Saturday, March 23, 2013

Rockets vs Spurs Game #70 Pre Game Thread

Nice win but still confused and not happy with JLin's PT. I understand he had 2 fouls and came out a few minutes early in the first. Asik picked up his 2nd foul but did not come out at the end of the 1st.

You play your best players the most minutes. No complaints about Harden's (38.4) but do they really feel that Parsons (36.2) is the 2nd best player over JLin (32.4) and by that much? Makes zero sense to me.

Also, lets put some perspective on how well JLin has played so far in his career, even though this season he has not been given the green light and is treated like a third option.

John Wall - 2010 number 1 pick and likely max player:

per36min.

16.3 pts
8.1 asts
4.4 rebs
1.6 stls
.7 blks
3.8 tovs
.422 fg%
.242 3pfg%
.786 ft%

Jeremy Lin - 2010 undrafted supposedly overpaid at 8 mil a year.

per36min.

15.5
7.1
3.7
2.2
.4
3.6
.442
.328
.787

I don't see much of a difference between the two.

Finally, how about what really matters, wins and loses:

As a starter:
Wall 53-105
Lin 53-41

Big difference




124 comments:

  1. Superb comparisons as usual, JLinfan#1.

    I did not realize how similar these two guys were in individual statistics.

    Also, I'll bet Wall's Washington payroll exceeds Lin's Houston payroll. And let's not forget that Wall plays in the Leastern Conference as opposed to the Best Western Conference.

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    1. "Best Western Conference"

      Lol nice me like.

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  2. I find it strange that some of the older players are getting stronger as the playoffs get closer. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot are using some sort of performance enhancement supplements.

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    Replies
    1. Or maybe they just turn on a notch because its crunch time.

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    2. Or maybe they just know, by virtue of experience, how to pace themselves throughout the season.

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  3. maybe Jeremy should start sleeping in a oxygen chamber or train in high altitude.

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  4. As much as we complain about Jeremy's usage rate, I bet a lot of players are in his situation. It's just Lin's popularity that magnifies the situation. Trust me he deserves the time but not surprised anymore. Jeremy's situation would be much different if he has a more athletic center. A lot of his strengths depend on the center picking and rolling opening up the lane for him.

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  5. I do feel that McHale and in fact the whole Rockets management and fan base honestly think that Parsons is their 2nd best player and is that much better than Lin. Good luck to them for overpaying Parsons in a couple of years lol.

    But why should we be surprised? Let's not forget that this is the same coaching staff and management team who cut Lin before, the same one who drafted Marcus Morris over Faried and Leonard, Royce White over Andrew Nicholson. Morey might be savvy at trades but their player evaluation is mediocre at best beyond the most obvious ones.

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    1. are you serious? Morris over Faried and Leonard? That is just aweful. When I watch the Nuggets play since the all star break, I honestly are hoping they win the West Conference, if not the our Rockets. They show so much heart and team spirit, and energy, and of course, without a "superstar", Carl just knows how to coach and develop some of their young talents.

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    2. @Cara

      Does CP remind you of someone from your past? Who hurt you so much that compels you to bring up this point multiple times every thread? Does it get better? I hope you will one day find peace.

      re: Morey

      It's not about getting it right every time. It's about doing the "correct" thing enough times that maybe you get lucky and hit a payoff that makes all the other mistakes tolerable.

      I'll add another to your list: HOU picked PPat over Larry Sanders. Man would I love to have LS on the Rox right now.

      Delete
    3. Also on Daryl Morey's track record:

      Jonny Flynn over Jeremy Lin (!!!!)

      Royce White and Terrence Jones over Andrew Nicholson (!)

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    4. "coaching staff and management team who cut Lin before"

      "Jonny Flynn over Jeremy Lin (!!!!)"

      This one looks ludicrous in hindsight, or course, but not an apples to apples comparison. At the time, only one of these contracts was not guaranteed.

      In the end, all good things to those who wait. Lin gets $25M for 3 years, instead of the typical team friendly contract Morey has been doling out.

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    5. I understand Cara's frustration. CP is a fine player, but he is not a game changer like Lin. The coaching staff's love affair with CP is nauseating. Even when CP is hot, he can not get in and win the game by catching fire like Lin. Also, CP is a ball hog. I watch all the games and I can count on one hand the times I saw CP pass J Lin the ball.When J Lin is going Linsanity, he still includes all his teammates and makes them better. CP always gets long minutes even when he sucks. Lin is pulled immediately when his shot is not falling, even if he is helping in other ways. Even if J Lin is hot, he will sit if Beverly is playing well. There is no logic, only favoritism with these coaches and I relate to Cara's resentment toward CP because he is being spoiled and seems like a brown nosier.

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    6. I want Rox to succeed bec it is Lin's team, but every time CP bricks a pass from Jeremy I cringe. Jeremy looses so many assists bec of his teammates. Sadly, i find myself praying that PB sucks whenever he steps foot on the court, because i know McHale will keep Lin on the bench forever if his pet Pat is running around like a maniac trying to prove he is CP3 on defense.. It is a miracle Rox are where they are with McFail as coach. Of course, McFail will use J Lin as a last resort if he really needs help to win. Ugh!

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    7. Nom, Daryl Morey publicly admitted that his call to keep Jonny Flynn over Jeremy Lin was strictly a basketball decision and not a financial one.

      This is why I generally am not impressed by Morey's basketball decisionmaking.

      Delete
    8. Jonny Flynn, who is about the same age as Jeremy Lin (a few months younger and 6'0"), now plays in Australia, despite the fact that he's been showcased and empowered and nurtured to succeed by the coaches and GMs. Flynn was the 6th overall draft pick. And so many pundits have said that Lin's 28 game as an NBA starter is "TOO SMALL" a sample !!!!*&^%)#!!! compared to ZERO NBA games for brand new draftees !!!.... Idiots Racists!

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    9. @KHuang

      "Daryl Morey publicly admitted"

      I've never heard this. Not doubting you outright, but do you have a link or any evidence to substantiate this? Given some of your posts in the past, hopefully you can understand if I have to take this with a grain of salt.

      Delete
    10. That's because you're doubting me for personal reasons, not basketball ones.

      "And in many ways, it starts with Alexander, who says he should have overruled Morey when the general manager called him on Christmas Eve to tell the owner he'd be cutting the kid from Harvard"

      http://houston.culturemap.com/newsdetail/07-20-12-secret-story-behind-the-jeremy-lin-move-an-angry-hang-up-phone-call-changed-everything-for-houston-rockets-knicks/

      This why I take YOU with a grain of salt, thrown over my shoulder into oblivion.

      Delete
    11. “Even if he stayed here, we probably wouldn’t have recognized his talent as much as we should’ve,” Morey said. “He probably wouldn’t have played much at all, and then would’ve been released at the end of the year. I didn’t know he could play this well, and if I did, we would’ve kept him.”

      Daryl Morey on Jeremy Lin being cut for Jonny Flynn for BASKETBALL reasons, not contractual ones.

      http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-wojnarowski_jeremy_lin_knicks_rockets_nba_021412

      Also

      "We have 2 starting caliber PG in @Klow7 & @Goran_Dragic. @J_Flynn also playing well RT @cforcsar Lin, do we regret it that we waived him?"

      http://houston.sbnation.com/houston-rockets/2012/2/9/2787261/darryl-morey-jeremy-lin-houston-rockets-decision-cut

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  6. I don't think Parson's is better than Lin. However, in the same breath, I think Parson's is quite good for a second year player.

    I totally understand people's disappointment and even frustration with last night's game and Lin getting fewer minutes. However, from my perspective, if I was to pick my battles, this is not a game that I would emphasize too much only because I think Lin will actually benefit from playing less in last night's game that was a blowout (rest and health). If, though, Lin is not playing in the 4th and Beverly isn't doing anything other worldly, I'll be complaining with everybody else.

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  7. Oh, and I think Lin deserves TONS of credit for the Rocket's playing as well as they have this year. Yes, Harden is an amazing talent, but that's not going to lift a team that isn't so good into the playoffs. Lin's production/smarts is a huge reason the Rocket's are going to make it this year (if they do which I predict they will).

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    1. "the Rocket's are going to make it this year"

      Famous last words :)

      I sure hope so, but won't breathe easy until I see the little x next to Houston in the standings.

      Delete
  8. Wow .. As a Lin fan, I saw this 100% differently. His playing time yesterday was just due to circumstances. His 1st half minutes were limited due to two quick early fouls. He was taken out at the end of 2nd quarter so he doesn't pick up his third. 2nd half obviously became a blow out do they didn't need him back.

    If u look at from the stand point of why he doesn't play more during the course he entire season, that I can agree with. But I've come to terms with the fact that his PT won't change this season because thays just how McHale wants to do it. As long as Jeremy plays like he did the games prior to last game. I'm good.

    But yesterday's game, Lin was just a victim of circumstances. I really don't think McHale was favoring Beverly over Lin.

    The caveat is McHale of course. I still don't know if he turned the corner. Lets see how McHale uses Lin the next four games to see where he is at with McHale. These 4 games are gonna be pretty tough..

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    1. Even McHale wasn't favoring Beverley over Lin. He's certainly favoring Harden and Parsons over Lin. Anyone with eyes can see this. It's not just one or two games either. It's the whole season.

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  9. McHale will surely use this as an excuse to play AB and Beverley more. "Oh he's young, he will be alright, I don't expect much from him".

    Don't be fooled. McHale hasn't turned a new leaf yet.

    I mean, Beverley is CLEARLY the best choice against TONY PARKER!

    I can see this happening: McHale will go small and force everyone to overhelp in the paint. He will make DMo chuck up 3s all day and not play at the post, and popovich will just punish them from the perimeter with TP penetrating and drawing defenders for easy points for Timmy, who will probably score 30+.

    It will be their first encounter all over again.

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    1. Jeremy scored like 38 points against the Spurs when the Beard was out. Let's hope he catches fire early tomorrow night like last time! Too bad TP is back. I was hoping he was out at least for tomorrow. Maybe he is not 100 percent? :)

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  10. Also, who is Parson's back up? WHO is the Rocket's backup small forward? Is it Delfino? Seriously, Delfino is more of a shooting guard to me. Maybe part of the reason Parson's logs so many minutes is because there's no legit SF on this team.

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    1. Don't kid yourself, Delfino, Anderson, Garcia are all backup wings, can play both SG and SF positions. The only reason you don't think they are legit while you think Beverley is legit is because Parsons and Harden log most of the minutes, making them (except Delfino) hardly get any playing time while Beverley plays a lot. Read about Anderson and Garcia, they are much more legit and have a much better resume than Beverley.

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    2. Parson logs many minutes because he can impact the game like Harden can, of course not the same way Harden can. Parsons can defend all positions except the center position. He can attack the rim, shoot, and a playmaker. He's flexible enough to fill the void and that's his niche on the team. He's not as polished a ball handler as Lin, but once he gets pass his initial defender he's athletic enough that he can finish at the rim as good as any small forward in the league or set up his teammates. This is nothing new what I'm saying but that's Parsons' game.

      Delfino backs up Parsons regularly unless they're playing small. Other than that Anderson and Garcia aren't playing near Parsons level so you play them sparingly.

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    3. Actually, I'm not very concerned with Parson's. I think Lin is getting enough minutes. He's averaging 32.3 minutes a game. If they want to play Parson's 48 minutes a game I'm still not going to want them to play Lin any more than 36 minutes a game but I'm totally cool with 32. I understand people wanting to play Lin more minutes than he plays, but as a Lin fan that only speaks for myself, I'm definitely cool with his numbers.

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    4. "Also, who is Parson's back up?"

      This has been the case the entire season, and I agree the reason CP gets played so many minutes. It's not so much that he's even necessarily the best SF, but who do we have that is a better glue guy?

      Slightly OT, but Bamboo I enjoy the counterpoint you provide in your posts and appreciate that you keep on posting your POV despite replies that at times might be construed as, say, negative.

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    5. No way can Parsons impact the game like Harden or Lin can. He can shoot (usually), but he is not great on defense or playmaking. He is good, but not a spark or catalyst. It makes no sense for him to be playing all those minutes except that he is McHale's pet, and Bamboo Forest is right, he has no back up. Actually J Lin and Asik seem to have the only real positions on this this team. Everybody else does everything. Everybody is a point guard, bigs like D MO are spot up shooters and suck on defense. Delfino is moved from position to position unsuccessfully. Parsons has talent but he doesn't have the eye of the tiger. He can play 40 min and not get injured because he has a nice easy game. By the way, Lin's average is now less than a full point below Parsons. When will Lin get the same respect Parson's gets? Don't know if that will happen on the Rox.

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  11. I also want to add that I think Lin must be feeling pretty damn confident right now. After 4 games in a row scoring 20+ points, I think he's established who the better offensive player is. I believe this alone will increase his confidence going forward.

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  13. He's going to need more picks to get free... Not pick and roll but picks to get free.

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  14. As long as the present coaching staff remains, nothing much will be improved in terms of how they treat Lin. When Lin is the main reason for a comeback or making clutch plays down the stretch, inevitable they are gonna give him some kudos like the warriors and Utah games. But does that make him a true 'STAR' on this team, or a second option, or just even more consistent plays run for him. I very much doubt that, and I am used to see him under utilized. Man, I can just see how this forum is gonna blow up if they marginaize or abuse his minutes in the playoffs. But I will alway cheer and root for our boy!

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  15. Probably one of the major reasons Parsons plays so much is because Harden plays a lot. Who else on the Rocket's roster can guard the opponent's top offensive wing player? Jeremy or Beverley? They're too small to do it for extended minutes. Harden? His defence is severely lacking. Delfino can, but he's needed to give Harden and Parsons a breather and Parsons is still the superior defender. Maybe James Anderson?

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  16. Interesting listening to George Karl's coaching philosophy.

    George Karl on Nuggets Offensive System

    George Karl: Offense, Practice and Team Philosophy

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  17. @geronimo,

    I'm responding to your post in the previous thread. It was somewhat hard to understand what stands you were making. Let me reiterate my first point, and back it up: Given's Houston's point differential, they should have won many more games. Their pythagorean wins is 44:

    http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/EWL

    There is no evidence that a teams "youth" should make them underperform their pythagorean wins. Last year, when Jeremy Lin got his first starts, he performed extremely well in the clutch and pulled out many games. In the NFL, Andrew Luck caused the Colts to perform above the team's pythagorean wins, despite being a rookie.

    On the other hand, we have very strong evidence that the coaching is poor. To give but one example, Jeremy Lin, the second best player on the team, has played significantly fewer minutes than Parsons. It has been noted repeatedly through the season by independent observers that Lin's substitution pattern is odd. For example, when Lin was pulled for the entire OT period against Portland earlier this season, the head of a team of professional sports bettors tweeted that this was a strange decision. That game was probably lost due to that coaching decision, not "youth".

    Houston is underperforming wins by 6! This is a coaching issue. If Houston were performing only AT PAR, they would have 44 wins and my preseason prediction of 50 wins would be perfectly on target. Frankly, if Houston finishes with pythagorean wins of 50, I will consider my prediction to be vindicated.

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    1. BTW, Daryl Morey has spoken repeatedly and publicly about how many wins a given point differential is worth. This is how he thinks. If you don't think he's privately seething that the team is underperforming by so much, you don't understand how first rate analytical minds think. There is zero chance he doesn't see this as a coaching issue.

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    2. That guy geronimo is simply a troll. He kept posting rubbish and then deleted his own posts as well.

      Delete
    3. If Morey was concerned of having a top notch coach, he wouldn't have gotten Mchale as the head coach wouldn't you think. If you claim that Hou's EWL is 44 is a coaching issue that's your opinion. If you don't think youth and inexperience contributes to win/loss again that's your opinion. There are plenty of observers that see it the way I see it. OKC is also under-performing by 6. Is that a coaching issue? Clippers are underperforming by 5. Is that coaching also? There's no doubt the Rockets made awkward decisions in sub patterns but completely disregarding youth is incomprehensible.

      As for Lin being clutch that's not even a valid argument in the Portland game because Lillard was killing the Rockets and Lin had no answer on the defensive end.

      Also, the EWL calculation is based purely on numbers so of course youth, effort, and inexperience aren't part of the calculation. If there's a formula that can calculate intangibles, than you will probably have a different EWL.

      Here's a question for you. Do you think McHale is going to be let go at the end of the season?

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    4. Cara - it wasn't rubbish but the post might hurt the feelings of a LOF, such as yourself, so I decided to delete it instead.

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    5. BTW, Daryl Morey has spoken repeatedly and publicly about how many wins a given point differential is worth.

      ****

      Also don't forget this season is suppose to be a development season. You think Morey is going to expect a lot from McHale when he threw a bunch of new guys at him at the start of the season and then pull the rug from under him again trading Patterson, Morris, and Douglas 3/4 of the way and expect him to sustain a 44 win EWL. Just think about it.

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    6. Why can't it both the "coaching" and "youth" inconsistency that contributed to the lack of # wins based on point differential?

      On one hand, the coaches are also considered young coaches and not known for their X and O strategy to run plays at the crunch time.

      On the other hand, we've seen how the players came out flat without intensity and missed their defensive assignments over and over again.

      I'm more concerned with how the point differential changed over the season against playoff caliber teams in the West because it is indicative of how well their offense and defense fare against them.

      Check out the point differential against OKC and SA who might be their playoff opponent in the first round

      Nov & Dec
      11/28 @OKC -22
      12/7 @SAS -22
      12/10 SAS -8
      12/28 @SAS -6
      12/29 OKC -30

      Feb
      2/20 OKC +3

      The Rockets' defense definitely got better over the season and they managed to beat OKC in Feb was one good evidence of that.

      Both coaches and young players can still be maddeningly inconsistent as can be seen in not fully utilizing Lin/overutilizing Harden/treating Lin and Bev as spark plugs/not curbing Parsons' ball-handling TOs or the whole team came out flat to be beaten by GSW by 30.

      I'm just hoping for the best for both coaches and the players. Coaches need to run more plays for Lin even when he makes mistakes to build more confidence as they allow Harden and Parsons to make those mistakes without being yanked too early.

      Let's hope their 3PT shooting stay hot and their defense is good enough to surprise their 1st playoff opponent.

      Delete
    7. @Michael Terry

      "There is zero chance he doesn't see this as a coaching issue."

      I'm not so sure about that (zero chance). Despite the fact that DM was the first to apply the PW theory to basketball, I'm sure he's aware that it's still just a model, and subject to the usual caveats.

      To this particular point, do you think the inconsistency of the Rox production, coupled with several ridiculously high scoring margins (does any team have as many 20+ wins as we do?) might actually overestimate our wins?

      BTW, always enjoy your posts.

      @geronimo

      "Do you think McHale is going to be let go at the end of the season?"

      I know you were addressing someone else, but the only reason I can see McHale leaving is a) It's time for Chris Finch to take over b) Personal reasons.

      a) will be determined by Morey. God forbid b).

      Also, I'd like to extend to you the same sentiment I posted upthread. Thanks for sticking to your guns and posting how you feel despite some of the replies you get.

      Delete
    8. @Psalm234

      "Let's hope their 3PT shooting stay hot and their defense is good enough to surprise their 1st playoff opponent."

      From your lips to God's ears.

      Delete
    9. If i got a tony parker style player and a manu Ginobili style player and i use tony parkeras shooter and Ginobili as play do you think i'm a good coach, geronimo?

      I think harden and Lin could be one of the best backcourt duo in the last decade together with wall and Beal who i like a lot, but if you don't use them in the right way you're going nowhere....

      Delete
    10. It will be silly to feel hurt by somebody who's nobody to you on Internet. You can keep firing your bullets. Say it if you dare to say it. Stand for ur own words.

      Delete
    11. Why should geronimo have to defend himself from being a troll?

      He has not instigated any arguments, though people attack him even when he's trying to post straight basketball analysis.

      Just because people post something that is perceived as anti Lin or pro McHale doesn't mean that person is a troll or a Lin hater. Now if that person posts that people here are "stupid",
      then that person gets retaliated against.

      I also don't see clutchfans as some sort of Lin hater place. Just because geronimo is from there doesn't mean that he agrees with all the people there who don't think Lin is good enough to play in the NBA.

      Delete
    12. I saw all the Rockets game this year and it's very obvious to me that the Rockets poor coaching (or bias against Lin in many previous games) cost them at least several games: I'm thinking of only the blown games that should obviously have been wins, that a vast majority of people on the net attributed to coaching error/Lin bias. And many posters from here, as well as elsewhere, reflected Michael Terry's observation.

      And then, when I looked at the ESPN's teams standing (which shows every team's average point differential). For a very LONG TIME (until just recently), 2 teams from the Western Conference with a net minus point differential (made obvious by red numbers) were ahead of them in the standing, which was out of place and indicated a poor coaching. The Eastern Conference standing was never out of whack like that - ever: i.e, all the red-numbered teams in the EC were always below the green-colored teams in the standing.

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    14. Mchale was not a NBA coach and still a long way to learn and become a real head coach .

      Delete
    15. @geronimo,

      You like to appear to be the voice of restraint and reason, but in this case the voice of restraint and reason are those siding with Lin.

      Contrary to your claims, Lin was most certainly NOT being abused by Lillard in that game. Do you have NBA League Pass? Please do rewatch the game and try to claim that Lin did not play stellar defense on Lillard.

      I assume you were taken in by "Clutch", who tweeted that Lillard had scored 12 points on Lin in the last 5 minutes. Hilariously, someone actually broke down the last five minutes and showed that Lin was only defending him 4 of his points (including the last shot). When this was posted on ClutchFans, "Clutch" deleted the thread and banned the poster!

      Even on the last shot in that game, Lin's defense was perfect, it was just better offense. To bench Lin for it is precisely the terrible coaching we are discussing here. It was disgusting.

      So, it's clear that you don't even understand the facts. Like I said, rewatch that game and please do break down who each of Lillard's baskets were scored on.

      And while we're at it, let's discuss precisely why Houston's coaches are so idiotic regardling Lin's defense, which is elite, but which they do not acknowledge is elite. Lin plays aggressive help defense. This is really awesome and I've been applauding it since last year. Unfortunately, many people, even people here, erroneously think that Lin should "stick to his man" because they think that when he gets burned on help defense, this proves he's being too aggressive. Lin got a reputation on ClutchFans for bad defense because Lillard scored 2 three pointers and a layup to end the first Portland game. Unfortunately, them's the breaks. That doesn't mean his defense was bad, and the mismatch between what Daryl Morey knows is good defense, and what Morons like McHale and his henchman think is good defense is the problem. Morey has been quoted as saying that sometimes the coaching staff gets antsy when Lin roams over the court. What was clearly absent from Morey's comment, which was in regards to Lin's good defense, was any indication Morey himself had any problem with it. He was careful to say "the coaching staff." And that's for good reason. Two fantastic articles came out this last week demonstrating conclusively that players don't play nearly enough aggressive help defense because they are afraid of being criticized by know-nothings:

      http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9068903/the-toronto-raptors-sportvu-cameras-nba-analytical-revolution

      http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/55110/the-sportvu-follow-up-answering-the-most-common-questions-and-more-ghost-players

      Incidentally, after reading these articles, you'll understand why, starting with last year, Lin's effect on team winning is higher than even the box score can account. Many of us have said that Lin warps defenses, which reveals weaknesses that get exploited with nth level passes, so called hockey assists. These articles show that this effect is demonstrated strongly in certain players. They only mention one in particular, but proving that this effect is measurable affirms what many of us non-haters see, that teams simply function much better when he is on the court.

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    16. @Nom,

      No, people always try to do that. You can't cherry pick out scoring margins. You always see, with every team or player, people saying, "well, if you take out his 80 yard run" or "take away those two games against Golden State". You can't do that. Those games count just as much as any others. This team is a 44 win quality team. I thought so before the season started and I still think so. I'm 100% confident if Lin were given more freedom, they would have converted more of these games to wins.

      Delete
    17. Every margin of victory for every team contains numerous outliers. Guard against the urge to discount them. It's not statistically or rationally justified.

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    18. Why can't it be youth and bad coaching?

      Well, I can point to the bad coaching. Point to the "inconsistency". What constitutes an "inconsistent" play? Players ability is the sum of their good and bad plays. You can't just wipe away their bad plays as "inconsistencies" like some day they won't have bad plays. The best players in the NBA miss half their shots. If they weren't inconsistent, they would be perfect, and the best players to ever play the game.

      What you're actually saying is that some day they'll be better and won't have as many bad plays. Well, yes. Yep, but this season, they're as good as 44 wins, and if it weren't for the meddling coaching and tanking ends of games with the substitution pattern of their second best player and difference maker, these wins wouldn't simply be pythagorean.

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    19. Even as a development season, it fails with regard to Lin. He would develop faster with more minutes. There's no theory of human performance improvement which suggests less practice leads to more gains. In fact, the most popular, well-regarded theories say precisely the opposite. Not only has underplaying Lin cost games this season, it's also cost development.

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    20. Incidentally, that example of abuse by "Clutch", and the corruption it engenders throughout the site, is why, ironically, this also biased forum is more reasonable on Houston than ClutchFans is. Here's a guy who was freaking WATCHING the game, so it should have been fresh in his mind, and he tried to downplay the justified outrage of Lin's benching by misrepresenting what happened. And, understand, I know he didn't lie. Instead, he dislikes what Lin represents (the "bandwagon" Asian fans) so much that he literally can't see the truth. His mind rebels against it. He has to believe that the "bandwagaoners" are always overreacting.

      Delete
    21. @Michael Terry

      Thanks for your responses. I wish I had used the term volatility instead of inconsistency. I'm not advocating cherry picking anything; rather, I'm suggesting that there might not be enough games in a season to validate PW for this team. Depending on how much credit one gives our former power forwards in terms of contribution to the point differentials, I'm not even sure it's valid at all (I know personnel changes like this happen to everyone, I'm just talking this out trying to figure it out).

      FWIW, BR has the Rox PW at 43 (they use a different exponent than ESPN; supposedly lower error). To your point, irrelevant as the Rox have still underperformed. For me, I guess I just don't put much predictive faith in the metric.

      Speaking of metrics, I discovered the RAPM stat some months ago because of you. I can't seem to find any current numbers anywhere. All references lead to a website that apparently only calculates it years at a time? In other words, we won't really know what's been going on until the season is over? Is this correct, or is there another place?

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    22. @michael terry

      When Karl says that Lin is the key to Rox's offense, we can all see it on this site. The hockey assist analogy is factual stats that help to affirm what we all believe to be true.

      My feeling is that Lin uses propriocetion skills to use all of his assets on court. This is the reason why he doesn't do as well in individual or 3 on 3 skills. It's a bit like dribbling with one hand instead of 2. Lin uses all his teammates as extensions of his body in his attack; and by extension, he uses those very same propriocetors to feel for his help defense. These skills are undefinable and can be easily dismissed by lesser minds. Karl's ability to coach a team of " non stars " and his whole team philosopher is very much more organic like the way Lin works his teammates.

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    23. @Bob C F Chan,

      Wow! You articulated it so well. That's exactly the way I've observed about Lin's play, but you've described it so well in a way that I couldn't (and thanks for the new vocabulary (;~D)). I remember reading Lin's comment where he said "I've never played 3 on 3 in any competitive team basketball" (paraphrase). Hahahaha, that was a great comment by Lin! (;~) (;~O)

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    24. Although you have a typo there (there s/b added p before tion.) I had to look it up for it's exact meaning. I like the word. (;~)

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    25. Thanks ztrta

      My bad!

      Proprioception, proprioception

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  18. Also, at some point you have to ask: Who here would prefer that Lin was on a really, really bad team where there was no way they were going to make it to the playoffs no matter how good Lin played? A team where Lin would clock in 35 to 40 minutes a game. A team to where his stats would be as high as they can be based on his current skill level?

    Not me. Lin's on a playoff contending team, not some absolutely horrid team that has no talent.

    To me, this speaks much better of Jeremy than the other scenario where his stats would be higher but he'd be on a team that has no future.

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    1. Lin IS on what should be a bad team.

      The Rockets are the youngest and cheapest team in the NBA. They ought to be the worst team barely scraping to get 20 wins, which is about what they look like when Beverley is in the game with the starters.

      Instead, Lin has propelled the Rockets to a playoff berth in a season that was supposedly about "rebuilding".

      While the papers were crowing last summer about how bad Lin was going to be with the Rockets this year, we on this site knew that Lin could turn around this depleted Rockets roster. We were right and the papers were wrong.

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    2. I agree that Lin has played a big role in the amount of wins the Rocket's have gotten this year.

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    3. What about Harden? Without him can the Rox win the same no of games thus far?

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    4. No... but I agree with KHuang... there isn't that much talent on the Rocket's overall. Lin deserves a lot of credit for the Rocket's performing as well as they have this year.

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    5. Well Maybe this rockets team wasn't that bad after all. Credit to Lin cause he turned Asik and Parsons in star players. Even Patterson looked good with our boy.

      This team with the right coach and a good pf could really be a threat in the next years.... I think D'antoni would fit perfectly with this run and gun team ... Or adelman who turned Rubio in a star and he could do unbelievable things with jeremy.

      Anyway, God knows.. Good thing is Khuang was right, jeremy has improved a lot under Mchale and his strange coaching.... But now it's time to turn the page....

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    6. I'd bet money that if Lin was traded straight up for any PG in the entire NBA, the Rockets' record would the the reverse of what it is right now or worse.

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    7. I am happy where Jeremy Lin are right now. He is lucky to have James Harden to play along with him. Every great player who can win many NBA championships repeatedly need to have another great player to play along with him such as Magic Johnson got 5 champ with Abdul-Jabba, MJ got five with Scott Pippen, Kobe got five with shag and Paul. Lebron got one with Dwyane wade ( many more to come if he smart enough to stay with heat). So... let see when Jeremy Lin can win a champ with Harden. Then he can became the first Asian Player who are a nark from Harvard to win a NBA Champ. That would sooooo cool!!!!

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    8. The other thing that seems to me to be an absolute requirement for winning championships is going at least 2 players deep at the power forward and center positions each with quality rebounding and defense.

      For example, the Heat last season had Chris Bosh (a very fine team defensive player with guard quickness and center length), Joel Anthony, Lebron James, Udonis Haslem, and Shane Battier all manning the center and power forward positions. That's serious depth up front, especially since those positions are prone to injury.

      In my opinion, having depth at the power positions is equally as important as having 2 marquee stars and a 3rd "sorta star" to winning championships.

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    9. KHuang wrote:

      I'd bet money that if Lin was traded straight up for any PG in the entire NBA, the Rockets' record would the the reverse of what it is right now or worse.
      - - - - - - - - -
      I've thought the same thing all along, and I was hoping Lin was traded to the Jazz or Pacer by the trade deadline, LOL (I know you disagree, but that's not the point)..... But I may disagree with the reasons why I agree with you. My reasoning is that, although currently, there are several PGs who are superior to Lin (not a knock on Lin, as he's still gaining experience), the elite PGs they have now are ALL SELFISH ball-hogs who care about their own personal stats the most. Plus, those elite PGs will be EVEN MORE REDUNDANT to Harden's skill set. And unlike the good-character Lin, McHale would face a real quagmire of the highest proportion if he were to bench CPaul - not to mention Paul would get him fired.

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    10. Harden is a pure scorer and Lin is a leader .Without harden, Rocket will score a little lower with make up with more balance attack , but they will be a much better defense team . Without Lin , Rockets with 5 bodies in uniform without a soul .

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    11. Do not worry ,Lin will carry any team to the playoff .

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    12. ztrta, Lin has amply demonstrated that he can be a shoot first point guard if he feels like it.

      That San Antonio 38 point game? That's Lin in hero mode.

      If Houston had Chris Paul, he'd trade himself off the Rockets for Jeremy Lin!

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    13. zrta, that would NEVER happen. Harden would 100% DEFER to CP3. Mchale would DEFER to CP3 100%. The Harden Lin issue wouldn't exist and CP3 would simply be the man with the ball when it mattered in crunch time. CP3 is smart too and he would let Harden monopolize the ball enough until the last 4-6 minutes of the 4Q so everyone would be seemingly happy.

      So in essence, if CP3 were in Lin's place, CP3 would be the top dog and have the ball like Harden does and Harden would slide into what is now Parson's role as player #2 (Lin is somewhere between 3-5 the way he is treated on this team). However, both Harden and CP3 would log high and heavy minutes if CP3 were in Houston.

      If CP3 were a Rox, it's Parson's stats that would suffer the most whether intentionally on CP3's part or as a by product of CP3 and Harden dominating the ball at all costs.....

      So CP3 is NOT an issue.

      What you guys are wondering about is how Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Derek Rose, perhaps Tony Parker, and Lillard would do next to Harden. Those guys are still up and coming and one is coming back from knee surgery, except for Parker, but Parker is not that ideal next to Harden as a floor spacer since he aint no pure shooter...

      I think CP3 would be a 100% upgrade for the Rockets because everyone would defer to him. Other than a CP3, and maybe a Dwill (a strong maybe), Lin is probably as ideal as it gets for this team. As many mentioned, it would be tough for these other "PGs" to be less selfish/selfless than Lin.

      Khuang is right though, the Rox big men are so weak CP3 would never play in Houston although I still believe a CP3 would be the defacto man in Houston but I think CP3 would cry if he had to rely on Asik and Dmo, and lately even Delfino as his bigs....

      CP3 handpicks his teammates in LA, and there aren't too many non-black, non American players on the teams he plays for. CP3 is looking for the best to play with and they just always happen to be black American players. CP3 wanted to cry when he was stuck with Aaron Grey dow low...just imagine Asik...it would be laughable.

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    14. I absolutely agree with the above's assessment on CP3; I absolutely shudder at the thought of DWill being a Rocket.

      Lin *is* as ideal as it gets for this team. The question, as it would pertain to this board of course, is how ideal this team is for Lin.

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  19. At this point of his career, I think being second or third option on a playoff team is better than first option on a mediocre team. There will be less pressure and more room for development and growth.

    JLin is a winner. He won't be satisfied to have good stats & lose the game (like the Spurs game earlier this season). And since it's a superstar league, if you want to win a championship, you will have to learn to play with other superstars. Being in Houston is a good opportunity to improve in the areas of the game that are not his strong points (3-point shooting, off the ball movement, etc).

    I expect JLin will continue to develop his game (actually he had already improved a lot this year compared to last year -- watching last year's Linsanity games, he was a bit raw and uncontrolled at times vs this year). Who knows what's his ceiling? But I know one thing, he will get better and better. As a fan, I have to remind myself that this is not some scripted movie. JLin's story is ongoing. I'm looking forward to see him play basketball for years to come. Hopefully, there will a championship at some point in his career, but if not, I will be content to see him develop his game to his full potential and play some good competitive playoff games.

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    1. Lin's ceiling is 20 ppg 10 apg while also staying at the top of the NBA for steals and assists - all for a playoff team.

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    2. That's lofty company.

      In the history of the NBA, only 7 players have ever averaged 20 points and 10 assists per game over the course of a season: Chris Paul, Oscar Robertson, Tiny Archibald, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Kevin Johnson, and Tim Hardaway.

      http://www.sportscity.com/nba/records/20-points-and-10-assists-club/

      In order for Lin to do this, he will have to be on a team where he can be ball-dominant and have a high usage rate (i.e., not on a Houston/Harden/McHale team).

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    3. He needs a Tyson Chandler clone or someone ultra athletic. Otherwise, its hard to imagine he can average double digit assists.

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    4. He needs a HONEST Rockets scorekeeper too, one that doesn't constantly cheat him.

      Lin can become as good a point guard as has ever played.

      It all depends on who's on his team and how he's used. Right now, I'll bet Lin would get that 20 and 10 if the team chose to use him that way.

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    5. Also, I don't measure guys by raw stats.

      If Lin doesn't get major stats, I usually like him just the same because he's playing team ball all the time.

      It's just like Tim Duncan, my favorite player. Everybody for years has been saying that he's no good anymore, that he's washed up, that he's no longer an All Star. But every time he steps on the court, he KILLS people. Duncan is the single scariest opponent in the entire NBA for this Rockets team, as far as I'm concerned.

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    6. If Lin had continued with New York and they'd go rid of Anthony, Lin would have averaged 20-10 this season and they would have won more games. Lin already demonstrated that last year before Anthony came back. The only thing that keeps that from happening is 1) being empowered, and 2) the right kinds of role players.

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    7. Problem is they will never get rid of Anthony, too much of a risk and too much money involved. The Knicks were never a smart organization, in large part because the owner sticks his face in too much of the player decisions. If they let the GM do his job, maybe they would have a decent team given the budget that they have.

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  20. I give his ceiling: 17pts/8asts/1.5steals

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  21. I am happy where Jeremy Lin are right now. SAS is right for one thing he said before, Lin is so lucky to have James Harden to play along with him. Every great player who can win many NBA championships repeatedly need to have another great player to play along with him such as Magic Johnson got 5 champ with Abdul-Jabba, MJ got five with Scott Pippen, Kobe got five with shag and Paul. Lebron got one with Dwyane wade ( many more to come if he smart enough to stay with heat). So... let see when Jeremy Lin can win a champ with Harden. Then he can became the first Asian Player who are a nark from Harvard to win a NBA Champ. That would sooooo cool!!!!

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    Replies
    1. To continue the post above, I emphasize "championship caliber" rebounding and defense at the power positions.


      MJ's Bulls were criticized for not having a dominating center. They may not have had a 20 point scoring post up center, but they had some of the best rebounders and defenders in the history of the game. Bill Cartwright was one of the greatest defensive centers ever, Luc Longley was like Omer Asik with a jump shot, Horace Grant was an All Star, Toni Kukoc was Europe's 2nd best player for many years, and Dennis Rodman is Dennis Rodman.

      Lin's Rockets need to drastically tighten up their defense if they are to contend. Lin and Asik are bringing it defensively, but the other Rockets are still taking baby steps.

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    2. Agree. It's five men team game. We need all kind of great suppot role to get to the top. I belive Lin is a natural leader to make every one around him better.

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    3. Absolutely, Khuang! They need some real toughness inside to balance out the finesse outside. That's why I keep bringing up Tyson as the key to lin's success last year.

      After seeing the utube of Karl and Nuggets offense, it just reaffirms my belief that this Rox team will never go deep so long as they don't let Lin attack the rim. Even Woodson laments how he needs a guard now that can do exactly what Lin did for him last year. I really had high hopes for Trob to add some athleticism and toughness inside.

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    4. It not just Tyson, Landry and Steve provided prefect offensive help to Lin's game as well. Knicks' D last year was much better then Rox's D this year too (When Melo and Amare were not on the court of course).

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  22. U guys are over-reacting after a blowout game when this wasn't even an issue after the previous three games. Lets see McHale utilizes Lin the next four games. If u expect Lin to play as much as harden or parsons, u r gonna be disappointed. That is not going to happen.

    But if u expect Lin to play a crucial role.. And then he finds himself on the bench after few missed shots.. Then yes, this McHale is a bigoted moron and he needs to go or Lin needs to leave.

    But let's not over react about hhis minutes after really a meaningless game.

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    Replies
    1. I prefer Lin performing well in more meaningful game time too.

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    2. I just wish Lin will out last McHale, hahaha

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    3. McHale is a very old school guy. He probably thinks Lin is overhyped and thinks he hasn't earned his place in the league and the fame and popularity yet. So what he did as a former HOFer is to kind of put Lin in his place.

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    4. As long as the Rockets are winning, McHale being hard on Lin will help Lin in the long run. If they were losing, McHale will be gone because Lin isn't going anywhere.

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  23. Replies
    1. BTW, this is copied from tmblr posted by fauxscandinavian.

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  24. I think the rockets are weaker after the trade of TD, morris and Patterson. Garcia and the robinson? I see robinson is totally a scrub.

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    Replies
    1. Robinson is an All-Star during garbage time

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    2. short term sacrifice for long term gain in my opinion. TRob has more raw talent and a bigger ceiling if you asked me. Just need some time and work ethics.

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  25. Lets go Lin. This team is primed for a deep run in the playoffs if they go through Lin. He will not let them lose. His will to win is just like Jordan and Kobe.

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    1. This will NOT happen this year and probably not next or even the year after UNLESS Harden or Parsons are injured or traded for BIGS.

      Not being a Debbie Downer, just stating the obvious...I don't think our OP here is really "confused" about Lin's role and PT. He is just disappointed like the rest of us at Lin's handcuffing.

      I have accepted Lin's 4th wheel role at this point and no longer feel frustration for him especially when he plays well. He should just make a comedy sketch out of producing insane numbers in his 20-25 minutes per game.

      I truly truly believe Lin will find his butt glued on the bench for no good reason at all in the playoffs in a game/games where we will all wonder WTF. Just accept it now so it doesn't bother you all so much when it happens in a few months.

      Lin is the #3-5 most important player on the team on any given night because of his given role on the team. He is not the #1 or #2 guy - Morey and Mchale don't want that. It's obvious to probably all of us here whether or not we care to admit it. That's how the Rox use Lin, as #3-5 most important player on the team.

      A few games ago he was subbed in and out the same as DMO which is laughable. Some nights, when he is bench in close games, he is like the #7 most important guy after Delfino and his PG replacement.

      I know you guys want to stay positive and all on here, but we can cheer Lin on without making comments that the Rox will win if they go through Lin. It will NOT HAPPEN. I am a big Lin supporter but I am just stating reality.

      We just need to hope Lin can shine/do damage in his 20-25 minutes/limited off the ball role in whatever particularly testy playoff game that comes the Rox way.

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    2. Reality bites. But, you are absolutely right!

      I just hope that this kind of Lin-treatment will end SOON with the exit of the coach or him being sent to a team that will give the respect due him. sigh... :<

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    3. In the meantime , let's just cheer him on! Give him all the support that we can give in our own little ways.

      I still believe , the kid is destined for great things. And the things that he is inevitably going through right now are the cornerstones for his success.

      Go LIN!!!

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    4. @swing
      I feel the exact same way! Just hoping for the best and prepare for the worst. Sometimes watching a rockets games is so anticlimactic. I wait for few days impatiently, only to see Lin play little minutes. I begin to hope that Lin plays more minutes against tough team since that seems when he plays the best and more fun to watch

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    5. Glad we have some people on the same page here. If Lin is the real deal, he cannot be held down forever, and I believe he will become the real deal, so I am not worried.

      Again, I am pretty certain Lin is gone after season 3 or traded by season 3 unless the Rox get a heck of a deal shipping out Harden for a top 10 elite big.

      The Rox will have used him to make money, and he will have gained some good experience starting on their dime. So it is for the most part mutually beneficial.

      Right now I honestly think the Rox are hopeful and dumb enough to think Lin will stick around being the 4th wheel. The Rox will be in for a Steve Nash-to- Phoenix scenario...I can already see it coming....my only fear is there is no Phoenix-like team to make Lin that offer when the time comes.

      The only way Lin can let fans like us down is to choose the wrong team next time around in FA. He had NO OPTIONS over the summer and was somewhat lucky to land this current contract so you cannot fault him at all being stuck on the Rox in this sometimes crappy limited role.

      Over the summer, I honestly felt Lin wasn't going to be back with NYK or he would be marginalized if he was.

      Americans and New Yorkers weren't ready for a little Asian American guy (relatively speaking) to be the face of the most media heavy team in the USA. I remember thinking over the summer how odd it would actually be if the Knicks resigned Lin.

      They don't see Lin being able to sell Nikes, or Degree for Men like Carmelo (although I dont think Carmelo is capable of selling anything at all personally). Could you imagine the young New York inner city ballplayers and bball fans being forced to watch a decade of Linsanity? They just aren't ready for it.....3 months of Linsanity? Sure...but 10 years of Jeremy Lin if he's not head and shoulders better than Michael Jordan was? No...not in New York or Boston or Chicago etc etc...

      I personally thought the Knicks would just offer Lin a low-ball and Lin would be stuck accepting that since I didn't think any team like the Rox would offer anything close to the 25 mill max.

      I figured Lin would be back in NY and he would be in a limited starter role like he is now in Houston, or he would be a 6th/7th man off the bench like Pablo Prigioni and he would be more and more marginalized as the year wore on assuming the Knicks were able to win without his services.

      And honestly, having watched the NBA for a while now, and understanding the Asian American experience in the USA, I truly believe I would have been correct on that.

      I think Lin's chance will come, it'll just be after this contract is over assuming there is that 1 team out there for him...

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  26. I'm not going to obsess this game over Mchale. If Lin's getting legit minutes and is given a sufficient opportunity to run the offense... I'm good. He's on the court. Let's celebrate. This is the NBA: Expecting idealistic circumstances may not be appropriate for any player. When it happens, wonderful. But it doesn't always happen.

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  27. I don't think you can compare the win loss record since the team is different and under different circumstances. Besides win/loss is dependent on the team and not individual performances unless you are one of the greats. Lets hope in a few years we can put him in that category.

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  28. You know for any team organization, I'd rather have a bunch of mid level players than big time players that only scores. The Spurs is a great example, even if you argue that Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are great scorers. They do not see stats as important as winning a game and would do anything for a win even if means sacrificing scoring. Maybe that's why veteran players are preferable because they are not looking for the big contract anymore.

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  29. Rockets should try to get Jarred Jefferies. Great defense guy that sacrifices his body and doesn't look to score first.

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    Replies
    1. Get Jeffries, Fields and Novak. What a team that would be!

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  30. Although McHale has not used Lin as much as Parsons or Harden this season, Lin's relative lack of playing time has turned out to be a real advantage for him. He is coming off of knee surgery and his extensive traveling over the summer probably wasn't conducive to healing. If Lin is still used the same way next year, I would certainly be more upset. But for now, Lin averaging 30 minutes a game might just be the best thing for his knee. His relative lack of minutes during the regular season may even help him out during the postseason since he may well be better rested than other starters.

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    1. Just for the sake of accuracy he's actually averaging 32.3 minutes a game. And while that may not make some hard core Lin fans happy, I dont' think it can be construed as outrageous. As I have mentioned before, players aren't always put in an ideal situation. I can think of at least one... but I'm sure you guys who are very well versed on other NBA players and teams could cite many examples where players aren't getting the minutes that you believe they should or are not being used how you believe they should. If you only focus on Jeremy Lin and don't see what happens throughout the entire NBA, you can reach conclusions that don't represent reality. That is my humble opinion, only.

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    2. It wasn't a matter of the minutes played but more with when he's put in and taken out. To me he should not sit for more than 5mins at a time and should close off games. When it's a blowout, take him out after the 3rd so that he can rest for he whole 4th.same with the other starters.

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    3. I brought up minutes because there have been complaints about it. But I believe my point still stands: Other players are also misused in the NBA with substitutions. That said, the only time I agreed with keeping Lin out of the fourth was the game against the Orlando Magic where Beverly was playing ridiculously well. Other than that, I was in favor for playing Lin in the fourth.

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  31. It would be so nice to steal one tonight. I'm surprised the line is SA -1.5, but I never bet against the Rox.

    The last time Lin played the Spurs after scoring 4 pts... he scored 4 pts. On the other hand, he had his highest output (and minutes played) against SA as well.

    Here's to hoping he and Harden both have 20+, a win, and some swagger to carry into the post season.

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