Quite frankly, Houston players aren't good at either of these. So, it's a risky chess move to move Asik outside of the paint especially when opposing teams have quick PFs who can take advantage of the void of both a vertical defender in the paint as well as peripheral matador or slow twitch defenders who can't stop the ball before it enters the paint.
not really sold on the pacers. just a couple years ago barely a 8th seed in weak east. lebald is just showing his ineptness at a team that shows a little toughness and D. They are making Roy hibbert look like hakeem Olajuwon out there.
@psalm Wow, thank you so much for taking time to give a detailed reply. At the first glance on your reply to eb5's request for the steps to put someone on the ignore list, I thought you were referring to me. But then scrolling down, I found the pleasant surprise from you! Thanks again. Your analysis confirms my suspicion about Lin's PG role being completely undermined by " a leaked insider comment that Harden was a much more lethal scorer and playmaker than Lin so he does better all things better than Lin but only the former is true. " The leaked source is akin to package/sugarcoat a lie and then repeat it over and over again, eventually the lie becomes The Truth. Lin played a PG instead of the PG role is the result of a systematic scheming to undermine his role on the team, I suspect.
sure @livyr :D and no I wasn't referring anyone specific above haha
Reading everyone's responses, I think everyone pretty much agree that Houston is not the perfect place for Lin to realize his full potential due to the underwhelming weight of his expectations ("no Linsanity, just a solid PG") and the redundancy situation with Harden.
But I have no doubt Lin will thrive wherever he might be in the next few months. Personally, I'll be interested to see what he will bring in to Houston in his 2nd season given enough time and preparation with his teammates.
Lin is a better team player than Harden, but no question Harden is a better ISO player, except Harden holds onto the ball too long. If Rockets are willing to lower Harden's stats somewhat, they can go farther, but if they are intent on making Harden a scoring all star, then Rockets will not go far. No question that Harden is a better scorer though, and he can also be a better passer also because opponents respect his offensive game, but overall, Lin is a better passer.
Being the perennial pessimist that I am when it comes to sports (thank u jets, and mets) I can't help but think Lin is in a very precarious situation, especially now that we face the realistic possibility of D12 joining the Rox.
Lin will be now relegated to four the most important player on the team with d12, harden, and chandler above him. And I'm sure in McHale and Morey eyez Beverley may be on equal standings with Lin.
It would be fine if Lin was the pg but obviously harden gets to do a lot of what Lin is supposed to do clearly limiting Lin's effectiveness.
I just have a bad feeling that Lin is being molded into a chalmer's type of role.
And I'd be very surprised if Rox get cp3 as much as Morey likes him. I don't think harden would be as happy and find himself in a similar situation as Lin did last year when harden joined the Rox. Then again, the Rox are good at effing players over.
Not sure how the next season will play out. Just have a bad feeling..
Ditto. Not a lot of positive outlook for Lin this coming season.
Well, the silver lining is Lin will be more prepared for his new role.
Lin was completely side swiped about being anointed as the Novak on the Rockets team. But not this year. Lin will be ready for his back up role this time around.
He will be the BEST DAMN off ball player in all of NBA.
Lin will be further discouraged from going for home run plays. The message will be don't make mistakes, facilitate ball movement, make open jumpshots when u get them, don't try to do too much. Lin will never see the freedom he had a playmaker when he was with the Knicks. U think last year was bad, I think this upcoming year will be worse with Dwight in there.
This is what happens when the team doesn't trust you to run the team. Morey will kiss d12's and harden's ass. Keep Lin around for the Asian exposure... But I just can't see Lin being in their long term goal. I mean for the task they want Lin to play, a cheap and inferior player like bev will more than suffice.
I just can't see Lin having a bigger role next season with d12.
I remember when there was a time the debate was whether Lin was "merely" a system player (at the time, the beneficiary of D'Antoni's offense) or if he was the truth, able to thrive in the NBA regardless of what team he's on.
So that we are on the same page, I'm curious to which camp you guys were in 2 seasons ago, and if it has changed over the past year.
I've always been firmly with the latter, but it's clear that he's the one who is going to have to make the adaptations. There is nothing wrong with that, nor is there any shame in it.
Everyone has their own expectations of Jeremy. I get the impression that for some people, these aren't entirely what I would consider fair. How is he supposed to play if everyone is looking at him expecting him to make a miraculous play every time he touches the basketball?
It's not about expecting Linsanity to happen again but being given a fair chance to reach his potential by playing in a style that caters to his strengths. This was the "promise" that was declared by the Rox when they pried him away from the Knicks and the reason Lin signed with the Rox.
But I do fear that Lin has accepted his role and will play this way although he is clearly not being asked to play his brand of basketball.
In Linsanity, we all envisioned a special player who could change the game but at this rate, it will just live as a 30 in 30 moment in time.
Everything changes if Lin comes back next season as a better player. IF he is significantly better next season, circumstances won't have as big an impact on him as they otherwise would. it's up to him and how hard he trains in the off season.
I don't see anybody here expecting Lin to make a "miraculous play every time he touches the basketball", Nom.
People here generally appreciate Lin's game, especially the simple plays.
Yet often he makes jaw dropping plays, much like the up and under reverse layup he dropped on LaMarcus Aldridge or the gigantic block he had on Josh Smith or the finger roll he shot over Blake Griffin.
Morley and McHale embraced the superstar ISO ball would be kicked at the rear even with D12 and Harden on their team. Lin is the only hope for the Rox to play as a team even with the 2nd stringers. With NYN, OKC & Miami Heats washed out or washing out in the playoff, NBA perhaps should wake up and embrace team basketball now rather than going after superstars and hero ball.
Nom, when Morey cited the fact that Lin is tied with Parsons for 3rd in the Win Share (WS) with such low usage rate, that's the strongest proof that Lin is not just a system player thriving only in D'Antoni system.
If Lin was able to contribute much in the Houston system where pretty much his strength except for his quickness was taken out, he showed he belongs in the NBA. Talent, Intelligence/BB IQ and work ethic will prevail.
Lin is not perfect as he said himself. Let him find his ways around less-than-ideal circumstance in Houston and I believe he's smart enough to get out of Houston in 2 years if he believes he can be more than just a role player. Or he might be talented enough to exert himself as the Top 2 best player in Houston. Who knows?
@Etane, I'm not worried he'll be converted into a system player. If he still has his goal to be an All-Star, he'll find his ways either in Houston or somewhere else.
In NBA, Lin can wait for his chance as long as he is healthy.The star players will get hurt and sidelined. Lin will then flourish. Lin can only be as good as the coach let him. When the coaches run out of excuses, they will all be fired. Next season, the Rox has to be better than this season or else McHale is going to get roasted for what I care.
I'm not sure I follow your train of thought re: WS/USG. Are you suggesting that Lin is thriving in the HOU system (not a challenge, just trying to gauge where you are sitting)?
FWIW, Lin has a higher USG than Parsons. It's actually the second highest on the team (for "qualified" players; 3 people who are higher aren't even on the team anymore). I've mentioned how it's not my favorite stat before, which is probably why I'm having difficulty with your first paragraph.
I don't think any rational person can doubt at this point that Lin belongs in the NBA. The question is where does he rank. To that end, while I agree HOU is "less-than-ideal", is it right to cherry pick a situation, or does life get in the way and at some point you have to play the hand you're dealt?
Ultimately, I think it comes down to locus of control. Are you intrinsic or extrinsic? Most importantly for Lin, of course, is what he is. But it's important for us, too, because we project based on who we are (which in turn is reflected in our posts).
Linsanity, if it happens, will only happen during the playoffs, because regular season games usually don't have that "do or die" atmosphere or impact. For me, I will have that "show me whether you can bring your A game during the playoff", not only for Lin but for other Rockets players. What a privilege it would be for Lin to play with someone like Duncan.
What I meant was Lin still contributed a lot to the Win Share (WS) at 3rd this past season although he was not 'featured' much in Houston offense compared to his time in New York under D'Antoni PG-centric system. (USG% 20.8 in HOU vs 28.1 in NYK)
Furthermore, the WS/48 is 0.140 in NYK vs only 0.099 in HOU telling us that Lin could have contributed more to the WS if he is allowed to have more USG% (Usage Rate).
Yes, Parsons had slightly less USG% at 18.3 but he actually shot more than Lin (FGA 12.4 vs Lin FGA at only 10.4). Lin had more FTA so that's why his USG% became higher. I probably should have used FGA to indicate Lin is featured less than Parsons in Houston's offensive possessions.
Also, in the multi-PG system that the Rockets use, Lin was not rewarded with hockey assists so his WS should have been higher had 'hockey assist' been included in WS formula.
So yeah, I hate to see how Lin's role as 'one of many PGs' minimized his WS, +/-, USG% in Houston. But he still found ways to contribute in WS with under-appreciated defense and playmaking (i.e. hockey assists). He can certainly play in the NBA even when he was 'misused' in Houston.
You know, all season people having been referring to the "multi-PG" system. I wonder if it would be more accurate to say that the system has no point (heh). It seems to be very equal opportunity to me. Heck, even TRob brought the ball down by himself once (and only once), but he didn't seem to have any guilt at all doing so.
oh yeah, it was fun watching TRob and Asik leading fastbreak once in a while :) Not so fun watching Delfino, Parsons, Harden getting stripped under the basket a lot of times.
Lin needs to take charge of this organized chaos next season!
Let's analyze Morey's comment that Lin was tied for Chandler Parsons for creating the most wins for the team last year, behind Harden and Asik.
Morey has talked about the fact that a certain plus/minus differential equals a win. The bigger the differential, the more wins it's worth. If you take a player's per game plus/minus and multiply it by how many games he played, you know how many games he won you.
Morey has explicitly stated that he uses an adjusted plus/minus to rate players. Earlier this year, one statistician published a state-of-the-art adjusted plus/minus called Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM). In January, he got hired by an NBA team, and his stats were pulled from the web. Here is the last available information we had for Houston, in December:
Name Net xRAPM James Harden 3.96 Omer Asik 2.08 Jeremy Lin 1.02 Carlos Delfino 1.01 Chandler Parsons -0.51 Greg Smith -0.79 Marcus Morris -1.32 Daequan Cook -2.28 Toney Douglas -2.33 Patrick Patterson -2.4 Scott Machado -2.8 Cole Aldrich -2.91 Terrence Jones -2.94 Donatas Motiejunas -3.01
Lin was all alone in third at that point. Parsons must have raised his game after that point to get it into positive territory or Morey's adjustments are somewhat different than RAPM.
The other issue is that Parson's played 4 minutes more a game than Lin. For Parsons to have tied Lin for games won, that irrefutably means than Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team by Morey's calculations. Considering how much shit Lin took in all the Rockets forums, this is a fairly amazing result. And he had this effect despite having an incredibly low usage rate for a point guard!
And this was when jlin still struggled.... I think it improved month by month... We all remember the game against orlando and Clippers when a healthy Lin lead a team of reserve in a 2 great wins
I wonder how Harden's adjusted +/1 would have changed since December.
The dude scores tons of points but at a very high opportunity cost to the rest of the team in terms of his matador defense, ball hogging and stat padding especially in the 4th.
Well, I guess this goes back to my original theory that advanced stats is hard to model for basketball as there are more intangibles and multivariate factors not like in baseball where the major input components are just who the pitcher and batters are.
I'm glad you brought this up. I was hoping for a similar discussion when the quote was posted, but didn't push it because 600+ posts are just too cumbersome to sift through.
I had a different interpretation than you of what he meant by wins. My impression is that he is basing his conclusions off of some proprietary equivalent of WS or EWA (which paints Lin in a much brighter light than what WS and EWA show).
In any case, I don't think it's directly tied to RAPM. On a side note, someone has sort of "taken over" the job of calculating the metric. There's a post from the guy saying that he would post final season calculations... but that was a month ago.
Anyways, relevant numbers through March 30:
Player/Total RAPM/Off RAPM/Def RAPM
Omer 4.0/1.2/2.8 Bev 2.7/1.4/1.4 Harden 0.4/2.1/-1.7 Parsons -0.1/-0.8/0.7 Lin -0.7/0.2/-0.5
OA is a beast. I don't mind if we get Dwight, but not at the expense of losing OA.
I think PB is legit. These are regular season numbers, but he substantiated them in the postseason.
As brilliant as Harden is offensively, he *must* improve his defense. Honestly, if there is any "home run hitting" going on with the Rox, I think it's Harden going for steals and big defensive plays at the expense of paying attention to the fundamentals. If his contract rewards a stat like steals, then I blame DM (of whom I am a big fan) for incentivising so poorly.
Parsons is really streaky on offense; overall he's a negative, but when he's on, he's on. His defense is pretty good, considering he usually has to guard the other team's A player. Hopefully he will improve on his consistency. Still, best deal in the NBA.
Ahh, Jeremy, Jeremy. This has been discussed to death, but to me, he just has to make his shots. Random stat: when Lin's TS%>60 we win 71% of our games. That percentage is good for second seed in either conference.
"For Parsons to have tied Lin for games won, that irrefutably means than Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team by Morey's calculations."
Not so fast. DM only spoke in absolutes (how many games were won). If you introduce rate (e.g. per 48), I wouldn't be surprised if Greg Smith moved ahead of either of them (Lin/Parsons).
I'm basing what I said directly on Morey has been quoted as saying, so it's not quite as open to as much interpretation as you're suggesting.
Morey is most certainly not basing his player evaluation on a win shares type formula. If you search Google, you will find several things:
1. He thinks whoever invented the box score should be "shot". Win shares is based on the box score. 2. He has said explicitly, as I noted above, that internally, they use an adjusted plus/minus to evaluate players. 3. In the same article, he discusses how many wins point differential is worth.
Here is one reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all
I'm sorry I seemed to suggest he used RAPM directly. I don't believe he uses RAPM directly. He does use something very like RAPM. I used RAPM because it's a very nice proxy for what Morey does use. RAPM is the same *model" of evaluation that Morey uses, and a refined one. It's very different model from the Wages of Wins type, that he specifically eschews.
Where did you get the table of "RAPM" you posted? The numbers don't pass the smell test. No team could win 40 games with Asik as their only year long player at a net RAPM of 4.
"For Parsons to have tied Lin for games won, that irrefutably means than Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team by Morey's calculations."
Not so fast. DM only spoke in absolutes (how many games were won). If you introduce rate (e.g. per 48), I wouldn't be surprised if Greg Smith moved ahead of either of them (Lin/Parsons).
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You didn't take my meaning. If Lin and Parsons won the same absolute number of games for Houston AND Lin played fewer minutes than Parsons, then that implies (and I'm using the strict logical sense of implication here) that Lin had a higher win rate (i.e., adjusted +/-) than Parsons.
I hope DH comes to Rockets, so we can see whether Lin will do better or worse. I have a feeling that having someone like DH will make Lin more dangerous as a passer, PNR player and jump shooter.
I'm well familiar with those articles; the Lewis article is my favorite sports article of all time. Anyways, no worries, my bad for any misunderstanding.
The numbers are from here:
http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewforum.php?f=2
Ironically, it was you who led me to the site, as you introduced RAPM to me, but I had no way to follow it (so spoiled these days by instant stat updates). The stats for nba site has been stuck at 2012 (although good for him for getting paid for what he loves to do).
Anyways, if you go on the forums, they do talk about the limitations (e.g. this is a single year sample), so perhaps have a trustworthy nose, and I'd be interested in your thoughts if you get a chance to look it over.
Finally, a nitpick for the sake of clarity:
Yes, per DM's metric, whatever it may be, Lin has a higher win rate than Parsons. However, once you introduced rate, you have opened the door for other lower minute players to enter the picture. Remember, you said:
"Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team"
That may still be the case. However, it is not irrefutable (e.g. someone else could be behind JH and OA. My guess would be GS).
It's safe to say it's the root of squared variance between projected and actual statistics?
My guess is the assumption on improvement over raw +/- is it improves on the correlation between individual contribution projection (Y) with other known data (X) such as who are on the floor during the time in which the player in question is on the floor.
I am not sure whether what I just described is an idealized form of what RAPM should be or how it's actually calculated because I haven't seen any sources on what the X input variables are used for the regression analysis.
So, depending on how simple or complext the x input data set is, RAPM could be a very good correlation improver or simply something that moves data towards "regressing to the mean" to make it appear like the data has better correlation but doesn't really do much in terms of reflecting "reality".
Rank Name Rating ORating DRating Pos Team 5 James Harden 5.6 6.6 -0.9 5472 Houston Rockets 87 Chandler Parsons 1.2 0.5 0.6 5210 Houston Rockets 89 Omer Asik 1.1 -1.7 2.9 4357 Houston Rockets 132 Jeremy Lin 0.2 0.1 0.1 4673 Houston Rockets 190 Patrick Beverley -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 976 Houston Rockets
This was through March 30. James Harden is the only player in the top 34 with a negative DRating. As noted, this is only the same sort of model that Morey uses for evaluation, not the precise one. We can expect them to be correlated, but Morey's model has Parson's and Lin's ratings nearly the same, meaning either a difference in models, or Lin played better and Parsons worse, down the stretch.
Oh sure, rate is just another thing to consider. If a player with lower minutes has a high rate, it bears paying attention to whether they should have a bigger role.
Thanks for this. And I'm in complete agreement with your final paragraph.
Question for you (and I hope I'm clear on this, because I'm on shaky ground in understanding as it is):
While using prior informed is obviously more accurate, if the question one was asking was simply to rank the efficacy of players *on the same team in a single season*, do you think using the single year non prior informed RAPM is valid (at all)? Or is it really just garbage for lack of data?
I don't know. I can't argue from the maths because I'm neither a statistician nor a mathematician. In fact, understanding the maths on this is something I'd like to do, preferably to the point that I can do the calculations myself, but I've got a lot of work to do.
Instead, I'd try to answer your question by test. Do the intra-team rankings match between single year calculations and multiyear? It appears they don't:
Multiyear:
Rank Name Rating ORating DRating Pos Team 5 James Harden 5.6 6.6 -0.9 5472 Houston Rockets 87 Chandler Parsons 1.2 0.5 0.6 5210 Houston Rockets 89 Omer Asik 1.1 -1.7 2.9 4357 Houston Rockets 132 Jeremy Lin 0.2 0.1 0.1 4673 Houston Rockets 190 Patrick Beverley -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 976 Houston Rockets
Single year:
Rank Name Rating ORating DRating Pos Team 9 Omer Asik 4.0 1.2 2.8 4357 Houston Rockets 36 Patrick Beverley 2.7 1.4 1.4 976 Houston Rockets 134 James Harden 0.4 2.1 -1.7 5472 Houston Rockets 178 Chandler Parsons -0.1 -0.8 0.7 5210 Houston Rockets 238 Jeremy Lin -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 4673 Houston Rockets
There are discrepancies.
@Etane,
I think you're right. It's a solution to an error minimization problem where the inputs are the collection of equations for line-up data broken down into streaks of 5x5 play and the variables are the players. In theory, the method used, "ridge regression", is better than APM because it has constraints such that players with minimal data can't have values that run away.
One thing I don't understand is that, in my understanding of Bayesian stats, the priors would be the previous years' data. But if you look at J.E.'s site that corresponds to the spreadsheet incorporating previous years, its title is "2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30". What am I missing?
v-zero's I mean. JE is the guy who originally developed it. v-zero has picked it up.
What do you guys do? College, job? I'm a software developer. I've thought about putting up a Rockets site that posted up-to-date advanced stats like RAPM. Understanding and calculating RAPM would be a good first step.
So my concern is that, despite the fact that NPI RAPM is inferior, is it so inferior as to be pointless, or is it the best case for the 2012-2013 Rockets?
CP is the only guy whose PI RAPM I would trust, as he's the only returning player, but I can't because what is the difference between a new player and an "only returning" one? JH and OA are both coming off the bench, which I realize is taken into account, but not only are their 2012-3 minutes so much more than before, the quality (in the sense of how they were used) of those minutes are different. Lin has the NYK Lin/HOU Lin dichomtomy; actually this one might be ok, other than his usage (high 20's vs low 20's) his rates are surprisingly similar. And since Bev is a rookie and didn't even play an entire NBA season, who knows what that's worth?
Eh, these are mostly rhetorical questions as you've already commented on bits and pieces in one way or another. I'm ranting because it's so annoying to know DM is ahead of the curve on this and has answers (and even better, more questions) that we will never (well, maybe one day) be privy to. Anyways, thanks for your work and replies.
MT: I am a business analyst. I use regression to forecast such things as product sales and inventory, revenue trending and agile marketing.
Disclaimer - I am not a math whiz. I do all my calculations in excel.
I don't know which site is J.E.'s. However, based on the title name "2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30, I have to conclude that an extrapolation is used in place of historical data.
This arguably is more accurate than using prior year data depending on the extrapolation methodology since data is volatile such as players either matured or aged versus previous PY as well as change in dynamics ie. players traded, different head coach etc..
I apologize but you can say I am a student of trying to understand what DM's contributes to winning basketball games.
He does seem to be good at contributing to building a high valued portfolio of under valued players.
That might not be the case if you don't have players like Lin there making all the butter fingers and the young players who has no idea what to do in a motion offense look passable.
I don't think CP being on the team the previous year makes his number more accurate because almost all his teammates are new. It would be one thing if, e.g., Lin had come to a homogeneous team, but pretty much all the line-up equations that the players share, including CP, come from this year.
I would think this makes their ratings more accurate as a comparison to players league wide, because they have more equations as teammates with other players in the league and using other systems. On the other hand, it makes teammate-relative rankings less accurate, because we have only have one season's worth of data for shared line-ups.
I share your muscular self-confidence in Lin's abilities as judged by the eye test. My goal in interpreting statistics is to demonstrate his effect in a concise, inarguable, and brief way. As with wit, brevity is the soul of rhetoric.
If only I can share the same amount of faith in numbers as Michael Terry, I will be a happy man. But those numbers don't explain other variables that are not in the equation but have just as much impact for the end result.
If a more individual team sport like say baseball, I will have more faith in it. But basketball is much harder to approach statistically, soccer is even much harder.
I like looking at all sides, @Rikki. You've seen me make many qualitative arguments about Lin's game. You've seen me analyze individual plays, criticize refs, evaluate coaching psychology, critique shot selection and technique...there are countless factors effecting Lin's career and I'm interested in all of them. :)
The Lin puzzle fascinates me. It's small enough to be tractable but large enough to hook me. How is it that a player with league leading athleticism and a record breaking start to his career be treated with such uniform indifference at best and contempt at worst?
By the way, Michael Terry, I consider Lin a "high usage" player on DEFENSE.
Every game, I see Lin getting stop after stop. Most of them go unnoticed because the opposing offense simply resets with fans not realizing that Lin prevented a score.
Lin flies around the court, to the chagrin of many fans. Yet he is quick and long enough to contest the majority of bailout perimeter shots if he goes down to double.
What's frustrating for me is that Lin will be working so hard to get stops but Parsons, Delfino, and especially Harden and Bev get repeatedly attacked with little defensive resistance. This results in bad defensive team numbers that make Lin look worse than he really is.
Exactly, Michael Terry. Maybe we should get a sociologist and psychiatrist expert too to break down other variables of Jeremy that we have no tools to comprehend with.
MT: in either of those files you linked, I don't see the source file, the inputs. It only has outputs. It would be nice to be able to see the secret sauce. At least, that's what I thought the difference were between those the two but guess not.
I'm not surprised Morey saying that Jeremy is the same as Parsons in terms win contribution. Parsons got very good numbers this year, but he was the most benefited one in the team playing along with James Harden and Jeremy Lin. More details here:
regarding where his points come from. 50% of his shots were fed by James Harden and Jeremy Lin, and he takes the second most FGA in the team. He's shot at rim was almost 70% assisted, which is the most efficient shot, whereas last year, his at rim shot only have 50% assisted, that means, it would be much harder for him to take those high efficient shot last season than this season.
With Jeremy and Harden create for him, Parsons was taking a lot more shots, and lot more easy shots. That fact contribute a lot more than his improvement in his shot percentage.
So for him, if he is not playing along James Harden and Jeremy Lin, he would not be as effective as now, his success is more depends on other people than himself, thus would not be easily translated to other teams or other line up.
On the other hand, Jeremy not only could earn points, but he also create for other people, with the highest AST% in the team. He could win games without James and Parsons. I know James would win games without Jeremy and Parsons, but I don't think Parsons could do much without Jeremy and Harden.
So, Parsons' points of course contribute to team win, but I'm pretty sure with more advanced data analysis, Morey should realize Jeremy is more important than Parsons.
Also, conventional data available in the public domain all have some major defect, those numbers are not painting a complete picture, thus GMs better not just rely on those numbers as normal fans do.
At least those commonly used defensive rating is really not telling much.
Are you TTNN? If so, that is an absolutely wonderful post. Please know that the work and effort you put into it is recognized.
re: "thus GMs better not just rely on those numbers as normal fans do. "
No way they do (at least DM). If you use WS (BR) or EWA (ESPN) the rank is JH/CP/OA/JL. But DM says JH/OA/CP=JL.
So obviously, whatever his equivalent of the WS concept is, it's different (and way more sophisticated). I'd like to think it somehow incorporates SportVU (I mean, why not, Les paid enough for it). Not only do us normal fans have no access to it, half the NBA doesn't, either.
yeah, it's me. :) Thanks for your compliment, really new to bball world, thus trying to understand what those number means.
I agree, it got to be analysis relate to SportVU, whereas all the movement, assist, hockey assist got tracked visually, current traditional data could not even track one's opponents, most data was based on offensive numbers that recorded, such as points, 3pt, block, assist etc. They could not even accurately track usage. Ever wonder how come Beverley has very comparable numbers with Jeremy in per 36 min all across board, but have 10 points higher in offensive rating? He has the same offensive rating as James Harden, better than Parsons too.
I still remember the time when Harden played against Paul George. He really destroyed the thing that Harden was unstoppable. Nobody is unstoppable even LBJ is stoppable. Hope Harden would humble himself and play to help the team.
I was laughing like crazy watching Harden yelling at teammates to cover players for him in defense. This kind of leader stings.
All these stats are worthless because people judge a player's performance on their playoff impact. I personally think that is so foolish because if it wasn't for Lin's solid season, Rox wouldn't have been in the first round and EVERYONE knows it down deep. Look at Tyson Chandler, he had a great year and bec he got injured and couldn't help during playoffs, people are calling him a bust. NBA is an unforgiving industry. Who knows what will become of Lin, I just hope he is in the right place next year , and is given the opportunity to prove his worth.
Baby steps, @Rose. Morey doesn't judge a player's performance only on playoff impact, especially not when there are extenuating circumstances. As you read news around the league, you know that other management's also know that Lin is worth something. Maybe they don't think he's a star, but all he needs is minutes. Stardom will come eventually if he keeps getting a chance. Lin has shown enough to have a good long career. I'm confident it will blossom sooner or later.
Still the most reliable is eye test. All those statistics lie. In the game with LA Clippers, Lin turnover the ball many times because the Clippers played to stop his passing. Lin made only 3 assists for the game. But as the point guard, the ball moved well and they defeated the Clippers even without Harden. Lin had a good game and the statistics wouldn't show much of it. If you watched the game, you would understand Lin was controlling the tempo of the game.
I think what distinguishes Lin from Harden and Beverley is Lin keeps on attacking and moving the ball while Harden and Beverley have waited for things to happen. When Lin was moving with the ball in hands, (Asik, Parsons, Smith, DMO...) started rotating because they know that Lin would give them the ball if they were in position to score. Everyone moved well. Lin had so many blown assists either with teammates missing the shots, getting fouled, and worst of all lost the handle of the ball. His contribution would definitely be greater if he consistently has someone to set the screen for him on pick and rolls.
But I really developed a feeling that the coaches do not want Lin to do well. They started taking away his minutes and gave it to the struggling Harden. Harden got to stay on the court no matter how many turnovers he made. They wouldn't rest him. McHale put Lin on short leash. In the fourth quarter, if Beverly did well, Lin would sit on the bench for a long time until the Rox started losing by a lot. Then Lin would be sent in the game in the last minutes to take the blame.
"what distinguishes Lin from Harden and Beverley is Lin keeps on attacking ... while Harden and Beverley have waited for things to happen."
No. Harden and Beverly are both aggressive, attacking players.
"When Lin was moving with the ball in hands ... started rotating because they know that Lin would give them the ball if they were in position to score. Everyone moved well. "
Because Lin is a PG, that is his job and everyone acts accordingly. They didn't do this with Harden because Harden is a scoring guard, and everyone knew that Harden was going to focus on getting his own shot first because scoring is Harden's job.
"But I really developed a feeling that the coaches do not want Lin to do well. They started taking away his minutes and gave it to the struggling Harden. Harden got to stay on the court no matter how many turnovers he made. They wouldn't rest him. McHale put Lin on short leash."
Apples and oranges. Harden is the Rockets' best scorer, more effective, creative and diverse than Lin. Yes if Lin had the ball as much as Harden did he would score more, but Harden scored 18 ppg with the Thunder as a bench player with Westbrook and Durant scoring 23 and 28 ppg and handling the ball. Put Harden in Lin's role, he still scores 20 ppg. But if Lin had Harden's role with the Rox, defenses would exploit his limitations. He leads the Rox in scoring, but he turns the ball over a lot more and takes a beating. What Jason Terry said last year had a lot of truth in it: D'Antoni's system allowed Lin to exploit the strengths and mask the weaknesses. The Rockets couldn't run D'Antoni ball because they don't have the players for it. So Lin being the main guy on offense would have required him to do the things that aren't strong areas in his game right now a lot more.
Recognizing that Harden is the better scorer is not favoritism, and neither is giving your top scorer more freedom to play through slumps and make mistakes. Also turnovers are a much bigger issue for PGs than they are for SGs. Where SGs are expected to take risks while trying to score, it is the PGs job to protect the ball. The TOs were not a big issue during Linsanity because then Lin was the main scorer, so he had more freedom to take more risks. But in Houston it was a different offense, roles and expectations.
Harden for the most part handled the role that the Rockets gave him very well. He made a lot of mistakes in his role, sure, but so did Lin. Lin really struggled with his shot for a good part of the season. Yes a lot of it was because he was not the main ballhandler, but his needing a specific role or offense is because of limitations that Harden does not have. Harden will be effective no matter the role or offense. Put Harden in an off the ball role with Chris Paul or Derrick Rose and he does fine just like he did with Westbrook.
Lin just has to add offensive skills to his game to be a more effective scorer. He will do so starting this offseason, and then the coaches will reward him with more chances. The coaches don't want Harden to just shoot and shoot. They want Lin and Harden to shoot less but score more. Lin and Harden shot about 44% from the floor, not terrible not but great either. If Lin gets better with his outside shot and adds more offensive moves he scores at 48% and takes more shots. Harden takes fewer shots but his percentage goes up to 46%, and both guys have fewer turnovers. That is what the coaches want.
Actually, Unknown and I think alike. If Harden could continue to do what he does but pass earlier and look for teammates more, i.e., be more of a team player, he's fine. I 100% agree that Lin has to add more offensive skills to his game. Lin is already a solid player, but he needs to become a more diverse offensive player to go higher.
Harden is the better scorer, but that's beside the point. Harden would score just as much if he agreed to play off Lin more, and the offense would become more efficient, and other players would feel more involved and thus contribute on defense more. It's not an either/or situation as you paint it, @Unknown. Moreoever, Lin is a great scorer when the ball in his hand and he's allowed to make plays. His playmaking lifts the team more than Harden's does, whereas Harden is still a great scorer even when he's not the primary playmaker. It makes little sense not to divide the responsibilities in a way that promotes both players' strengths.
What are the offensive skills that Harden has that Lin has to add?
1. Drawing fouls -- 50% of Harden's offensive skills comes from this ability IMO.
2. Quick step back and jumper.
3. Harden is physically stronger IMO in going to the basket.
4. Euro-step.
5. Cross over, not between his legs but you know what I mean. No question in my mind that Harden is a more savvy offensive player. His herky-jerky style is effective because no one else does it like him. Also, the fact that Harden is left-handed is a big advantage.
No question in my mind Harden is a great offensive force (although less than Melo IMO because a bib portion of Harden's offensive skills comes from his ability to draw fouls -- I actually think he cheats by leaning into or pushing his arms into his defenders to draw fouls).
To be fair, if Harden plays more team ball BB, then I can see why Mac and GM think Harden should handle the ball more, because Harden does have the ability to draw people and make good passes when he's driving in. But other than that, Lin has a better passing skill overall.
I do agree Harden would score just as much even if he plays off the ball, but psychologically, Harden probably feels more comfortable with the ball. Either Harden has to play more team ball, or Lin has to handle the ball more. Basically, I think it's up to Harden to make Rockets better; therefore, I blame Harden (and Mac and GM) for any short-comings of Rockets overall. Lin did as well as he could during the regular season, so I don't blame him.
So many teams think they can get the championship by signing D12. The fact is none of the teams with Howard did earn the championship. What seems to be the problem? Howard couldn't even shoot free throws. He couldn't shoot 3 pointers. How can you expect him to help the Rockets. What he could do, Asik had already done and at less than 40% of his salary. All that hype about Dwight Howard going to Houston is crazy. Perhaps he should go to the Rox and get the coaches and GM fired.
"What he could do, Asik had already done and at less than 40% of his salary."
You are aware that Howard provides twice as many points and blocked shots and even more rebounds than Asik, right? Where Asik is a liability on offense because he can't reliably shoot, pass (less than 1 assist per game) or score from the post, Howard is a dominating offensive player who makes his teammates better.
A lot of you guys seem to think that if Howard comes to the Rockets, it will marginalize Lin even more. Instead, the opposite is actually true. The Rockets relied on an iso-heavy offense with Harden and Parsons precisely because they were so offensively bad at center and PF. (I will go ahead and add in Parsons, who despite being a 6'9" forward is more of a wing player than a paint/low post player.) The Rockets had to use that strategy in order to overcome basically being 3 on 5 on offense.
But give them a real low post scoring threat with Howard, and that changes the whole offense. It will give the Rockets the ability to use a real strategy and actual set plays on offense: low post, high post, screen and roll, pick and roll, you name it. And since they would be running a real offense, that would mean needing the point guard to run it. Harden wouldn't be the primary ball-handler because he looks for his own shot first, second and third. Lin would handle the ball and throw it in to Howard and run other plays, and there would be a lot fewer isos for Harden and Chandler as a result.
Lin would handle the ball more, score more, have a MUCH higher scoring percentage, and get A LOT more assists. Getting a dominant PF like Howard (or like Al Horford) is actually exactly what Lin needs and is what Lin fans should root for.
I don't think whether Lin will get more playing time is reflected by what he does on the court rather it's more effected by how well Lin can play his typecast role of bringing the ball up pass the half court line before dumping the ball off to Harden.
Although, having a big man who can catch and dunk above the rim a la Tyson Chandler will make it easier for Lin to transition from spot up shooter and back to his point guard role.
But, I am a glass half empty type of guy.
Most likely, Harden will continue hogging the ball. And, now, there's just one more tall guy in the paint to dump the ball off to when there's only 2 seconds left on the shot clock.
Also, I don't feel D12 has as much impact on the game as a few years ago. He either still has health issues or he never clicked with D'antoni?
Now this I agree with, @Unknown. Lin shines at getting post players easy points, he's better at it than Harden (even though Harden is also very good), and the staff will let him do it all day long. This is why I comfortable with Lin's future. He's either going to be a major piece of a championship contender next year featuring D12, or shipped off to a situation that's probably more favorable to him as an individual player.
The big difference is Lin will often look to dump the ball to DH, whereas Harden will wait till 2 or 3 seconds left. That's why DH being in Rockets favors Lin. But then, I think this would also favor PB because he probably dump the ball all day.
Well I'm gonna make a u turn: in my opinion Chris Paul and Dwight Howard will end up together in miami. Rockets will get josh smith so Lin will stay in houston with kevjumba :D
papers from h-town will change their mind over jeremy and Mchale will give him the ball more.
Let's see what the Rox buy in 2013. If they only get D12 they just want to develop All Stars to jazz up their team. If they're serious about the championship they need to get talented defensive players as well, not just leaving it to Lin and Asik to defend and the others to pad their stats.
Didn't read thru all the comments but one point sticks out. How Lin does next season depends on not how much he has improved in the off season, but how much the coaches limit his play. The more I think about it, the more this point rings true.
If Lin gets the freedom he got under dantoni, he will find a way to do it. However, if McHale just wants him to protect the ball and play "safe" while the "superstars" do their thing, that what Lin will do.
You cannot possibly think at this pount that McHale and Morey have high expectations for Lin - that they envision him to play a focal point in offense. I am sure Lin will improve as a player, but I can't help but believe that nothing will significantly change unless McHale entrusts Lin to play a more focal point in this offense.
Well, true.... try to think this way. Even if Lin still only shoot 10 times a game, if he improves during the summer, he will make all 10 shots...which is a significant improvement. lol just day dreaming.
"How Lin does next season depends on... how much the coaches limit his play."
@Solidz
Have you ever watched Lin and thought he maybe hesitated to take a shot?
Have you ever seen him put himself into position to take a shot (say a lay up), but instead throw the ball out to a spot up shooter?
Have you ever seen him be given the ball during a half court set, but then pass it away to someone not in position to give him an assist (or hockey assist for that matter)?
If no, then we are done. If yes to any one, how is it on the coaches?
Nom: No one on this site has hammered Lin on those specific points you pointed out as much as Solidz has. So maybe what you just posted is meant to be rhetorical?
I think the main point to Solidz post is NOT that Lin doesn't have room for improvement but the main bottleneck to Lin's performance in the coming year will continue to be the coaching just like it was in the previous season.
Seriously, as Etane has pointed out, Lin did frustrate me with all of those points Nom mentioned.
But one of the big reasons is McHale doing everything he can to undermine Lin's confidence. Nothing pissed me off more than Lin getting inexplicably benched, getting called out as a selfish player, etc etc. a lot of hesitation came from Lin's lack if confidence and u just cant ignore McHale's role in that. If you don't see that, them we have nothing to talk about .. Cause obviously ur blind.
"How Lin does next season depends on not how much he has improved in the off season, but how much the coaches limit his play."
I don't agree with the above. I mean, it goes without saying that the more ideal the circumstances Lin finds himself in the more opportunity he'll get and the better his numbers will be. However, even under the less than ideal circumstances of last season... he could have done much better in various ways. Had his shooting been a little more consistent his numbers would have been significantly better, etc. So I still think Lin can show his ability on a higher level if he improves significantly over the off-season. Also, now that he has a whole year of starting under his belt and in addition to that he won't be beginning the season injured.... his momentum will be totally different in next season which should lead to an even higher level of play independent of off-season improvement. I am not in the camp of "Mchale's the reason". Everyone wants ideal circumstances... but Lin still has an opportunity in the NBA that many don't regardless of how ideal or not ideal the circumstances are and he has to rise to the occasion.
Etane, what does your statement mean? I have no idea who said it or when and what source you found it from. I'm not saying there isn't validity to it, but without further details it's hard to take seriously.
Again, ur intentional blindness is mind boggling. If you have followed Lin closely through out the season, u wouldn't be oblivious to this documented quote. And there is no other way to interpret it.
And I was a first hand court side witness to McHale's inexplicable criticism of Lin at the half of first sac game - the one when he had first dunk of the season and chandler's horrendous shooting led to the loss.
If u really think that the coaches had an insignificant role in demolishing Lin's confidence, u have obviously not seen enough games and ur words mean nada.
Yes, sorry I wasn't clear, it was rhetorical; I am aware of Solidz' position on that matter and had I been posting at the time I would have supported him on those points 100%
@Solidz "my answer to your question is no." "we have nothing to talk about .. Cause obviously ur blind."
That's too bad. You were the only one who I thought I could talk to.
Regrettably,
Your ex-friend bat
@Bamboo
It's a play on a "quote" found here that's become a bit hackneyed.
Note the source. I would love to see a legitimate corroboration (or even better, link to the actual interview) but have been unsuccessful (any help, via?).
I think both arguments are valid: he has to become a better off-ball player and also he has to be allowed to handle the ball more. It's too bad Harden is too young to realize that he needs to become a better team BB player in order for Rockets to advance further.
Are you kidding? It's great that he is this young, and presumably as stupid as anyone else in their early 20's (myself included at the time, and apologies to anyone <=23).
At least there's hope for redemption. If this was his mature game, I'd probably be agreeing with the majority on this board re: him.
Bamboo usually shows up here whenever he needs to defend CP25, McHell, Moldy and the Rockets. He also always stresses that if only Lin were better or had improved at this and that, the coaches would have allowed him to do this and that. Between the lines, Bamboo is implying that Lin is a not good enough player and he deserves to be punished by the coaches and his teammates.
We have to trace back the old threads during the regular season to read Bamboo's posts in order to understand why he had multiple memory lapses about McHell's remarks on Lin's quarterback throw, selfishness, etc, etc.
Some astute posters had already pointed out that Bamboo is a troll. Go read those old threads, people.
Moon Lighter, stop putting words in my mouth and stop being so obsessed with me. Stop this troll nonsense. This is a place where we discuss Jeremy Lin..... we're not always going to agree on things. This IS NOT A CULT
I should say this again... THis place is NOT A CULT.
Dude, relax, there are different lines of thought out there.
Well Solidz, while I don't think Lin's in an ideal situation, he's still the staring pg. And Mchale isn't going anywhere next season.
There *is* one variable that can absolutely change even if other variables don't:
Lin's game.
Of course I think Lin would put up more impressive numbers in a different system: But he is where he is.
And, look, just as I know Lin would put up more impressive numbers in a different system I also know that if Lin can get better in key areas of his game, he *can* put up better numbers where he is even if the circumstances go unchanged.
Remember Lin did shoot poorly in the beginning of the season. He wasn't fully recovered from his injury so that played a role, but the fact was he did shot poorly.
He mad good improvements from the middle to the end of the season which was great to see.
A lot of analysis and nba players who have played in this league a long while have said that sometimes it is luck into getting into a good team or environment that suits a player. I think we are seeing a perfect example of that.
Another example is Nate Robinson. He was on 5 teams in the last 4 years. In this playoff series and also the latter half of the Bulls season, he got a great chance in the system where they had great defensive players around and a coach that let him shoot freely.
I think one positive aspect is that it forces Lin to work on his shooting and playing off the ball some. That being said, he had some great games this season where he played with the ball well, and also some games where Harden and Lin were together.
I do think the way Lin was handled had a damper on his confidence.... but I do not, for a second, think that Lin is the only NBA player who is mishandled. So this isn't some freak thing as some seem to suggest. Anyways... I really think having a full season as a starter under his belt will lead to an even better season come next season. I think it has a pretty big psychological impact on the mind. And even if Mchale's handling of Lin has put a damper on his confidence... then I call for Lin to rise above that. He' getting payed some serious cash and he's one of the best basketball players on the Planet. This isn't too much to ask. And he can do it if he puts his mind to it.
I disagree. I rarely see a high profile acquisition being handled as badly as Lin was last season. Getting yelled at for no effing reason.. Like the clipper game or Sacramento game like a freaking rookie is very rare. Things like this happen if there is an agenda against a player.. And the last thing Lin was a selfish player who needed reebuke.
People often compare Lin situation to tony Parker. Well my knock against that is McHale is not Pops. What McHale was doing was either out of sheer malice or complete ignorance about Lin's game - either way McHale is an dickhole.
Yes Lin can improve as a player and some if the fault lies with Lin in that he just took it like he was at fault. But McHale doesn't give me any confidence that he is about helping Lin reach his potential - and Lin already has do many variables stacked against him that without a supportive coach, it will be extremely difficult for Lin to get there just by improving his game.
You guys have brought up good points. Especially Bamboo when you said Lin isn't the only player forced to play in a position/style that isn't his strength.
Solidz75 you are correct in saying Lin situation isn't like Parker. McHale isn't Pops as you said and the pieces around the team/offense is different. The spurs always heavily used the pick. The rockets not as much.
Here is another thing, I don't think Mchale is interested in helping any particular player reach their "potential". He wants to win with the players he has. In his eyes Harden can do what Lin can, but better(his opinion not necessarily mine). In addition the Rockets play a run-gun style of offense and whoever has the ball needs to bring up as fast as they can. That is why even sometimes Chandler/Delfino, brings up the ball instead of passing it to Lin/Harden. Again, that is just the strategy that they use. I think even Lin said at one point their style is "controlled chaos". Three or fours players can drive/handle the ball or shot, or at least that is what they were aiming to do. The strategy might alter a little once they get more time together or get players through signings/trades.
Furthermore, whenever you have two ball-dominate guards, one of their stats will have to suffer. There is only one ball. Harden needs the ball to be effective and so does Lin. When Harden was with the Thunders he came off the bench. In the last couple of years Manu has come off the bench as well.
McHell can't be so blind not to see Lin is a better ball facilitator than Harden is.
The only times Houston go on winning streaks is when Lin IS the ball facilitator.
And, Houston claims to run a fast game but the game is turtle slow whenever Harden controls the ball.
Pretty much double standards against Lin no matter how you look at it. McHell is purposely blind not to see Lin's contribution to the team's achievements last season.
I also think Lin is a better ball facilitator than Harden. I just think Mchale does not think so. He probably thinks they are similar.
In Harden's defense it is also his first year as a starter, so he might be trying to do a lot. Harden and Lin never had training camp together, it was pretty much pickup basketball. It might not be a big deal for other players, but when it is a starter playing major minutes then there will be some problems down the line.
Houston has gone on winning streaks win when both Harden and Lin both facilitate the ball together. At the end of the season both Lin and Harden have very similar assist numbers. Of course though, Harden does have more minutes and has the ball more.
JLIN fan, I'm not saying that McHale needs to coddle Lin. All I want a coach to do is to let a player play his game. Identify the area where a player excels at and place him in a position to succeed. U do that as a coach, u win some playoffs and maybe championships.
I'm not sure at what point in the offseason they decided to place this no system, make shift offense ( is it having too many new young players?) but if this is what Lin knew coming it, I highly doubt Lin would've chosen to come to Houston. What McHale is doing is a total disregard and disrespect for lin's game. And what Houston is doing is catering to whom they believe is the superstar of the team. They never believed in Lin like a lot of us believe in him. U go back and replay all the interviews in context, the prevailing theme will be clear.
If you were to ask Morey or McHale straight up what type of player they expect Lin to be, I have no doubt they would bring up chalmer's, fisher and the alike. If that's what they see in Lin, don't u think they would utilize Lin this way?
The silver lining is i would be very surprised if McHale is not exposed next year.. He is just not a good coach. He got a lot of kudos because of the youngest team moniker, but honestly what da eff did he do as a coach? As a meter of fact I think his ineptitude lost a quite a few games. I think to a degree there is a reason Les didn't give him an extension this year.
The thing is I don't know how Lin will be able to extricate himself from this. Will McHale change? - doubt. Will Lin be able to showcase his skills in a system that frowns on his creativity - enough for other teams to take chance on him when his time with Houston is up? - difficult.
While I don't want to wish any harm on anyone, the only way Lin could shine is if harden and bev gets hurt. He is the best when he is the primary ballhandler, THE.pg of the team. If he doesn't get that opportunity, I think it would be difficult to shine. The next season will sure be interesting. Perhaps the fan reaction in Asia this summer will show the Rox and mchalr he ain't To be effed with.
I think they wanted to use a run-gun strategy in the beginning, the roster is young and they have stamina. They probably planned to have Lin be THE pg, with just an up-tempo style.
Here is the kicker though. Harden coming to the Rockets was an unknown to Morey and of course Lin when he signed. You said if Lin knew what was coming he would not have come to the Rockets. At the point Lin signed, Harden was not on the team. Morey was not sure if they could get a "star" shooting guard. The Rockets landing Harden was a surprise even for Morey. At that point, prior to Harden, I think most people thought Lin was going to be THE point guard. At what level? We can only speculate.
A lot of analysts were saying OKC made a big mistake, I for one tend to agree. Losing Harden was a huge blow to OKC, and when westbrook went down during the playoffs we saw exactly why.
Mchale, Les, Morey didn't plan on getting Harden. However,once they did and he had those back to back 40+ point games in the preseason Lin game changed because they saw what Harden could do with the ball.
If you were the staff and you saw those multiple 40+ games what would you do? Who would you let handle the ball more? Like I said they are both ball dominate guards. One of them has to play off the ball at least 50% of the time, and that is only if nobody else handles the rock.
Unfortunately(for Lin's role) the arrival of Harden made Lin play out of position,and it came because of Luck in a trade. If OKC had turned down Morey offer, which many thought they would, then we would have seen a completely different season in terms of Lin's role.
You are right when you say Lin is best when he is the primary ball handler. But so is Harden. If Lin always handles the ball, then Harden offensive ability will be diminished quite a bit.
The first season with the team was a little bit of an experiment. Lin did get aggressive as the season went on. He shot better and he drove to the rim more. I think that should carry on to the next season, we will have to see once new players come in.
Let me ask you this then. How would you construct the team? Provided that the core players stay i.e. chandlar, Harden, Lin, Asik ; how would you formulate their style?
Harden had the 1st 2 games scored efficiently when Lin played THE PG.
Harden scored 40+ pts in only 2 games. In those 2 games, Lin was THE PG.
Cam't imagine the Rox coaching staff can be so easily impressed by a Max contract player in just 2 games and oblivious to the contribution of other players.
Are you sure Lin was THE pg during those games? I can't remember 100% but I recall Lin was camping at the three point line a lot as well as playing off the ball once Harden came during the preseason.
I stand corrected then. Lin did get better as the season went on so there is strong hope. Also Lin usage rate is around 20.4-20.6, i think it should be a little higher next season.
Wow, looking back at the numbers and remembering those 2 games, I think they're about the only times Lin was the primary PG and Harden was being 'polite' not to dominate. Then all hell broke loose.
Jlin fan, ideally Lin's usage rate should be ~22 in Houston's system similar to Dragic and Lowry. But Lin would need to be supremely confident in his shooting to take more FGA and FTA to increase his usage rate.
Hi ladies! Are you two going to be present during jeremy's FB QandA tonight? I hope you find time to join and throw him some interesting questions.Hopefully, he'll get to know this site and maybe give us a visit one day..i'm hoping i get one or questions answered tonight...i'll let u know... Im excited...via, u probably can join the quiz, being a jeremy insider(lol) and isabeli, u can join the art /photo contest..if one of u win, i'll share the prize!!fair deal?
chan c Yep!!it was my sister who asked the "dumb" question which i think is the way to get his attention...she knows so well when jlin is coming but yet got a reply... however, i think it was my FB name that got his attention... how i wished he replied to one of my more sensible questions..sigh...
A whole lot! I want to do a one on one interview with him. But first and foremost is to ask him if he ever knew that this fansite exist and if he can give us time to post his thoughts during off season..i think it's time that jlin read the intelligent posts here and maybe pick up some impt pointers to improve his bb skills ..i also want to get his thought on the trade rumors but it might make uncomfortable...but i'll give it a shot..if u have any question that might be of interest to the fans here, let me know and i'll see if i could throw one at him..
Perhaps Lin can pick his brain by reaching out to JKidd during the off-season. 19 years in the NBA is quite the staying power that Lin can aspire to.
I agree they both have a lot of similarities, KHuang. Both are big PGs (6'3''-6'4'') with great court vision. Lin is faster but Kidd was a better rebounder. And they both have CA roots.
In NBA, it takes talent to hog the ball. The way I look at it, if you are not considered a star player, if you hog the ball, you will be made to sit on the bench. Therefore, the very fact that you can hog the ball and get away with it means you are "considered" a star player. I say this half facetiously but half seriously. I think that's as good as any way to measure whether you are a star player or not, unless of course, you have a coach like Popovich who will scream at even star players and sit them on the bench.
Of course, when your star player is Duncan, all players will follow Duncan's example and not complain too much. This is also why Dwight Howard is not going to win a Championship for you.
Not sure what u r implying, whether u r talking about Lin, but all Lin wants is to be THE pg of the team. Not a pg by committee but to play as the starting oh.
Hogging the ball is jr smith going crazy, harden taking shots after shots after shots no matter what. That is not what Lin is asking for.
Brew, u mentioned how harden is able to draw fouls.. I think the refs caught into his antics toward the latter part if the season. I doubt he will get as many calls next season.. Harden is Going to have to make shots.
Right on, Solidz. The refs weren't giving Harden calls anymore toward the end of the season. It wasn't like how they robbed Lin, Harden still got all his legit calls. But the calculated hands in the air barreling into his opponent , stopped getting Harden to the line like it did initially. Also you said Lin wants to be point guard. If Lin stays in Houston, he needs to let that go. Houston, under McHale is not a point guard run team. Jeremy needs to take and make more shots or he will be considered an albatross and remain on the bench. (however if he makes more than Harden or Parsons the favored sons, that will get him benched as well) I hope i am wrong , but I don't think McHale wants Jeremy to succeed. Thoughts?
I believe Lin has a lot of luck on his side. There's a slight chance he gets traded this summer, but if not, I can see the teammates who ballhog getting hurt, forcing Lin into a larger role.
I think Lin did learn a lot this season and honestly he was ok, not bad, not great, he was an OK starter. Now this summer, I think Lin is really going to get A LOT better. And even if he is traded, his focus on improving what made him look weak in Houston will improve his overall game regardless of the system that he's in etc.
I give Lin till the end of his contract to get back to his All-Star caliber stats and effect on the game that he had in NYK. Truth be told, barring injury, he will probably get there even sooner than that.
I think Lin is going to try to ELIMINATE his "weaknesses" and come out shooting HOT this season, and give every teammate a run for their money. No coach can yell at Lin to shoot less if he nails every shot.
He may even fizzle out toward the middle of the season, but it seems NBA heads only notice the start and end of the season anyways, so Lin can stink during the season as long as he comes out hot and ends hot.
Speaking of Lin "fizzling out", he hasn't had a "sophomore slump" yet.
What I'm talking about is the dreaded slump that many 2nd year players go through after stellar rookie seasons.
Teams adjust to great rookies and try to force them out of their comfort zones. That, plus increased expectations and juggling of new roles, contributes to the slumping of performance experienced by so many 2nd year players.
Obviously Lin is no 2nd year player. Still, I myself haven't perceived any slumping in his shooting that wasn't due to a preexisting injury.
Should Lin start the season out firing the way swinglinezigzag predicts (very likely in my opinion), he might hit that slump. I look forward to seeing the new and improved Lin next season.
Even though I have misgivings about how he'll (not) be used next season, I am overall happy with him playing 30 minutes a game as a starter. I'd prefer him get more touches, simply because I feel that the Rockets' best chance of winning is with Lin and not without him.
Unless somebody can come in and defend/pass/score/lead/win like Lin, I will be unhappy if Lin's minutes per game dip below 30. Now if Beverley comes in and starts drawing double teams and finishing at the rim and passing to open cutters and stopping guys from pirouetting him like a ballerina on defense, I MIGHT complain a little less. I can't see it happening, not because I think Bev is Lin's competition but because Bev has given no indication that he can do any of those things unless Lin is on the court protecting him.
Jeremy's Q and A was linsane...thousands of comments poured in in less than one hour..at this minute, he is watching the east finals with brother joseph that's why he is distracted...
I think if another superstar player comes to Rockets - be it Howard or Josh Smith, Jeremy will be placed more as spot up shooter rather than as a point guard. I think Mc is a coach who relies too much on deemed team "superstars" rather than skills.
The irony is that the Rockets are purportedly the most statistically analytical team in the NBA but has a coach that still thinks that reputation alone wins games.
Truehoop had a great article about this recently, studying the impact of superstars vs role players. Truehoop concluded that it's not always the fame that wins the game.
some superstars let their reputation get into the games that most of the time it costs them wins. I've seen TONS of times Harden is initiating contact, trying to draw a foul and complaining when he didn't get the call. while drawing contact is part of the game, he tends to hog the ball TONS of times just so he can get the contact, even if there are other 4 players left open on the floor.
If Howard comes to Houston, I see Jeremy being MORE involved. Dwight is an elite roll man and Jeremy's elite at hitting the roll man (while Harden excels at scoring himself off the PnR).
Dwight also wants more low-post touches than ever, and you need someone to get him the ball. Again, Harden is not that type of playmaker. You need a real PG to do simple but nuanced half-court passing like that.
It's interesting if Dwight comes to Houston, will Lin or Harden be the one feeding him. Harden will certainly get the first choice but will it change the dynamic of the offense?
My guess it will fare better for Lin because the presence of Dwight in the paint will reduce Harden's chances to attack the rim. And Lin has proven he can play give-and-go with Tyson Chandler in NY.
You guys here all worshiping Lin's cock sauce are such hilarious goofballs!
I have had so many good laughs reading through these threads. SO much estrogen in here lol!
If I ever get to feeling down, I am so grateful to know that I can simply come here and instantly feel better about myself, and rest assured that as bad as things may be at times, AT LEAST I am not you guys!
SUCH pathetic losers, riding this guy's dirty jockstrap here 24/7, LMFAO!
It SOUNDS like he's leaning towards Houston, but who knows what's really going on? He and his agent could simply be pressuring the Lakers into installing the coach and system he wants.
If Dwight does sign with Houston, I don't see how they keep Asik with a glaring weakness at PF. They should trade him for a stretch 4...or maybe they'll package him with J-Lin for another "star."
The more I think about it, though, I'm happy with Jeremy staying in Houston for now. His shooting numbers improved dramatically in the 2nd half (e.g. 40% 3pt range) and now he gets a full, healthy preseason to train unlike last year.
Can someone explain to me step by step procedure on how to put someone on "Ignore" mode? Thanks.
ReplyDelete1. Skip over the post
Delete2. Stop complaining
Repeat 1 and 2
yah eba you're obviously a complainer.
Deletesure, eb.
DeleteResist the temptation hit the 'Reply' button to that special someone.
I do it all the time :D
I guess that means no such feature exists. Someone said once such feature exists, so I asked. Watching Pacers vs Heat game, refs pretty much determine the winner in a close series. I almost have a feeling that some games are rigged. Heat, without LeBron, might not even make playoffs; he is involved in 50% of their scoring. on the other hand, any team with LeBron is a playoff team - pretty amazing realization.
DeleteSo all I hear now about the heat is lebron needs help. Yup the same exact thing you heard in cleveland. Mind u this is a team composed of two other max players and reliable veterans taking less money to win a ring. I'm not saying lebron is not a great player, but maybe there is something about him that sucks the life out of his teammates. Lebron needs help? Please...
DeleteHe flops like no other. Over reacts like a freaking child (Forrest gump, anyone?.) People are way premature in extolling him as the best player ever to play the game when he has one one freaking ring.
He may end up being the best player one day, but he has a loong way to go.
Psalm can't you read? eba asked for an ignore feature not instructions on how not to reply. = P
DeleteExcellent analysis here.
DeleteI am a big fan of the Pacers. I've been following them ever since Larry Bird set about reassembling the roster several years ago. Bird has made all the right moves.
What's impressive is that the Pacers have built their contending team on low draft picks and skilled free agent trades. Larry Bird was saddled with bad contracts like Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy for two years, plus he had the ugly TJ Ford situation in which TJ Ford went from a prized pickup to what I felt was an unfairly benched player. Through it all, Bird preached patience and tried to build a winning culture.
Also, the coaching of Frank Vogel cannot be underestimated. When Bird fired Jim O'Brien, the Pacers were under 0.500 and O'Brien had lost the team due to his constant complaining. Bird promoted Vogel seemingly out of nowhere, and Vogel slammed the ball inside while simplifying the defense. The Pacers fulfilled Bird's promise that the team would return to the playoffs during his tenure.
Bird isn't involved right now, but he did install the highly regarded Kevin Pritchard (Portland fans used to say that the Blazers "Pritch slapped" other teams in trades) and has Donnie Walsh in the president's position. Owner Herb Simon runs a good franchise and has made the door open for Bird to come back anytime he wants.
I see the Pacers as a team of very solid two way players with two superstar talents in Paul George and Roy Hibbert. I wish Jeremy Lin was playing for the Pacers.
I am certainly not saying LeBron needs help, but he's definitely a great player. Man, if LeBron is on Bulls, that would make them a title contender. There are so many teams in NBA where if he joins, that team would automatically become a title contender. It's no small accomplishment to have taken Cavaliers to Championship series.
DeleteIf Linplayed for Pacers,m with their current roster, do you think Lin would start?
DeleteCan you imagine Lebron on the Rocekets? Iso-Lebron every other play probably equals first round play off team just like last year.
DeleteDoesn't matter. U can say that about any great players in their prime. Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan?
DeleteYeah on paper the heat looked great that they were proclaiming not one, not two, not three, etc before they even played together. Now lebron needs help.. Only three seasons in?
People's attention span is so limited now days that no one thinks about the overall picture.
Look lebron Is the best player right now. But u've gotta wonder about his worth as a team player when the same refrain is sung everytime they don't win.
eb5attorney, I personally would start Lin over either Hill or Stephenson.
DeleteHowever, I don't know what Coach Vogel would do and won't try to analyze that.
If I were coaching the Pacers, Lin would get the most minutes and touches of all my guards.
Over Stephenson, for sure, but don't know if over Hill.
DeleteSolidz75, I am not saying LeBron is the greatest, but like the players you mentioned, he is one of the rare, great players who can make any team an automatic playoff team and perhaps even a title contender. With all due respect, I do not think Kobe even in his prime could have taken the Cavaliers team and made it a title contender. For sure, MJ; probably Magic. Maybe Bird. What I am saying is LeBron is one of the rare players who always seem to make the right plays. In short, he is not only a great ISO player but a great team player -- that's saying a lot. He's like Duncan except he's more athletic; that's saying something. I don't know if I explained it clearly, but that's what I am saying about LeBron. Therefore, he's not only a great player (except athletic talent and scorer) but a great team BB player in the mold of Magic, Bird and Duncan. LeBron could very well average 34 points per game if he wanted to, but he reduces his achievable stats for the good of the team, whereas Harden gets his stats to the detriment of the team. This is why other players want to play with LeBron. I do not think it's fair to say that he "sucks life out of" other players. Other players just didn't play well, and LeBron should not be blamed for that. He actually creates tons of opportunities for players like Chalmer, Birdman and Miller.
Delete"except" should have read "exceptional athletic talent and scorer".
Completely disagree with people who question his worth as a team player. When I watch Heat play, I realize that without LeBron, Heat will be demolished by Pacers. Sure, LeBron plays the biggest role in their team, but that's because he plays exceptionally well in his role. Look, if Heat beats Pacers in the 7th game, they will be in Finals for 3rd time in a row; that's outrageously good and difficult to achieve. And LeBron had most to do with it. Yeah, he seems to complain when he doesn't get foul calls, but that has nothing to do with his ability and importance to his team. LeBron's team will always contend for Finals because many players will be willing to get paid less to play with him and because he's willing to pass the ball.
DeleteThis discussion reminds me of the previous discussion we had regarding killer instinct and being meek and all (purposely leaving out christianity).
DeleteLebron meek? Yes. Killer instinct? He's developing that.
Jordon? Yes in that he forces the entire team to bring their A game. Killer instinct? He defines it.
Harden meek? You kidding me? Killer instinct? Can you say deer in headlights?
Lebron is the most overrated 'superstar' in nba history. Pacers almost gave away yet another game in 6. I've never seen a team with everything in their favor yet seemingly let the other team in the game. Miami played like absolute sh it but with 5+ missed dunks, layups, turnovers and i mean some dumb tos, 60 percent free throws, 4 points in 12 seconds for LeBron at the end of the third quarter the game still looked like Miami could take over at any time. Never happened. If they hadn't gave up game 1 Lebron would be crying at home right now contemplating an even easier way to win a ring.
DeleteDude, people forget that he skipped out on his loyal fanbase and the team to join forces with Max players in an unprecented way to win multie championships.
DeleteAre u kidding me? Appearing in three championship in a row is now a big accomplishment?
Of course lebron was going to better. And other players wanting to play with him? Yeah because it's an easy path to a ring. U r giving lebron way too much credit .. Just like the rest of the mindless media.
All I'm saying I find it absolutly ridiculous that media is proclaiming the lebron needs help. If he is such a team player, what da eff happen to the rest of the team? Really it's all pacers?
As much as I hate to say it, lebron is a great player. He has now gotten better than I thought he'd ever be. But I can't respect supposedly the best player flopping his way to unwarranted calls, who found an easy way to championship. That will always preventing from reaching what he wants to be remembered as ... The greatest player ever to play the game.
Don't like flops? I think it's apropos to say to not hate the player but hate the game.
DeleteYeah.. Exactly. That what mj, bird, Duncan all practiced on their way to greatness, right? The effer gets superstar calls anyways. He doesn't need to do that. Once in a while it playing the game. All the time, u r just being a dick.
DeleteAll the questions could be answered if the Pacers played the Spurs in the Finals. I believe the Pacers would defeat the Spurs if they play together as a team.
DeleteThe Spurs have demonstrated team ball over ISO ball. I wish them well.
--cont. from previous thread
ReplyDeletelivyrlife: " .. In your opinion, is Harden a much better playmaker than Lin? Whose prerogative to hand the playmaking duties to someone who is inferior to the best playmaker on the team?
@livr,
McHale gave Harden 100% freedom in his 1st season with Houston
McHale's comment at the end of the season about giving Harden all the freedom/the key to the offense was the final confirmation that he trusted Harden 100% to create and take the offense as far as he could this season. McHale wanted to know how far Harden can take this team.
Parsons and Lin confirmed that Houston's offense has a free-flowing offense that they and the other team don't know what plays they will run at any time. Since the preseason, Houston coaches have emphasized there will be multiple playmakers in their system so Harden was the best scorer but also the worst offender in making the ball 'sticky' that McHale hates. But McHale let him be because he is the best scorer. And Lin was also not 100% in his knee rehab so he didn't look too good in front of the coaches to lead the offense.
There was a leaked insider comment that Harden was a much more lethal scorer and playmaker than Lin so he does better all things better than Lin but only the former is true.
The good and bad of Lin's current game
Lin's game currently depends so much on reliable teammates to execute PnR to perfection and having the ball on his hands as he admitted at the end of the season. When his PnR partner are not reliable (Asik's buttery hands slowly improving and PPat's midrange game being shipped to the Kings), his game suffered as well. The crisis of confidence came because of this but most likely due to not having the ball in his hands.
Lin has had to reinvent himself to play off-the-ball to become reliable spot-up 3PT shooters and used his quick hands on defense to be in the Top 3 of Steal Leader in the 1st half of the season.
I believe Lin is a better playmaker than Harden because Harden's playmaking is predicated on his accurate 3PT shooting first while Lin's game is the opposite. Lin continues to feed his teammates first before he will score which raise the confidence of his 4 teammates and keep the ball moving.
Harden and Lin (lack of) chemistry going forward?
But why would Houston not trust Lin with the key of the offense? It's because both Lin and Harden can be inconsistent when not having the ball in their hands and Harden is the better scorer at this point in their career. Plus McHale decided to give total freedom to Harden even after Lin contributed much in the winning streak
If Lin stays in Houston, I hope Harden and Lin learn to develop chemistry with off-season practice so they can play off each other. But Lin would also need to be consistent scorers (not necessarily shooters) and not rely on his teammates' to perform so much so he can also carry the offense when his teammates are struggling.
...
Lin's uncertainty with his supporting role in Houston
DeleteWith the rumor of his possible sign-and-trade with DHoward to the Lakers, it will be interesting how it might play out. It would open our eyes if Houston Front Offense has any confidence that Lin's team playmaking would be crucial in the long term goal of pursuing championship. It's possible that they think Harden/DHoward plus LMA/Love might be enough.
Lin needs to evolve his Linsanity brand of team-ball so he's not so injury-prone
It would be their mistake to underestimate Lin's potential as a playmaker to elevate his teammates plays. On the other hand, Lin also needs to adapt his game to not be so injury-prone and emulate CP3 style as a playmaker so he can sustain Linsanity more than 25 games. I don't blame teams for not trusting Linsanity games 100% YET because Lin needs to prove that he won't get easily injured in leading his team. So Lin has his homework left to do but he's on his way there this past season with full 82 regular games before the freak injury.
Note: I had a slight concern in the last 5-6 games of the regular season because Lin started to play like Harden with more ISO because the ball did not come back to him but the result was not very successful. Lin's team game is really not 100% fit with Houston offense. On the other hand, Harden's game is 100% fit in the Moreyball system. But nevertheless, whether Lin stays in Houston or move to a new team, he needs to learn to be a consistent scorer and less-injury prone. If Lin ends up injured for the 3rd straight season, he would be branded as just a shooting star in the NBA, bright but only for a moment. That's the harsh reality so Lin's game needs to evolve.
sorry for the long answer for a quick question :D
DeleteI had some spare time to burn on my vacation so I'm curious if others have similar thoughts.
and @wilc, I agree that even if Houston got D12/JSmith type big, it my be Harden who we'll see get the major share of PnR. And we don't know how desperate Harden thinks he needs Lin to be a secondary playmaker so it relieves pressure on his part.
Lin will come back this next season as a more dangerous player.
DeleteAny opponent that takes Lin lightly will be burned by Lin. I expect opponents to continue trapping Lin while also believing that he can be scored on easily in isolation.
No matter what Lin's minutes and thus boxscore look like, I expect him to have excellent efficiency and a two way impact. I don't really have any idea what Houston will do with Lin, but I predict lowered minutes and a bench role.
I am satisfied with Lin's game in all areas save one. I want him to SMILE MORE and HAVE FUN on the court!
If houston sign howard and smith or Paul (i think it's smith cause Howard he's his buddy) Lin will be shipped away with Asik too. When i said atlanta couple of months ago it was for kenny atkinson the one who developed Lin' s game with the knicks. Now atlanta has got pop' s assistant coach as head coach (budenholzer) and if they accept a sign and trade Lin and Asik for josh smith i think jeremy will end up in a promising organization with people who trust in him and Maybe budenholzer could turn him in a new tony parker, with a coach with a Real game plan and with great defenders too. Eastern conference is much easier than the western and Maybe he could even gain the all star game cause there aren' t so many famous guards that conference.
DeleteI Still hope Mchale will give jeremy the key of the team but i don't think that will happen ...
Well said khuang!!! Who knows Maybe in atlanta he could be the coca cola boy :D
Deletethink about a lineup with Lin teague korver horford and Asik... They could almost instantly as good as Pacers
They could be as good as the Pacers ... Sorry :D
DeleteI respectfully disagree with khuang that Lin should be an impact player OFF the bench.
DeleteKhuang spins it in a positive way. But, what he's saying is we should be happy that Lin is in the NBA at all and he's destined to be a bench player.
Khuang is the ultimate troll here! Looky here! Wanna find troll? It's Khuang!
(I am sure Khuang can't read a thing I just posted since he has me on ignore).
Spotless mind, I would be happy to see Lin in Atlanta.
DeleteMy understanding off the top of my head is that Devin Harris is an unrestricted free agent. I'm all for Jeremy Lin and Asik being traded to the Hawks so that Jeremy Lin can start alongside Jeff Teague as the Hawks' starting SG. I absolutely believe that Jeremy Lin is not just a better player than Devin Harris but that Jeremy Lin would be a fine starting SG for most teams in the NBA.
Kyle Korver is the type of standstill shooter who Lin would really assist into being a big time scorer. And with Al Horford and even an improved Asik, Lin indeed can run proper pick and rolls. Even if Lin is played off the ball while Jeff Teague plays point guard, Lin will make his off the ball cuts and toss in shots from all over the court.
Of course, the Hawks could easily stagger Lin's minutes and play him at point guard with Lou Williams who'd EXPLODE playing alongside the unselfish Lin. What's nice about Lin is that he can defend any guard in the NBA and play either position. And depending on the team, Lin could be a very small forward with Teague and Williams in a super small lineup.
To be honest, Spotless Mind, I can't think of many scenarios in the NBA where Lin wouldn't fit in as a starter if he were used correctly by his coaches.
Spotless mind, Lin would be great on the Hawks but I don't think he can get them to Indiana's level.
DeleteIndiana is a STACKED team that would be a top team even in the Western Conference. They are a deep team with a great bench. That team is so awesome that All Star Danny Granger has missed the entire season and wasn't missed at all.
Were Lin somehow to end up on the Hawks, he'd still need more frontcourt beef up front and a more athletic presence at the 3. Then again, I'll never underestimate Lin's unique ability to peel a guy off the bench and feed him for scores (Greg Smith in Hou, Steve Novak in NY come to mind).
All this speculation about in which team Lin would best fit is totally moot.
DeleteWhere Lin should go is any team who believes in Lin to be their pg - the floor general - the leader.
But I just can't see this happening if Lin is asked play a Mario chalmers type of role. Would a team take a chance with chalmers to be their primary pg at this point is his career.
I think the next year will be detrimental because Lin will obviously buy in to Rox philosophy and just do what he asked to do. But after another season being marginalized , Linsanity will be a distant memory - just a fluky good story that can never happen again..
They could even get thomas robinson from the rockets who i think is a great player that hasn't find a good coach yet. Of course Asik should improve his offensive skills to be equal to hibbert but the rest i think it's pretty good. We'll see what will happen.... Just a month and free agency begins.
DeleteMy only wish for Asik is that he becomes more willing to guard the perimeter shooting centers.
DeleteAsik is a nice mobile defensive player with quick feet, but he has to be willing to step out to contest jump shots from centers that draw him outside.
When Asik was benched, it was often because his man stepped outside and bombed away with nobody on him.
This is where it gets dangerous. Asik could challenge those shooters while also getting back on defense, but that could also cause more injuries on him.
I'm not worried about Asik's offense if he's on a Jeremy Lin team.
Asik has decent foot speed once he's in motion but his acceleration is typical for a guy his size.
DeleteWhether Asik has to move outside the paint to perimeter really is a function of other parameters such as who is cleaning the boards or challenging lay upsif Asik is outside the paint.
Quite frankly, Houston players aren't good at either of these. So, it's a risky chess move to move Asik outside of the paint especially when opposing teams have quick PFs who can take advantage of the void of both a vertical defender in the paint as well as peripheral matador or slow twitch defenders who can't stop the ball before it enters the paint.
not really sold on the pacers. just a couple years ago barely a 8th seed in weak east. lebald is just showing his ineptness at a team that shows a little toughness and D. They are making Roy hibbert look like hakeem Olajuwon out there.
Delete@psalm
DeleteWow, thank you so much for taking time to give a detailed reply.
At the first glance on your reply to eb5's request for the steps to put someone on the ignore list, I thought you were referring to me. But then scrolling down, I found the pleasant surprise from you! Thanks again.
Your analysis confirms my suspicion about Lin's PG role being completely undermined by " a leaked insider comment that Harden was a much more lethal scorer and playmaker than Lin so he does better all things better than Lin but only the former is true. " The leaked source is akin to package/sugarcoat a lie and then repeat it over and over again, eventually the lie becomes The Truth. Lin played a PG instead of the PG role is the result of a systematic scheming to undermine his role on the team, I suspect.
sure @livyr :D and no I wasn't referring anyone specific above haha
DeleteReading everyone's responses, I think everyone pretty much agree that Houston is not the perfect place for Lin to realize his full potential due to the underwhelming weight of his expectations ("no Linsanity, just a solid PG") and the redundancy situation with Harden.
But I have no doubt Lin will thrive wherever he might be in the next few months. Personally, I'll be interested to see what he will bring in to Houston in his 2nd season given enough time and preparation with his teammates.
I think Hou is not a good place for Lin as well. But I still have hope that Lin will shine even with Harden on the floor.
DeleteLin is a better team player than Harden, but no question Harden is a better ISO player, except Harden holds onto the ball too long. If Rockets are willing to lower Harden's stats somewhat, they can go farther, but if they are intent on making Harden a scoring all star, then Rockets will not go far. No question that Harden is a better scorer though, and he can also be a better passer also because opponents respect his offensive game, but overall, Lin is a better passer.
ReplyDeleteBeing the perennial pessimist that I am when it comes to sports (thank u jets, and mets) I can't help but think Lin is in a very precarious situation, especially now that we face the realistic possibility of D12 joining the Rox.
DeleteLin will be now relegated to four the most important player on the team with d12, harden, and chandler above him. And I'm sure in McHale and Morey eyez Beverley may be on equal standings with Lin.
It would be fine if Lin was the pg but obviously harden gets to do a lot of what Lin is supposed to do clearly limiting Lin's effectiveness.
I just have a bad feeling that Lin is being molded into a chalmer's type of role.
And I'd be very surprised if Rox get cp3 as much as Morey likes him. I don't think harden would be as happy and find himself in a similar situation as Lin did last year when harden joined the Rox. Then again, the Rox are good at effing players over.
Not sure how the next season will play out. Just have a bad feeling..
I actually think Lin would be valued more if Dwight joins because of his willingness to make HD look good and his passing.
DeleteDitto. Not a lot of positive outlook for Lin this coming season.
DeleteWell, the silver lining is Lin will be more prepared for his new role.
Lin was completely side swiped about being anointed as the Novak on the Rockets team. But not this year. Lin will be ready for his back up role this time around.
He will be the BEST DAMN off ball player in all of NBA.
Lin will be further discouraged from going for home run plays. The message will be don't make mistakes, facilitate ball movement, make open jumpshots when u get them, don't try to do too much. Lin will never see the freedom he had a playmaker when he was with the Knicks. U think last year was bad, I think this upcoming year will be worse with Dwight in there.
DeleteThis is what happens when the team doesn't trust you to run the team. Morey will kiss d12's and harden's ass. Keep Lin around for the Asian exposure... But I just can't see Lin being in their long term goal. I mean for the task they want Lin to play, a cheap and inferior player like bev will more than suffice.
I just can't see Lin having a bigger role next season with d12.
A typical line for Lin next year will be 30 min, 4-6 for 2-3 3fg for 10 points. 6 assists. 2 steals. 1 rb 1 TO.
DeleteI remember when there was a time the debate was whether Lin was "merely" a system player (at the time, the beneficiary of D'Antoni's offense) or if he was the truth, able to thrive in the NBA regardless of what team he's on.
DeleteSo that we are on the same page, I'm curious to which camp you guys were in 2 seasons ago, and if it has changed over the past year.
I've always been firmly with the latter, but it's clear that he's the one who is going to have to make the adaptations. There is nothing wrong with that, nor is there any shame in it.
Everyone has their own expectations of Jeremy. I get the impression that for some people, these aren't entirely what I would consider fair. How is he supposed to play if everyone is looking at him expecting him to make a miraculous play every time he touches the basketball?
It's not about expecting Linsanity to happen again but being given a fair chance to reach his potential by playing in a style that caters to his strengths. This was the "promise" that was declared by the Rox when they pried him away from the Knicks and the reason Lin signed with the Rox.
DeleteBut I do fear that Lin has accepted his role and will play this way although he is clearly not being asked to play his brand of basketball.
In Linsanity, we all envisioned a special player who could change the game but at this rate, it will just live as a 30 in 30 moment in time.
Third option - Lin is the truth but is converted into a system player. This is what I see is going on in Houston.
Delete@Solidz
DeleteCan't say I disagree. My last sentence wasn't really directed at you (I know you know). Actually, it's not even my quote.
@Etane
No worries, then. Truth will always prevail.
Nom: I happen to think history/truth is often (re)written by the winners.
Delete@Etane
DeleteI agree. But what's more important, what Lin actually experiences, or how he will be remembered sometime in the future?
Precisely why I worry his potential will never again be realized not because of his ability but because of his toxic environment.
DeleteEverything changes if Lin comes back next season as a better player. IF he is significantly better next season, circumstances won't have as big an impact on him as they otherwise would. it's up to him and how hard he trains in the off season.
DeleteI don't see anybody here expecting Lin to make a "miraculous play every time he touches the basketball", Nom.
DeletePeople here generally appreciate Lin's game, especially the simple plays.
Yet often he makes jaw dropping plays, much like the up and under reverse layup he dropped on LaMarcus Aldridge or the gigantic block he had on Josh Smith or the finger roll he shot over Blake Griffin.
"miraculous play every time he touches the basketball"
DeleteLike I said, it's not really my quote.
It's Lin's.
D'oh!
Morley and McHale embraced the superstar ISO ball would be kicked at the rear even with D12 and Harden on their team.
DeleteLin is the only hope for the Rox to play as a team even with the 2nd stringers. With NYN, OKC & Miami Heats washed out or washing out in the playoff, NBA perhaps should wake up and embrace team basketball now rather than going after superstars and hero ball.
Nom, when Morey cited the fact that Lin is tied with Parsons for 3rd in the Win Share (WS) with such low usage rate, that's the strongest proof that Lin is not just a system player thriving only in D'Antoni system.
DeleteIf Lin was able to contribute much in the Houston system where pretty much his strength except for his quickness was taken out, he showed he belongs in the NBA. Talent, Intelligence/BB IQ and work ethic will prevail.
Lin is not perfect as he said himself. Let him find his ways around less-than-ideal circumstance in Houston and I believe he's smart enough to get out of Houston in 2 years if he believes he can be more than just a role player. Or he might be talented enough to exert himself as the Top 2 best player in Houston. Who knows?
@Etane, I'm not worried he'll be converted into a system player. If he still has his goal to be an All-Star, he'll find his ways either in Houston or somewhere else.
In NBA, Lin can wait for his chance as long as he is healthy.The star players will get hurt and sidelined. Lin will then flourish.
DeleteLin can only be as good as the coach let him. When the coaches run out of excuses, they will all be fired.
Next season, the Rox has to be better than this season or else McHale is going to get roasted for what I care.
Hey @psalm!
DeleteI'm not sure I follow your train of thought re: WS/USG. Are you suggesting that Lin is thriving in the HOU system (not a challenge, just trying to gauge where you are sitting)?
FWIW, Lin has a higher USG than Parsons. It's actually the second highest on the team (for "qualified" players; 3 people who are higher aren't even on the team anymore). I've mentioned how it's not my favorite stat before, which is probably why I'm having difficulty with your first paragraph.
I don't think any rational person can doubt at this point that Lin belongs in the NBA. The question is where does he rank. To that end, while I agree HOU is "less-than-ideal", is it right to cherry pick a situation, or does life get in the way and at some point you have to play the hand you're dealt?
Ultimately, I think it comes down to locus of control. Are you intrinsic or extrinsic? Most importantly for Lin, of course, is what he is. But it's important for us, too, because we project based on who we are (which in turn is reflected in our posts).
Linsanity, if it happens, will only happen during the playoffs, because regular season games usually don't have that "do or die" atmosphere or impact. For me, I will have that "show me whether you can bring your A game during the playoff", not only for Lin but for other Rockets players. What a privilege it would be for Lin to play with someone like Duncan.
DeleteHi @Nom,
DeleteWhat I meant was Lin still contributed a lot to the Win Share (WS) at 3rd this past season although he was not 'featured' much in Houston offense compared to his time in New York under D'Antoni PG-centric system. (USG% 20.8 in HOU vs 28.1 in NYK)
See Advanced Season Stat
Furthermore, the WS/48 is 0.140 in NYK vs only 0.099 in HOU telling us that Lin could have contributed more to the WS if he is allowed to have more USG% (Usage Rate).
Yes, Parsons had slightly less USG% at 18.3 but he actually shot more than Lin (FGA 12.4 vs Lin FGA at only 10.4). Lin had more FTA so that's why his USG% became higher. I probably should have used FGA to indicate Lin is featured less than Parsons in Houston's offensive possessions.
Also, in the multi-PG system that the Rockets use, Lin was not rewarded with hockey assists so his WS should have been higher had 'hockey assist' been included in WS formula.
So yeah, I hate to see how Lin's role as 'one of many PGs' minimized his WS, +/-, USG% in Houston. But he still found ways to contribute in WS with under-appreciated defense and playmaking (i.e. hockey assists). He can certainly play in the NBA even when he was 'misused' in Houston.
D'OH, I and many others here already knew that.
DeleteI'm not as stupid as to disagree with that quote, lwt alone not know it.
@Psalm
DeleteThanks for the thoughtful response.
You know, all season people having been referring to the "multi-PG" system. I wonder if it would be more accurate to say that the system has no point (heh). It seems to be very equal opportunity to me. Heck, even TRob brought the ball down by himself once (and only once), but he didn't seem to have any guilt at all doing so.
Sure, @Nom :)
Deleteoh yeah, it was fun watching TRob and Asik leading fastbreak once in a while :)
Not so fun watching Delfino, Parsons, Harden getting stripped under the basket a lot of times.
Lin needs to take charge of this organized chaos next season!
love jlin doing charities esp if its for kids...not a fan of their bro thing, i think jlin's real nba bros are dlee, scurry, lfields & jjeffries
ReplyDeletenot sure if this has been posted before, this video greatly shows jlin's impact in the teams win
09harvardjlinvsbu
Let's analyze Morey's comment that Lin was tied for Chandler Parsons for creating the most wins for the team last year, behind Harden and Asik.
ReplyDeleteMorey has talked about the fact that a certain plus/minus differential equals a win. The bigger the differential, the more wins it's worth. If you take a player's per game plus/minus and multiply it by how many games he played, you know how many games he won you.
Morey has explicitly stated that he uses an adjusted plus/minus to rate players. Earlier this year, one statistician published a state-of-the-art adjusted plus/minus called Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM). In January, he got hired by an NBA team, and his stats were pulled from the web. Here is the last available information we had for Houston, in December:
Name Net xRAPM
James Harden 3.96
Omer Asik 2.08
Jeremy Lin 1.02
Carlos Delfino 1.01
Chandler Parsons -0.51
Greg Smith -0.79
Marcus Morris -1.32
Daequan Cook -2.28
Toney Douglas -2.33
Patrick Patterson -2.4
Scott Machado -2.8
Cole Aldrich -2.91
Terrence Jones -2.94
Donatas Motiejunas -3.01
Lin was all alone in third at that point. Parsons must have raised his game after that point to get it into positive territory or Morey's adjustments are somewhat different than RAPM.
The other issue is that Parson's played 4 minutes more a game than Lin. For Parsons to have tied Lin for games won, that irrefutably means than Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team by Morey's calculations. Considering how much shit Lin took in all the Rockets forums, this is a fairly amazing result. And he had this effect despite having an incredibly low usage rate for a point guard!
And this was when jlin still struggled.... I think it improved month by month... We all remember the game against orlando and Clippers when a healthy Lin lead a team of reserve in a 2 great wins
DeleteGood analysis.
DeleteI wonder how Harden's adjusted +/1 would have changed since December.
The dude scores tons of points but at a very high opportunity cost to the rest of the team in terms of his matador defense, ball hogging and stat padding especially in the 4th.
Well, I guess this goes back to my original theory that advanced stats is hard to model for basketball as there are more intangibles and multivariate factors not like in baseball where the major input components are just who the pitcher and batters are.
+1 your last paragraph etane.
Delete@Michael
DeleteI'm glad you brought this up. I was hoping for a similar discussion when the quote was posted, but didn't push it because 600+ posts are just too cumbersome to sift through.
I had a different interpretation than you of what he meant by wins. My impression is that he is basing his conclusions off of some proprietary equivalent of WS or EWA (which paints Lin in a much brighter light than what WS and EWA show).
In any case, I don't think it's directly tied to RAPM. On a side note, someone has sort of "taken over" the job of calculating the metric. There's a post from the guy saying that he would post final season calculations... but that was a month ago.
Anyways, relevant numbers through March 30:
Player/Total RAPM/Off RAPM/Def RAPM
Omer 4.0/1.2/2.8
Bev 2.7/1.4/1.4
Harden 0.4/2.1/-1.7
Parsons -0.1/-0.8/0.7
Lin -0.7/0.2/-0.5
OA is a beast. I don't mind if we get Dwight, but not at the expense of losing OA.
I think PB is legit. These are regular season numbers, but he substantiated them in the postseason.
As brilliant as Harden is offensively, he *must* improve his defense. Honestly, if there is any "home run hitting" going on with the Rox, I think it's Harden going for steals and big defensive plays at the expense of paying attention to the fundamentals. If his contract rewards a stat like steals, then I blame DM (of whom I am a big fan) for incentivising so poorly.
Parsons is really streaky on offense; overall he's a negative, but when he's on, he's on. His defense is pretty good, considering he usually has to guard the other team's A player. Hopefully he will improve on his consistency. Still, best deal in the NBA.
Ahh, Jeremy, Jeremy. This has been discussed to death, but to me, he just has to make his shots. Random stat: when Lin's TS%>60 we win 71% of our games. That percentage is good for second seed in either conference.
"For Parsons to have tied Lin for games won, that irrefutably means than Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team by Morey's calculations."
DeleteNot so fast. DM only spoke in absolutes (how many games were won). If you introduce rate (e.g. per 48), I wouldn't be surprised if Greg Smith moved ahead of either of them (Lin/Parsons).
The trick is in how does one interpret and utilize the stats.
DeleteIt depends on what one's goals are.
For me, I am content to know that Jeremy Lin can be very effective in a starting NBA role for a full season.
Now where do we go from there? It's not my call, but I'd prefer to see more Lin every game with more touches.
@Nom,
DeleteI'm basing what I said directly on Morey has been quoted as saying, so it's not quite as open to as much interpretation as you're suggesting.
Morey is most certainly not basing his player evaluation on a win shares type formula. If you search Google, you will find several things:
1. He thinks whoever invented the box score should be "shot". Win shares is based on the box score.
2. He has said explicitly, as I noted above, that internally, they use an adjusted plus/minus to evaluate players.
3. In the same article, he discusses how many wins point differential is worth.
Here is one reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all
I'm sorry I seemed to suggest he used RAPM directly. I don't believe he uses RAPM directly. He does use something very like RAPM. I used RAPM because it's a very nice proxy for what Morey does use. RAPM is the same *model" of evaluation that Morey uses, and a refined one. It's very different model from the Wages of Wins type, that he specifically eschews.
Where did you get the table of "RAPM" you posted? The numbers don't pass the smell test. No team could win 40 games with Asik as their only year long player at a net RAPM of 4.
Delete"For Parsons to have tied Lin for games won, that irrefutably means than Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team by Morey's calculations."
DeleteNot so fast. DM only spoke in absolutes (how many games were won). If you introduce rate (e.g. per 48), I wouldn't be surprised if Greg Smith moved ahead of either of them (Lin/Parsons).
---
You didn't take my meaning. If Lin and Parsons won the same absolute number of games for Houston AND Lin played fewer minutes than Parsons, then that implies (and I'm using the strict logical sense of implication here) that Lin had a higher win rate (i.e., adjusted +/-) than Parsons.
I hope DH comes to Rockets, so we can see whether Lin will do better or worse. I have a feeling that having someone like DH will make Lin more dangerous as a passer, PNR player and jump shooter.
Delete@Michael
DeleteI'm well familiar with those articles; the Lewis article is my favorite sports article of all time. Anyways, no worries, my bad for any misunderstanding.
The numbers are from here:
http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewforum.php?f=2
Ironically, it was you who led me to the site, as you introduced RAPM to me, but I had no way to follow it (so spoiled these days by instant stat updates). The stats for nba site has been stuck at 2012 (although good for him for getting paid for what he loves to do).
Anyways, if you go on the forums, they do talk about the limitations (e.g. this is a single year sample), so perhaps have a trustworthy nose, and I'd be interested in your thoughts if you get a chance to look it over.
Finally, a nitpick for the sake of clarity:
Yes, per DM's metric, whatever it may be, Lin has a higher win rate than Parsons. However, once you introduced rate, you have opened the door for other lower minute players to enter the picture. Remember, you said:
"Lin had the 3rd highest win rate on the team"
That may still be the case. However, it is not irrefutable (e.g. someone else could be behind JH and OA. My guess would be GS).
*Arrgh. Perhaps *you* have a trustworthy nose (reference to smell test)
DeleteI just read up briefly on how RAPM is calculated.
DeleteIt's safe to say it's the root of squared variance between projected and actual statistics?
My guess is the assumption on improvement over raw +/- is it improves on the correlation between individual contribution projection (Y) with other known data (X) such as who are on the floor during the time in which the player in question is on the floor.
I am not sure whether what I just described is an idealized form of what RAPM should be or how it's actually calculated because I haven't seen any sources on what the X input variables are used for the regression analysis.
So, depending on how simple or complext the x input data set is, RAPM could be a very good correlation improver or simply something that moves data towards "regressing to the mean" to make it appear like the data has better correlation but doesn't really do much in terms of reflecting "reality".
DeleteAh, so v-zero from apbr.org calculated RAPM since January:
Deletehttp://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8194
I see where you got those numbers: From his initial calculations before he used included past season data:
https://docs.google.com/a/michaelterry.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqnFn6ok911sdDU3TjBpZ1dWUkhGSnFMc2dnVUhxN0E#gid=0
He updated his his post with a link to calculations that incorporated previous years' data and the numbers look a lot more sensible:
https://docs.google.com/a/michaelterry.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqnFn6ok911sdFVmQ3MxN29teWJkRXByQ0theUZnM2c#gid=0
Rank Name Rating ORating DRating Pos Team
5 James Harden 5.6 6.6 -0.9 5472 Houston Rockets
87 Chandler Parsons 1.2 0.5 0.6 5210 Houston Rockets
89 Omer Asik 1.1 -1.7 2.9 4357 Houston Rockets
132 Jeremy Lin 0.2 0.1 0.1 4673 Houston Rockets
190 Patrick Beverley -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 976 Houston Rockets
This was through March 30. James Harden is the only player in the top 34 with a negative DRating. As noted, this is only the same sort of model that Morey uses for evaluation, not the precise one. We can expect them to be correlated, but Morey's model has Parson's and Lin's ratings nearly the same, meaning either a difference in models, or Lin played better and Parsons worse, down the stretch.
Oh sure, rate is just another thing to consider. If a player with lower minutes has a high rate, it bears paying attention to whether they should have a bigger role.
Delete@Michael
DeleteThanks for this. And I'm in complete agreement with your final paragraph.
Question for you (and I hope I'm clear on this, because I'm on shaky ground in understanding as it is):
While using prior informed is obviously more accurate, if the question one was asking was simply to rank the efficacy of players *on the same team in a single season*, do you think using the single year non prior informed RAPM is valid (at all)? Or is it really just garbage for lack of data?
I dunno, am I making any sense at all?
@Nom,
DeleteI don't know. I can't argue from the maths because I'm neither a statistician nor a mathematician. In fact, understanding the maths on this is something I'd like to do, preferably to the point that I can do the calculations myself, but I've got a lot of work to do.
Instead, I'd try to answer your question by test. Do the intra-team rankings match between single year calculations and multiyear? It appears they don't:
Multiyear:
Rank Name Rating ORating DRating Pos Team
5 James Harden 5.6 6.6 -0.9 5472 Houston Rockets
87 Chandler Parsons 1.2 0.5 0.6 5210 Houston Rockets
89 Omer Asik 1.1 -1.7 2.9 4357 Houston Rockets
132 Jeremy Lin 0.2 0.1 0.1 4673 Houston Rockets
190 Patrick Beverley -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 976 Houston Rockets
Single year:
Rank Name Rating ORating DRating Pos Team
9 Omer Asik 4.0 1.2 2.8 4357 Houston Rockets
36 Patrick Beverley 2.7 1.4 1.4 976 Houston Rockets
134 James Harden 0.4 2.1 -1.7 5472 Houston Rockets
178 Chandler Parsons -0.1 -0.8 0.7 5210 Houston Rockets
238 Jeremy Lin -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 4673 Houston Rockets
There are discrepancies.
@Etane,
I think you're right. It's a solution to an error minimization problem where the inputs are the collection of equations for line-up data broken down into streaks of 5x5 play and the variables are the players. In theory, the method used, "ridge regression", is better than APM because it has constraints such that players with minimal data can't have values that run away.
Have you seen this?
http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2011/nba-stats/a-review-of-adjusted-plusminus-and-stabilization/
One thing I don't understand is that, in my understanding of Bayesian stats, the priors would be the previous years' data. But if you look at J.E.'s site that corresponds to the spreadsheet incorporating previous years, its title is "2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30". What am I missing?
v-zero's I mean. JE is the guy who originally developed it. v-zero has picked it up.
DeleteWhat do you guys do? College, job? I'm a software developer. I've thought about putting up a Rockets site that posted up-to-date advanced stats like RAPM. Understanding and calculating RAPM would be a good first step.
"There are discrepancies."
DeleteYou've gotten to the heart of the matter.
So my concern is that, despite the fact that NPI RAPM is inferior, is it so inferior as to be pointless, or is it the best case for the 2012-2013 Rockets?
CP is the only guy whose PI RAPM I would trust, as he's the only returning player, but I can't because what is the difference between a new player and an "only returning" one? JH and OA are both coming off the bench, which I realize is taken into account, but not only are their 2012-3 minutes so much more than before, the quality (in the sense of how they were used) of those minutes are different. Lin has the NYK Lin/HOU Lin dichomtomy; actually this one might be ok, other than his usage (high 20's vs low 20's) his rates are surprisingly similar. And since Bev is a rookie and didn't even play an entire NBA season, who knows what that's worth?
Eh, these are mostly rhetorical questions as you've already commented on bits and pieces in one way or another. I'm ranting because it's so annoying to know DM is ahead of the curve on this and has answers (and even better, more questions) that we will never (well, maybe one day) be privy to. Anyways, thanks for your work and replies.
MT: I am a business analyst. I use regression to forecast such things as product sales and inventory, revenue trending and agile marketing.
DeleteDisclaimer - I am not a math whiz. I do all my calculations in excel.
I don't know which site is J.E.'s. However, based on the title name "2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30, I have to conclude that an extrapolation is used in place of historical data.
This arguably is more accurate than using prior year data depending on the extrapolation methodology since data is volatile such as players either matured or aged versus previous PY as well as change in dynamics ie. players traded, different head coach etc..
I apologize but you can say I am a student of trying to understand what DM's contributes to winning basketball games.
DeleteHe does seem to be good at contributing to building a high valued portfolio of under valued players.
That might not be the case if you don't have players like Lin there making all the butter fingers and the young players who has no idea what to do in a motion offense look passable.
@Nom,
DeleteI don't think CP being on the team the previous year makes his number more accurate because almost all his teammates are new. It would be one thing if, e.g., Lin had come to a homogeneous team, but pretty much all the line-up equations that the players share, including CP, come from this year.
I would think this makes their ratings more accurate as a comparison to players league wide, because they have more equations as teammates with other players in the league and using other systems. On the other hand, it makes teammate-relative rankings less accurate, because we have only have one season's worth of data for shared line-ups.
@Etane,
DeleteHere's the weird thing. Here his first link is to a spreadsheet "Single Year Prior Informed":
https://docs.google.com/a/michaelterry.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqnFn6ok911sdFVmQ3MxN29teWJkRXByQ0theUZnM2c#gid=0
...which has the same numbers as this page with a URL:
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30
...that claims it is non-prior informed. I can only think it's a mistake.
@KHuang,
DeleteI share your muscular self-confidence in Lin's abilities as judged by the eye test. My goal in interpreting statistics is to demonstrate his effect in a concise, inarguable, and brief way. As with wit, brevity is the soul of rhetoric.
If only I can share the same amount of faith in numbers as Michael Terry, I will be a happy man. But those numbers don't explain other variables that are not in the equation but have just as much impact for the end result.
DeleteIf a more individual team sport like say baseball, I will have more faith in it. But basketball is much harder to approach statistically, soccer is even much harder.
These are really long posts, good works guys.
DeleteI like looking at all sides, @Rikki. You've seen me make many qualitative arguments about Lin's game. You've seen me analyze individual plays, criticize refs, evaluate coaching psychology, critique shot selection and technique...there are countless factors effecting Lin's career and I'm interested in all of them. :)
DeleteThe Lin puzzle fascinates me. It's small enough to be tractable but large enough to hook me. How is it that a player with league leading athleticism and a record breaking start to his career be treated with such uniform indifference at best and contempt at worst?
*affecting
DeleteBy the way, Michael Terry, I consider Lin a "high usage" player on DEFENSE.
DeleteEvery game, I see Lin getting stop after stop. Most of them go unnoticed because the opposing offense simply resets with fans not realizing that Lin prevented a score.
Lin flies around the court, to the chagrin of many fans. Yet he is quick and long enough to contest the majority of bailout perimeter shots if he goes down to double.
What's frustrating for me is that Lin will be working so hard to get stops but Parsons, Delfino, and especially Harden and Bev get repeatedly attacked with little defensive resistance. This results in bad defensive team numbers that make Lin look worse than he really is.
Exactly, Michael Terry. Maybe we should get a sociologist and psychiatrist expert too to break down other variables of Jeremy that we have no tools to comprehend with.
DeleteThe Rockets seriously need some serious auditing
MT: in either of those files you linked, I don't see the source file, the inputs. It only has outputs. It would be nice to be able to see the secret sauce. At least, that's what I thought the difference were between those the two but guess not.
DeleteI'm not surprised Morey saying that Jeremy is the same as Parsons in terms win contribution. Parsons got very good numbers this year, but he was the most benefited one in the team playing along with James Harden and Jeremy Lin. More details here:
Deletehttp://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7976758&postcount=19
regarding where his points come from. 50% of his shots were fed by James Harden and Jeremy Lin, and he takes the second most FGA in the team. He's shot at rim was almost 70% assisted, which is the most efficient shot, whereas last year, his at rim shot only have 50% assisted, that means, it would be much harder for him to take those high efficient shot last season than this season.
With Jeremy and Harden create for him, Parsons was taking a lot more shots, and lot more easy shots. That fact contribute a lot more than his improvement in his shot percentage.
So for him, if he is not playing along James Harden and Jeremy Lin, he would not be as effective as now, his success is more depends on other people than himself, thus would not be easily translated to other teams or other line up.
On the other hand, Jeremy not only could earn points, but he also create for other people, with the highest AST% in the team. He could win games without James and Parsons. I know James would win games without Jeremy and Parsons, but I don't think Parsons could do much without Jeremy and Harden.
So, Parsons' points of course contribute to team win, but I'm pretty sure with more advanced data analysis, Morey should realize Jeremy is more important than Parsons.
Also, conventional data available in the public domain all have some major defect, those numbers are not painting a complete picture, thus GMs better not just rely on those numbers as normal fans do.
At least those commonly used defensive rating is really not telling much.
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7983624&postcount=27
This is the argument how useless DRtg is. Whereas a lot people arguing Beverley has better defense thus he has much better DRtg. THAT'S NOT TRUE.
@TN4
DeleteAre you TTNN? If so, that is an absolutely wonderful post. Please know that the work and effort you put into it is recognized.
re: "thus GMs better not just rely on those numbers as normal fans do. "
No way they do (at least DM). If you use WS (BR) or EWA (ESPN) the rank is JH/CP/OA/JL. But DM says JH/OA/CP=JL.
So obviously, whatever his equivalent of the WS concept is, it's different (and way more sophisticated). I'd like to think it somehow incorporates SportVU (I mean, why not, Les paid enough for it). Not only do us normal fans have no access to it, half the NBA doesn't, either.
@Nom
Deleteyeah, it's me. :) Thanks for your compliment, really new to bball world, thus trying to understand what those number means.
I agree, it got to be analysis relate to SportVU, whereas all the movement, assist, hockey assist got tracked visually, current traditional data could not even track one's opponents, most data was based on offensive numbers that recorded, such as points, 3pt, block, assist etc. They could not even accurately track usage. Ever wonder how come Beverley has very comparable numbers with Jeremy in per 36 min all across board, but have 10 points higher in offensive rating? He has the same offensive rating as James Harden, better than Parsons too.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJLIN Q&A DETAILS ETC
ReplyDeleteRoy Hibbert, obstacle to Heat repeat
ReplyDeleteWhile Roy Hibbert shines, Pacers’ defense truly thrives as a collective
DeleteRoy Hibbert fined $75,000 for “inappropriate and vulgar language” in postgame interview
DeleteI still remember the time when Harden played against Paul George. He really destroyed the thing that Harden was unstoppable. Nobody is unstoppable even LBJ is stoppable. Hope Harden would humble himself and play to help the team.
DeleteI was laughing like crazy watching Harden yelling at teammates to cover players for him in defense. This kind of leader stings.
JLIN'S STASH [CALI]
ReplyDeletewe're seriously going to fight over shoe storage space
Deletehi, via.
Deletethis made my little guy's day. :)
All these stats are worthless because people judge a player's performance on their playoff impact. I personally think that is so foolish because if it wasn't for Lin's solid season, Rox wouldn't have been in the first round and EVERYONE knows it down deep. Look at Tyson Chandler, he had a great year and bec he got injured and couldn't help during playoffs, people are calling him a bust. NBA is an unforgiving industry. Who knows what will become of Lin, I just hope he is in the right place next year , and is given the opportunity to prove his worth.
ReplyDeleteYeap, you are right about that. Beginning and the end are what people remember the most.
DeleteThat's why NBA coaches and players are paid big money, Rose -
Deleteto endure the criticism and wallow in the praise.
In the end, the NBA is SHOW BUSINESS and is merely paid entertainment for us fans!
Baby steps, @Rose. Morey doesn't judge a player's performance only on playoff impact, especially not when there are extenuating circumstances. As you read news around the league, you know that other management's also know that Lin is worth something. Maybe they don't think he's a star, but all he needs is minutes. Stardom will come eventually if he keeps getting a chance. Lin has shown enough to have a good long career. I'm confident it will blossom sooner or later.
DeleteNot just minutes, Lin needs to have the ball too
DeleteStill the most reliable is eye test.
DeleteAll those statistics lie.
In the game with LA Clippers, Lin turnover the ball many times because the Clippers played to stop his passing. Lin made only 3 assists for the game. But as the point guard, the ball moved well and they defeated the Clippers even without Harden.
Lin had a good game and the statistics wouldn't show much of it. If you watched the game, you would understand Lin was controlling the tempo of the game.
I think what distinguishes Lin from Harden and Beverley is Lin keeps on attacking and moving the ball while Harden and Beverley have waited for things to happen.
ReplyDeleteWhen Lin was moving with the ball in hands, (Asik, Parsons, Smith, DMO...) started rotating because they know that Lin would give them the ball if they were in position to score. Everyone moved well. Lin had so many blown assists either with teammates missing the shots, getting fouled, and worst of all lost the handle of the ball. His contribution would definitely be greater if he consistently has someone to set the screen for him on pick and rolls.
But I really developed a feeling that the coaches do not want Lin to do well. They started taking away his minutes and gave it to the struggling Harden. Harden got to stay on the court no matter how many turnovers he made. They wouldn't rest him. McHale put Lin on short leash. In the fourth quarter, if Beverly did well, Lin would sit on the bench for a long time until the Rox started losing by a lot. Then Lin would be sent in the game in the last minutes to take the blame.
"what distinguishes Lin from Harden and Beverley is Lin keeps on attacking ... while Harden and Beverley have waited for things to happen."
DeleteNo. Harden and Beverly are both aggressive, attacking players.
"When Lin was moving with the ball in hands ... started rotating because they know that Lin would give them the ball if they were in position to score. Everyone moved well. "
Because Lin is a PG, that is his job and everyone acts accordingly. They didn't do this with Harden because Harden is a scoring guard, and everyone knew that Harden was going to focus on getting his own shot first because scoring is Harden's job.
"But I really developed a feeling that the coaches do not want Lin to do well. They started taking away his minutes and gave it to the struggling Harden. Harden got to stay on the court no matter how many turnovers he made. They wouldn't rest him. McHale put Lin on short leash."
Apples and oranges. Harden is the Rockets' best scorer, more effective, creative and diverse than Lin. Yes if Lin had the ball as much as Harden did he would score more, but Harden scored 18 ppg with the Thunder as a bench player with Westbrook and Durant scoring 23 and 28 ppg and handling the ball. Put Harden in Lin's role, he still scores 20 ppg. But if Lin had Harden's role with the Rox, defenses would exploit his limitations. He leads the Rox in scoring, but he turns the ball over a lot more and takes a beating. What Jason Terry said last year had a lot of truth in it: D'Antoni's system allowed Lin to exploit the strengths and mask the weaknesses. The Rockets couldn't run D'Antoni ball because they don't have the players for it. So Lin being the main guy on offense would have required him to do the things that aren't strong areas in his game right now a lot more.
Recognizing that Harden is the better scorer is not favoritism, and neither is giving your top scorer more freedom to play through slumps and make mistakes. Also turnovers are a much bigger issue for PGs than they are for SGs. Where SGs are expected to take risks while trying to score, it is the PGs job to protect the ball. The TOs were not a big issue during Linsanity because then Lin was the main scorer, so he had more freedom to take more risks. But in Houston it was a different offense, roles and expectations.
Harden for the most part handled the role that the Rockets gave him very well. He made a lot of mistakes in his role, sure, but so did Lin. Lin really struggled with his shot for a good part of the season. Yes a lot of it was because he was not the main ballhandler, but his needing a specific role or offense is because of limitations that Harden does not have. Harden will be effective no matter the role or offense. Put Harden in an off the ball role with Chris Paul or Derrick Rose and he does fine just like he did with Westbrook.
Lin just has to add offensive skills to his game to be a more effective scorer. He will do so starting this offseason, and then the coaches will reward him with more chances. The coaches don't want Harden to just shoot and shoot. They want Lin and Harden to shoot less but score more. Lin and Harden shot about 44% from the floor, not terrible not but great either. If Lin gets better with his outside shot and adds more offensive moves he scores at 48% and takes more shots. Harden takes fewer shots but his percentage goes up to 46%, and both guys have fewer turnovers. That is what the coaches want.
Actually, Unknown and I think alike. If Harden could continue to do what he does but pass earlier and look for teammates more, i.e., be more of a team player, he's fine. I 100% agree that Lin has to add more offensive skills to his game. Lin is already a solid player, but he needs to become a more diverse offensive player to go higher.
DeleteWhat are the offensive skills that Harden has that Lin has to add?
DeleteHarden plays best when he draws the defense away from his teammates then sets them up for easy shots. This in turn created open shots for Harden.
DeleteHe went away from that probably to boost his stats just weeks before the AS game.
So, I know Harden can play in a style that keeps all his teammates involved but he simply chose not to do so.
Harden is the better scorer, but that's beside the point. Harden would score just as much if he agreed to play off Lin more, and the offense would become more efficient, and other players would feel more involved and thus contribute on defense more. It's not an either/or situation as you paint it, @Unknown. Moreoever, Lin is a great scorer when the ball in his hand and he's allowed to make plays. His playmaking lifts the team more than Harden's does, whereas Harden is still a great scorer even when he's not the primary playmaker. It makes little sense not to divide the responsibilities in a way that promotes both players' strengths.
DeleteWhat are the offensive skills that Harden has that Lin has to add?
Delete1. Drawing fouls -- 50% of Harden's offensive skills comes from this ability IMO.
2. Quick step back and jumper.
3. Harden is physically stronger IMO in going to the basket.
4. Euro-step.
5. Cross over, not between his legs but you know what I mean. No question in my mind that Harden is a more savvy offensive player. His herky-jerky style is effective because no one else does it like him. Also, the fact that Harden is left-handed is a big advantage.
No question in my mind Harden is a great offensive force (although less than Melo IMO because a bib portion of Harden's offensive skills comes from his ability to draw fouls -- I actually think he cheats by leaning into or pushing his arms into his defenders to draw fouls).
To be fair, if Harden plays more team ball BB, then I can see why Mac and GM think Harden should handle the ball more, because Harden does have the ability to draw people and make good passes when he's driving in. But other than that, Lin has a better passing skill overall.
DeleteI do agree Harden would score just as much even if he plays off the ball, but psychologically, Harden probably feels more comfortable with the ball. Either Harden has to play more team ball, or Lin has to handle the ball more. Basically, I think it's up to Harden to make Rockets better; therefore, I blame Harden (and Mac and GM) for any short-comings of Rockets overall. Lin did as well as he could during the regular season, so I don't blame him.
DeleteSo many teams think they can get the championship by signing D12. The fact is none of the teams with Howard did earn the championship. What seems to be the problem?
ReplyDeleteHoward couldn't even shoot free throws. He couldn't shoot 3 pointers. How can you expect him to help the Rockets. What he could do, Asik had already done and at less than 40% of his salary.
All that hype about Dwight Howard going to Houston is crazy.
Perhaps he should go to the Rox and get the coaches and GM fired.
"What he could do, Asik had already done and at less than 40% of his salary."
DeleteYou are aware that Howard provides twice as many points and blocked shots and even more rebounds than Asik, right? Where Asik is a liability on offense because he can't reliably shoot, pass (less than 1 assist per game) or score from the post, Howard is a dominating offensive player who makes his teammates better.
A lot of you guys seem to think that if Howard comes to the Rockets, it will marginalize Lin even more. Instead, the opposite is actually true. The Rockets relied on an iso-heavy offense with Harden and Parsons precisely because they were so offensively bad at center and PF. (I will go ahead and add in Parsons, who despite being a 6'9" forward is more of a wing player than a paint/low post player.) The Rockets had to use that strategy in order to overcome basically being 3 on 5 on offense.
But give them a real low post scoring threat with Howard, and that changes the whole offense. It will give the Rockets the ability to use a real strategy and actual set plays on offense: low post, high post, screen and roll, pick and roll, you name it. And since they would be running a real offense, that would mean needing the point guard to run it. Harden wouldn't be the primary ball-handler because he looks for his own shot first, second and third. Lin would handle the ball and throw it in to Howard and run other plays, and there would be a lot fewer isos for Harden and Chandler as a result.
Lin would handle the ball more, score more, have a MUCH higher scoring percentage, and get A LOT more assists. Getting a dominant PF like Howard (or like Al Horford) is actually exactly what Lin needs and is what Lin fans should root for.
That's what I said.
DeleteI don't think whether Lin will get more playing time is reflected by what he does on the court rather it's more effected by how well Lin can play his typecast role of bringing the ball up pass the half court line before dumping the ball off to Harden.
DeleteAlthough, having a big man who can catch and dunk above the rim a la Tyson Chandler will make it easier for Lin to transition from spot up shooter and back to his point guard role.
But, I am a glass half empty type of guy.
Most likely, Harden will continue hogging the ball. And, now, there's just one more tall guy in the paint to dump the ball off to when there's only 2 seconds left on the shot clock.
Also, I don't feel D12 has as much impact on the game as a few years ago. He either still has health issues or he never clicked with D'antoni?
Now this I agree with, @Unknown. Lin shines at getting post players easy points, he's better at it than Harden (even though Harden is also very good), and the staff will let him do it all day long. This is why I comfortable with Lin's future. He's either going to be a major piece of a championship contender next year featuring D12, or shipped off to a situation that's probably more favorable to him as an individual player.
DeleteThe big difference is Lin will often look to dump the ball to DH, whereas Harden will wait till 2 or 3 seconds left. That's why DH being in Rockets favors Lin. But then, I think this would also favor PB because he probably dump the ball all day.
DeleteWell I'm gonna make a u turn: in my opinion Chris Paul and Dwight Howard will end up together in miami. Rockets will get josh smith so Lin will stay in houston with kevjumba :D
ReplyDeletepapers from h-town will change their mind over jeremy and Mchale will give him the ball more.
That's my thought. Let's see if it'll be true :D
Let's see what the Rox buy in 2013. If they only get D12 they just want to develop All Stars to jazz up their team. If they're serious about the championship they need to get talented defensive players as well, not just leaving it to Lin and Asik to defend and the others to pad their stats.
DeleteHoly cow. A wall of text.
ReplyDeleteDidn't read thru all the comments but one point sticks out. How Lin does next season depends on not how much he has improved in the off season, but how much the coaches limit his play. The more I think about it, the more this point rings true.
If Lin gets the freedom he got under dantoni, he will find a way to do it. However, if McHale just wants him to protect the ball and play "safe" while the "superstars" do their thing, that what Lin will do.
You cannot possibly think at this pount that McHale and Morey have high expectations for Lin - that they envision him to play a focal point in offense. I am sure Lin will improve as a player, but I can't help but believe that nothing will significantly change unless McHale entrusts Lin to play a more focal point in this offense.
Well, true.... try to think this way. Even if Lin still only shoot 10 times a game, if he improves during the summer, he will make all 10 shots...which is a significant improvement. lol just day dreaming.
Delete"How Lin does next season depends on... how much the coaches limit his play."
Delete@Solidz
Have you ever watched Lin and thought he maybe hesitated to take a shot?
Have you ever seen him put himself into position to take a shot (say a lay up), but instead throw the ball out to a spot up shooter?
Have you ever seen him be given the ball during a half court set, but then pass it away to someone not in position to give him an assist (or hockey assist for that matter)?
If no, then we are done. If yes to any one, how is it on the coaches?
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteNom: No one on this site has hammered Lin on those specific points you pointed out as much as Solidz has. So maybe what you just posted is meant to be rhetorical?
DeleteI think the main point to Solidz post is NOT that Lin doesn't have room for improvement but the main bottleneck to Lin's performance in the coming year will continue to be the coaching just like it was in the previous season.
Lol.... Nom, my answer to your question is no.
DeleteSeriously, as Etane has pointed out, Lin did frustrate me with all of those points Nom mentioned.
But one of the big reasons is McHale doing everything he can to undermine Lin's confidence. Nothing pissed me off more than Lin getting inexplicably benched, getting called out as a selfish player, etc etc. a lot of hesitation came from Lin's lack if confidence and u just cant ignore McHale's role in that. If you don't see that, them we have nothing to talk about .. Cause obviously ur blind.
When did Lin get called out as a selfish player?
Delete"How Lin does next season depends on not how much he has improved in the off season, but how much the coaches limit his play."
DeleteI don't agree with the above. I mean, it goes without saying that the more ideal the circumstances Lin finds himself in the more opportunity he'll get and the better his numbers will be. However, even under the less than ideal circumstances of last season... he could have done much better in various ways. Had his shooting been a little more consistent his numbers would have been significantly better, etc. So I still think Lin can show his ability on a higher level if he improves significantly over the off-season. Also, now that he has a whole year of starting under his belt and in addition to that he won't be beginning the season injured.... his momentum will be totally different in next season which should lead to an even higher level of play independent of off-season improvement. I am not in the camp of "Mchale's the reason". Everyone wants ideal circumstances... but Lin still has an opportunity in the NBA that many don't regardless of how ideal or not ideal the circumstances are and he has to rise to the occasion.
30 pts and 10 assists? I am trying to tell Lin we're trying to win here.
DeleteEtane, what does your statement mean? I have no idea who said it or when and what source you found it from. I'm not saying there isn't validity to it, but without further details it's hard to take seriously.
DeleteBamboo where da eff have u been all season?
DeleteAgain, ur intentional blindness is mind boggling. If you have followed Lin closely through out the season, u wouldn't be oblivious to this documented quote. And there is no other way to interpret it.
And I was a first hand court side witness to McHale's inexplicable criticism of Lin at the half of first sac game - the one when he had first dunk of the season and chandler's horrendous shooting led to the loss.
DeleteIf u really think that the coaches had an insignificant role in demolishing Lin's confidence, u have obviously not seen enough games and ur words mean nada.
@Etane
DeleteYes, sorry I wasn't clear, it was rhetorical; I am aware of Solidz' position on that matter and had I been posting at the time I would have supported him on those points 100%
@Solidz
"my answer to your question is no."
"we have nothing to talk about .. Cause obviously ur blind."
That's too bad. You were the only one who I thought I could talk to.
Regrettably,
Your ex-friend bat
@Bamboo
It's a play on a "quote" found here that's become a bit hackneyed.
Note the source. I would love to see a legitimate corroboration (or even better, link to the actual interview) but have been unsuccessful (any help, via?).
I think both arguments are valid: he has to become a better off-ball player and also he has to be allowed to handle the ball more. It's too bad Harden is too young to realize that he needs to become a better team BB player in order for Rockets to advance further.
Delete@eb
Delete"It's too bad Harden is too young"
Are you kidding? It's great that he is this young, and presumably as stupid as anyone else in their early 20's (myself included at the time, and apologies to anyone <=23).
At least there's hope for redemption. If this was his mature game, I'd probably be agreeing with the majority on this board re: him.
I am horribly offended. = D
DeleteTake that, whippersnapper!
DeleteBamboo usually shows up here whenever he needs to defend CP25, McHell, Moldy and the Rockets. He also always stresses that if only Lin were better or had improved at this and that, the coaches would have allowed him to do this and that. Between the lines, Bamboo is implying that Lin is a not good enough player and he deserves to be punished by the coaches and his teammates.
DeleteWe have to trace back the old threads during the regular season to read Bamboo's posts in order to understand why he had multiple memory lapses about McHell's remarks on Lin's quarterback throw, selfishness, etc, etc.
Some astute posters had already pointed out that Bamboo is a troll. Go read those old threads, people.
Moon Lighter, stop putting words in my mouth and stop being so obsessed with me. Stop this troll nonsense. This is a place where we discuss Jeremy Lin..... we're not always going to agree on things. This IS NOT A CULT
DeleteI should say this again... THis place is NOT A CULT.
Dude, relax, there are different lines of thought out there.
Well Solidz, while I don't think Lin's in an ideal situation, he's still the staring pg. And Mchale isn't going anywhere next season.
DeleteThere *is* one variable that can absolutely change even if other variables don't:
Lin's game.
Of course I think Lin would put up more impressive numbers in a different system: But he is where he is.
And, look, just as I know Lin would put up more impressive numbers in a different system I also know that if Lin can get better in key areas of his game, he *can* put up better numbers where he is even if the circumstances go unchanged.
Moon Lighter,
DeleteRemember Lin did shoot poorly in the beginning of the season. He wasn't fully recovered from his injury so that played a role, but the fact was he did shot poorly.
He mad good improvements from the middle to the end of the season which was great to see.
A lot of analysis and nba players who have played in this league a long while have said that sometimes it is luck into getting into a good team or environment that suits a player. I think we are seeing a perfect example of that.
Another example is Nate Robinson. He was on 5 teams in the last 4 years. In this playoff series and also the latter half of the Bulls season, he got a great chance in the system where they had great defensive players around and a coach that let him shoot freely.
I think one positive aspect is that it forces Lin to work on his shooting and playing off the ball some. That being said, he had some great games this season where he played with the ball well, and also some games where Harden and Lin were together.
I do think the way Lin was handled had a damper on his confidence.... but I do not, for a second, think that Lin is the only NBA player who is mishandled. So this isn't some freak thing as some seem to suggest. Anyways... I really think having a full season as a starter under his belt will lead to an even better season come next season. I think it has a pretty big psychological impact on the mind. And even if Mchale's handling of Lin has put a damper on his confidence... then I call for Lin to rise above that. He' getting payed some serious cash and he's one of the best basketball players on the Planet. This isn't too much to ask. And he can do it if he puts his mind to it.
DeleteI disagree. I rarely see a high profile acquisition being handled as badly as Lin was last season. Getting yelled at for no effing reason.. Like the clipper game or Sacramento game like a freaking rookie is very rare. Things like this happen if there is an agenda against a player.. And the last thing Lin was a selfish player who needed reebuke.
DeletePeople often compare Lin situation to tony Parker. Well my knock against that is McHale is not Pops. What McHale was doing was either out of sheer malice or complete ignorance about Lin's game - either way McHale is an dickhole.
Yes Lin can improve as a player and some if the fault lies with Lin in that he just took it like he was at fault. But McHale doesn't give me any confidence that he is about helping Lin reach his potential - and Lin already has do many variables stacked against him that without a supportive coach, it will be extremely difficult for Lin to get there just by improving his game.
Solidz75 and Bamboo Forest,
DeleteYou guys have brought up good points. Especially Bamboo when you said Lin isn't the only player forced to play in a position/style that isn't his strength.
Solidz75 you are correct in saying Lin situation isn't like Parker. McHale isn't Pops as you said and the pieces around the team/offense is different. The spurs always heavily used the pick. The rockets not as much.
Here is another thing, I don't think Mchale is interested in helping any particular player reach their "potential". He wants to win with the players he has. In his eyes Harden can do what Lin can, but better(his opinion not necessarily mine). In addition the Rockets play a run-gun style of offense and whoever has the ball needs to bring up as fast as they can. That is why even sometimes Chandler/Delfino, brings up the ball instead of passing it to Lin/Harden. Again, that is just the strategy that they use. I think even Lin said at one point their style is "controlled chaos". Three or fours players can drive/handle the ball or shot, or at least that is what they were aiming to do. The strategy might alter a little once they get more time together or get players through signings/trades.
Furthermore, whenever you have two ball-dominate guards, one of their stats will have to suffer. There is only one ball. Harden needs the ball to be effective and so does Lin. When Harden was with the Thunders he came off the bench. In the last couple of years Manu has come off the bench as well.
McHell can't be so blind not to see Lin is a better ball facilitator than Harden is.
DeleteThe only times Houston go on winning streaks is when Lin IS the ball facilitator.
And, Houston claims to run a fast game but the game is turtle slow whenever Harden controls the ball.
Pretty much double standards against Lin no matter how you look at it. McHell is purposely blind not to see Lin's contribution to the team's achievements last season.
Etane,
DeleteI also think Lin is a better ball facilitator than Harden. I just think Mchale does not think so. He probably thinks they are similar.
In Harden's defense it is also his first year as a starter, so he might be trying to do a lot. Harden and Lin never had training camp together, it was pretty much pickup basketball. It might not be a big deal for other players, but when it is a starter playing major minutes then there will be some problems down the line.
Houston has gone on winning streaks win when both Harden and Lin both facilitate the ball together. At the end of the season both Lin and Harden have very similar assist numbers. Of course though, Harden does have more minutes and has the ball more.
Not blind, just choose using filter to block Lin out
DeleteJLIN fan, I'm not saying that McHale needs to coddle Lin. All I want a coach to do is to let a player play his game. Identify the area where a player excels at and place him in a position to succeed. U do that as a coach, u win some playoffs and maybe championships.
DeleteI'm not sure at what point in the offseason they decided to place this no system, make shift offense ( is it having too many new young players?) but if this is what Lin knew coming it, I highly doubt Lin would've chosen to come to Houston. What McHale is doing is a total disregard and disrespect for lin's game. And what Houston is doing is catering to whom they believe is the superstar of the team. They never believed in Lin like a lot of us believe in him. U go back and replay all the interviews in context, the prevailing theme will be clear.
If you were to ask Morey or McHale straight up what type of player they expect Lin to be, I have no doubt they would bring up chalmer's, fisher and the alike. If that's what they see in Lin, don't u think they would utilize Lin this way?
The silver lining is i would be very surprised if McHale is not exposed next year.. He is just not a good coach. He got a lot of kudos because of the youngest team moniker, but honestly what da eff did he do as a coach? As a meter of fact I think his ineptitude lost a quite a few games. I think to a degree there is a reason Les didn't give him an extension this year.
The thing is I don't know how Lin will be able to extricate himself from this. Will McHale change? - doubt. Will Lin be able to showcase his skills in a system that frowns on his creativity - enough for other teams to take chance on him when his time with Houston is up? - difficult.
While I don't want to wish any harm on anyone, the only way Lin could shine is if harden and bev gets hurt. He is the best when he is the primary ballhandler, THE.pg of the team. If he doesn't get that opportunity, I think it would be difficult to shine. The next season will sure be interesting. Perhaps the fan reaction in Asia this summer will show the Rox and mchalr he ain't To be effed with.
Solidz75,
DeleteWell thought out reply.
I think they wanted to use a run-gun strategy in the beginning, the roster is young and they have stamina.
They probably planned to have Lin be THE pg, with just an up-tempo style.
Here is the kicker though. Harden coming to the Rockets was an unknown to Morey and of course Lin when he signed. You said if Lin knew what was coming he would not have come to the Rockets. At the point Lin signed, Harden was not on the team. Morey was not sure if they could get a "star" shooting guard. The Rockets landing Harden was a surprise even for Morey. At that point, prior to Harden, I think most people thought Lin was going to be THE point guard. At what level? We can only speculate.
A lot of analysts were saying OKC made a big mistake, I for one tend to agree. Losing Harden was a huge blow to OKC, and when westbrook went down during the playoffs we saw exactly why.
Mchale, Les, Morey didn't plan on getting Harden. However,once they did and he had those back to back 40+ point games in the preseason Lin game changed because they saw what Harden could do with the ball.
If you were the staff and you saw those multiple 40+ games what would you do? Who would you let handle the ball more? Like I said they are both ball dominate guards. One of them has to play off the ball at least 50% of the time, and that is only if nobody else handles the rock.
Unfortunately(for Lin's role) the arrival of Harden made Lin play out of position,and it came because of Luck in a trade. If OKC had turned down Morey offer, which many thought they would, then we would have seen a completely different season in terms of Lin's role.
You are right when you say Lin is best when he is the primary ball handler. But so is Harden. If Lin always handles the ball, then Harden offensive ability will be diminished quite a bit.
The first season with the team was a little bit of an experiment. Lin did get aggressive as the season went on. He shot better and he drove to the rim more. I think that should carry on to the next season, we will have to see once new players come in.
Let me ask you this then. How would you construct the team? Provided that the core players stay i.e. chandlar, Harden, Lin, Asik ; how would you formulate their style?
Harden had the 1st 2 games scored efficiently when Lin played THE PG.
DeleteHarden scored 40+ pts in only 2 games. In those 2 games, Lin was THE PG.
Cam't imagine the Rox coaching staff can be so easily impressed by a Max contract player in just 2 games and oblivious to the contribution of other players.
livyrlife,
DeleteAre you sure Lin was THE pg during those games? I can't remember 100% but I recall Lin was camping at the three point line a lot as well as playing off the ball once Harden came during the preseason.
For sure he did after those games if not during.
JLin fan,
DeleteYes, I'm very sure. In fact psalm has done an excellent analysis on his blog
How to Fix Harden-Lin (Lost) Connection
Livyrlife,
DeleteI stand corrected then. Lin did get better as the season went on so there is strong hope. Also Lin usage rate is around 20.4-20.6, i think it should be a little higher next season.
Thanks, livyr.
DeleteWow, looking back at the numbers and remembering those 2 games, I think they're about the only times Lin was the primary PG and Harden was being 'polite' not to dominate. Then all hell broke loose.
Jlin fan, ideally Lin's usage rate should be ~22 in Houston's system similar to Dragic and Lowry. But Lin would need to be supremely confident in his shooting to take more FGA and FTA to increase his usage rate.
via and isabeli
ReplyDeleteHi ladies! Are you two going to be present during jeremy's FB QandA tonight? I hope you find time to join and throw him some interesting questions.Hopefully, he'll get to know this site and maybe give us a visit one day..i'm hoping i get one or questions answered tonight...i'll let u know... Im excited...via, u probably can join the quiz, being a jeremy insider(lol) and isabeli, u can join the art /photo contest..if one of u win, i'll share the prize!!fair deal?
what are you going to ask?
Delete..., might make him uncomfortable....,
DeleteI joined his Q&A. didn't answer. not surprised.
Deletehey! are you the same jlin4ever , whom he said has the best first name , in that FB Q%A?
Deletechan c
DeleteYep!!it was my sister who asked the "dumb" question which i think is the way to get his attention...she knows so well when jlin is coming but yet got a reply... however, i think it was my FB name that got his attention... how i wished he replied to one of my more sensible questions..sigh...
Brent
ReplyDeleteA whole lot! I want to do a one on one interview with him. But first and foremost is to ask him if he ever knew that this fansite exist and if he can give us time to post his thoughts during off season..i think it's time that jlin read the intelligent posts here and maybe pick up some impt pointers to improve his bb skills ..i also want to get his thought on the trade rumors but it might make uncomfortable...but i'll give it a shot..if u have any question that might be of interest to the fans here, let me know and i'll see if i could throw one at him..
Jason Kidd has retired.
ReplyDeleteObviously he had a wonderful NBA career.
I see many similarities between Kidd and Lin. I also think that Kidd would be a good mentor for Lin.
Agree as usual khuang. It was true he went to new york to mentor Lin... A season with melo is devastating
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeletePerhaps Lin can pick his brain by reaching out to JKidd during the off-season.
Delete19 years in the NBA is quite the staying power that Lin can aspire to.
I agree they both have a lot of similarities, KHuang. Both are big PGs (6'3''-6'4'') with great court vision. Lin is faster but Kidd was a better rebounder. And they both have CA roots.
In NBA, it takes talent to hog the ball. The way I look at it, if you are not considered a star player, if you hog the ball, you will be made to sit on the bench. Therefore, the very fact that you can hog the ball and get away with it means you are "considered" a star player. I say this half facetiously but half seriously. I think that's as good as any way to measure whether you are a star player or not, unless of course, you have a coach like Popovich who will scream at even star players and sit them on the bench.
ReplyDeleteOf course, when your star player is Duncan, all players will follow Duncan's example and not complain too much. This is also why Dwight Howard is not going to win a Championship for you.
DeleteOr, the star player can demand a coaching change if the coach doesn't allow the star player to hog the ball.
DeleteNot sure what u r implying, whether u r talking about Lin, but all Lin wants is to be THE pg of the team. Not a pg by committee but to play as the starting oh.
DeleteHogging the ball is jr smith going crazy, harden taking shots after shots after shots no matter what. That is not what Lin is asking for.
Brew, u mentioned how harden is able to draw fouls.. I think the refs caught into his antics toward the latter part if the season. I doubt he will get as many calls next season.. Harden is Going to have to make shots.
Wow .. A lot of autocorrects on the above post. Drew? WTF..
DeleteRight on, Solidz. The refs weren't giving Harden calls anymore toward the end of the season. It wasn't like how they robbed Lin, Harden still got all his legit calls. But the calculated hands in the air barreling into his opponent , stopped getting Harden to the line like it did initially. Also you said Lin wants to be point guard. If Lin stays in Houston, he needs to let that go. Houston, under McHale is not a point guard run team. Jeremy needs to take and make more shots or he will be considered an albatross and remain on the bench. (however if he makes more than Harden or Parsons the favored sons, that will get him benched as well) I hope i am wrong , but I don't think McHale wants Jeremy to succeed. Thoughts?
DeleteI believe Lin has a lot of luck on his side. There's a slight chance he gets traded this summer, but if not, I can see the teammates who ballhog getting hurt, forcing Lin into a larger role.
ReplyDeleteI think Lin did learn a lot this season and honestly he was ok, not bad, not great, he was an OK starter. Now this summer, I think Lin is really going to get A LOT better. And even if he is traded, his focus on improving what made him look weak in Houston will improve his overall game regardless of the system that he's in etc.
I give Lin till the end of his contract to get back to his All-Star caliber stats and effect on the game that he had in NYK. Truth be told, barring injury, he will probably get there even sooner than that.
I think Lin is going to try to ELIMINATE his "weaknesses" and come out shooting HOT this season, and give every teammate a run for their money. No coach can yell at Lin to shoot less if he nails every shot.
He may even fizzle out toward the middle of the season, but it seems NBA heads only notice the start and end of the season anyways, so Lin can stink during the season as long as he comes out hot and ends hot.
Speaking of Lin "fizzling out", he hasn't had a "sophomore slump" yet.
DeleteWhat I'm talking about is the dreaded slump that many 2nd year players go through after stellar rookie seasons.
Teams adjust to great rookies and try to force them out of their comfort zones. That, plus increased expectations and juggling of new roles, contributes to the slumping of performance experienced by so many 2nd year players.
Obviously Lin is no 2nd year player. Still, I myself haven't perceived any slumping in his shooting that wasn't due to a preexisting injury.
Should Lin start the season out firing the way swinglinezigzag predicts (very likely in my opinion), he might hit that slump. I look forward to seeing the new and improved Lin next season.
If Lin continues in Houston, he will play average of 25 minutes per game.
ReplyDeleteNo fan wants Lin to Houston in next season, so why continue?
Ulysses, what do you mean why continue? If he isn't traded in the summer which I don't think he will be he will have no choice.
DeleteTo put up the stats like Lin did in NY, he needs the ball in his hands more, but in the Rockets style of offense doesn't call for that.
Ulysses, I want Lin in Houston.
DeleteEven though I have misgivings about how he'll (not) be used next season, I am overall happy with him
playing 30 minutes a game as a starter. I'd prefer him get more touches, simply because I feel that the Rockets' best chance of winning is with Lin and not without him.
Unless somebody can come in and defend/pass/score/lead/win like Lin, I will be unhappy if Lin's minutes per game dip below 30. Now if Beverley comes in and starts drawing double teams and finishing at the rim and passing to open cutters and stopping guys from pirouetting him like a ballerina on defense, I MIGHT complain a little less. I can't see it happening, not because I think Bev is Lin's competition but because Bev has given no indication that he can do any of those things unless Lin is on the court protecting him.
Jeremy's Q and A was linsane...thousands of comments poured in in less than one hour..at this minute, he is watching the east finals with brother joseph that's why he is distracted...
ReplyDeleteI think if another superstar player comes to Rockets - be it Howard or Josh Smith, Jeremy will be placed more as spot up shooter rather than as a point guard. I think Mc is a coach who relies too much on deemed team "superstars" rather than skills.
ReplyDeleteThe irony is that the Rockets are purportedly the most statistically analytical team in the NBA but has a coach that still thinks that reputation alone wins games.
DeleteTruehoop had a great article about this recently, studying the impact of superstars vs role players. Truehoop concluded that it's not always the fame that wins the game.
some superstars let their reputation get into the games that most of the time it costs them wins. I've seen TONS of times Harden is initiating contact, trying to draw a foul and complaining when he didn't get the call. while drawing contact is part of the game, he tends to hog the ball TONS of times just so he can get the contact, even if there are other 4 players left open on the floor.
DeleteIf Howard comes to Houston, I see Jeremy being MORE involved. Dwight is an elite roll man and Jeremy's elite at hitting the roll man (while Harden excels at scoring himself off the PnR).
DeleteDwight also wants more low-post touches than ever, and you need someone to get him the ball. Again, Harden is not that type of playmaker. You need a real PG to do simple but nuanced half-court passing like that.
Interesting point that you raised, zxcvb.
DeleteIt's interesting if Dwight comes to Houston, will Lin or Harden be the one feeding him. Harden will certainly get the first choice but will it change the dynamic of the offense?
My guess it will fare better for Lin because the presence of Dwight in the paint will reduce Harden's chances to attack the rim. And Lin has proven he can play give-and-go with Tyson Chandler in NY.
So no worries, isabelijane :D
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYou guys here all worshiping Lin's cock sauce are such hilarious goofballs!
ReplyDeleteI have had so many good laughs reading through these threads. SO much estrogen in here lol!
If I ever get to feeling down, I am so grateful to know that I can simply come here and instantly feel better about myself, and rest assured that as bad as things may be at times, AT LEAST I am not you guys!
SUCH pathetic losers, riding this guy's dirty jockstrap here 24/7, LMFAO!
Dwightmare Part II rages on...
ReplyDeleteIt SOUNDS like he's leaning towards Houston, but who knows what's really going on? He and his agent could simply be pressuring the Lakers into installing the coach and system he wants.
If Dwight does sign with Houston, I don't see how they keep Asik with a glaring weakness at PF. They should trade him for a stretch 4...or maybe they'll package him with J-Lin for another "star."
The more I think about it, though, I'm happy with Jeremy staying in Houston for now. His shooting numbers improved dramatically in the 2nd half (e.g. 40% 3pt range) and now he gets a full, healthy preseason to train unlike last year.
troll alert UP: DO NOT RESPOND.even you, KHUang....
ReplyDelete