We're gonna be seeing alot of this. Asik's hands aren't as bad as I was led to believe. He's actually catching Jeremy's passes better than Tyson, with his injured hand, did last season.
http://www.nba.com/rockets/video/2012/10/10/0011200019-okc-hou-play1.nba/index.html
http://www.nba.com/rockets/video/2012/10/10/0011200019-okc-hou-play2.nba/index.html
Seen highlights and boxscore i think jeremy played smart cause he's not fit yet and just distributed assist. Asik looks great (3/4 ft he was crap in that) Lamb 8 rebounds and jones great game. If i were martin and Parsons I'd be already worried to lost my role in the starting 5 :D
ReplyDeletecan you tell me how d-mo played? Was it better than patterson? I think he could be good with Asik cause he's tall and can score from everywhere.
Anyway it was just a preseason game :D it's better losing some of them or some youngster can get too ecxited or confident or feeling too good
d-mo played pretty awful, they played him as the backup center where he was totally lost and made tons of mistakes. they really need to keep him as a 4 where he can use his strengths. we have some potentially good 4's in d-mo, white, and jones (who had a great game) and there is patterson too. I think we should trade one or two of those guys for a true backup center if we can find one.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you. D-mo is more 4... We need a decent backup center
DeleteI think D-Mo will need to spend some time in the weight room and the D-league if he wants to get some minutes off the bench. I just don't see him contributing much to the team, except for the occasional 3 pointer. Even Novak was tougher down low.
DeleteNot at all. Who'll play as 5? Are there better players ? Jajuan ? I don'tsee a backup c apart d-mo. And don't see great player in 4. D-mo could be useful, not as starter of course, cause he can open the opponent defence cause he's got long rage shot. Don'tforget he didn't train much cause of the injury so he could not be in good shape
DeleteYes D-Mo can hit the 3 from time to time, but then that just makes him a one dimensional player. He needs to be strong enough to grab rebounds and work down low.
DeleteGreg Smith can play backup center ... for now. He showed some toughness late in the game. Defense and rebounding for put-back shots, that's all you need from a backup C.
Darnit, my man Darko Milicic is now the backup center in Boston.
DeleteActually, I'm THRILLED for Darko. Doc Rivers has embraced him and Darko is producing.
Darko would have been a terrific center for Lin's Rockets. Plus, he would've been an ideal pet project for McHale since he already has low post scoring moves.
If given the choice I'm sure most free agents would rather sign with a championship contender like Boston, Miami, or the Lakers. I doubt Darko would have signed with the Rockets had they made a competing offer. Or they would have to overpay him well above the veteran's minimum.
DeleteWatching Wade against the Clippers now. Played exactly like a guy who just came back from injury, like Lin. Of course no one would doubt Wade's ability, unlike Lin. :-(
ReplyDeleteKnee injury is really no joke. Chris Paul had the same surgery as Lin at NOLA. While he could come back to play in 2 months, it took him more than a year to go back to his dominant self. Everyone needs to get some perspective when judging Lin's performance. It's not nice to hear the criticism of Lin from media and haters though, understandably. :-(
DeleteNo need to worry, Cara.
DeleteLin has already established NBA starter legitimacy. He is well paid. He's playing for a good coach who correctly recognized that Lin had a "solid" game. He doesn't have to be Superman every night YET for the Rockets to win (just wait until NBA defenses figure out all the Rockets young players). He even sleeps on his own couch!
It's clear that the Rockets are actually playing as a TEAM. Lin is the biggest part of that. The Rockets are young, but they're not a DUMB team and that's because of Jeremy Lin.
Individual glory aside, Lin is poised to have a GREAT season. Lin's Rockets are going to win a lot more games than analysts are imagining. The playoffs are definitely a possibility!
Jeremy Lin's instinctive ability to throw a 3/4 court arching pass over the hands of outstretched defenders off his dribble is a signature move all by itself.
ReplyDeleteThough that pass is routinely practiced by basketball teams, not many point guards at any level can make that pass. It requires a certain kind of timing to throw the ball perfectly AHEAD of a player so that he can catch it on the fly and lay it in.
Jeremy Lin is good for at least 2 passes a game of this type. It always surprised me when he does it because most point guards (including elite ones) don't always see the opening or get the timing right. Yet Lin throws it unerringly, often over the hands of outstretched defenders!
This is one of the many reasons why it's so hard to beat Lin's teams even when Lin doesn't have a great individual scoring outburst. If Lin's not beating you himself, he's setting up his teammates to beat you. Contrast Lin's glory sharing play to that of Russell Westbrook's me-first approach, not that I see anything wrong with Russell Westbrook's game!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoF5fuJsV64&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting this link!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteGreat video!
DeleteSeveral things I didn't see before:
- 6 Assists (should have been 8)
Lin distributed 2 each to Asik, Parsons and Patterson.
2 more potential assists to Asik (6:18) and KMart (3:59) did not count because they got fouled. They made free-throws.
There were 2 more potential assists in the 3rd Quarter but Parsons (11:06 TO walked) and Asik (7:54 assist to Parsons) could not convert.
- Waived 3PT-er at the 3rd Quarter (3:17)
Lin made an open 3-Pointer off Parsons but Asik made a Turnover (3-sec violation in the paint) so it's waived off.
I'm encouraged by the chemistry and good spacing between Lin and these 3 players. KMart did not play much so they could have good chemistry, too.
In summary, Lin should have had 8 Assists and potentially 10 assists in only 19 min so it's really a good first pre-season game in terms of setting up his teammates.
He didn't play at full speed, neither at half speed. He's been really smart, he's getting confidence with teammates and some moves make me dream... The steal was a piece of magic.
DeleteAs i thought, and all of you i guess :D, Lin and Asik could be great together. Asik is working a lot and improvements are out there
Thanks for sharing this link.
DeleteHi guys - heres the Rocketcast and they basicly see things the way most of us do (starting somewhere around 13:00)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nba.com/rockets/news/rocketscast-live-morning-after
Basicly they say:
Westbrook was on fire - what matters is that Jeremy did not let Westbrook have his easy shots (or even go to the hoop except one time ore so) - Westbrook scored on Lin but didnt really torch Lin. Jeremy forced Westbrook to do the tough shots he wanted him to make - so solid d on Lins part. They said Lin made good steals, good passes, was lagging explosiveness though (acknowledging Lins not 100%) and therefor mainly distributed the ball to teammates (hesitant to create for himself). Thats very fair I think - thats how most of us see it.
Ive been doing a lot of reading, too - e.g. on clutchfans. There are a handfull of haters - I admit. One particular hater bashed Lin after a turnover with something like "why why why are his TO numbers bla bla". Another guy responded immediatly with something like "dude - he has one TO and your bickering? One?". Yeah - these haters are just waiting for bad things to happen so they can do what they are best at :) Another dude was bashing Lin fans like "they are still in denial" but people didnt really support that, didnt responded to that and didnt care.
Most people are really fair - not exactly on fire for Lin yet but not Anti-Lin as well. They acknowledge hes not 100% - they are happy to see the youngsters play well and thats it. So far - things are pretty much OK I guess - much better than things might have been in NY (Gotham City Media).
So - worst case scenario this year -> Lin makes a slow recovery -> slowly gains his strength back and meanwhile performs OK -> still cashing in. It would be sad for us to see that happen but when I think of all the past and current players who have to deal with injuries and are therefor not 100%...
Best case scenario -> hes gaining mustle, strength, explosiveess and stamina back real quick and hes 100% -> even the knuckleheads will have to accept that JLins a decent PG and we will have a really good time here :)
One of their criticism of Lin is him not going for his shots believing he is still not 100%. Personally, I think Lin wasn't looking for his shots on purpose because he wants to get everyone involved. I think if he gets a lot of points, it would be similar to their criticism of Westbrook shooting so much and not getting others involved. He doesn't need to prove his worth with regards to getting his own points.
DeleteEven last year, he was always trying to get others involved. When Amare first came back, you can see that very clearly when Lin was actively looking to get Amare the ball. And he would only take over again when Amare was on the bench.
I think Lin doesn't want to be the top scorer if his teammates are hitting their shots. And during the melo-less period, he had no choice but to take over since nobody else was able to contribute. His numbers dropped during the Woodson period because they were blowing out the opponents in several of those games. He wasn't needed to save the team.
One other thought. Maybe he is just trying to proof to himself, coaches, and his teammates the criticisms from last year. He concentrated on the defense, handling the ball, maybe his left hand handling, and turnovers. He doesn't really have to proof his scoring capabilities.
DeleteTrue - JLin scored whenever neccesary. He was also taking his job as PG serious and tried to distribute the ball well - most of the time he did a good job. I can even remember JLin talking about a situation where he checked the teammates numbers after a game and apologized for not have passed the ball often enough to Fields - Fields got only a few shots. I think that is one of the reasons why he was so famous amongst his teammates - especially the bench. Everybody got a chance to shine and that is why they all got better.
DeleteActually it comes down to only two situations where I agree with the critics (and I think they are talking about the same situations). In these two situations Lin arrived at the three point line first - waiting for his teammates to get into position. There were only one or two defender in reach. He could have made a drive to the hoo - layed the ball up or simply attempted a three point shot. Instead - he waited.
I dont agree with the critics when they say Lin was nervous but I definitely would say he was hesitant. Anyway - I dont blame Jeremy. I agree with the critics who say JLin waited for his teammates because he was not a 100%.
Good point J Dub, but haters will always find something to hate.
DeleteAnyway - Lin has already proven that he can score, drive, get on the paint, attack the rim. Hes gonna do that as soon as he is 100%. Im sure McHale knows all that.
DeleteIMHO JLins only weakness last year was decission making when under pressure (double team, running into traffic). I believe that you can already see improvements there.
And yeah - he was working with his left hand more than usual.
@damon houston:
Delete"J Dub" ???
Good point about blow out wins. You'll notice that Lin doesn't bother trying to score when it doesn't matter in general. Remember the Rookie/Sophomore game last year? He also doesn't try to score as much the earlier in the game it is, either. Instead, he was one of the highest 4th quarter scorers in the league. He had the second highest 4th quarter PER in the league. Do you know who was ranked #1? Chris Paul, who avowedly saves his best scoring and best overall play for the 4th quarter.
DeleteMcHale admonished Lin for passing up easy looks yesterday, but make no mistake: This wasn't a change in Jeremy's behavior. He's always done this. Getting players involved early makes them play harder defense and puts Lin in a position to take over late if necessary and still have the energy to do so. It also allows him to keep some tricks up his sleeve, so to speak, so opponents haven't seen all of his offensive repertoire.
Willydilly, not many can reasonably dispute that JLin is a decent PG, but most NBA fans who are not JLin fans (and some JLin fan like myself) definitely do not agree that JLin should be included at this time in the elite PG group, i.e. top 7 PG group -- I actually cringe when I hear some people make such statement because JLin himself definitely does not think so at this point. As I said many times, I do see a possibility that JLin will instead turn out to be a "decent" PG throughout his career (Jose Calderon level) as opposed to the elite level, i.e., Nash or Parker level. To be fair, I would like to see JLin play one entire season to gauge what I think his probable ceiling is. I find Clutchfans pretty fair on all Rockets players, including JLin, and they seem pretty knowledgeable. Having said this, I think JLin's score per game will definitely go down this season, just because Rockets do have some players who can score. I am hoping JLin's assist number will go up though.
DeleteJLin played a decent D on Westwood, so the fact that Westwood made almost all of his shots is not JLin's fault, but again, his long jump shots do not look good, and he did make one or two dumb TOs; I rather he take shots instead of trying to force passes; that way, at least, he is practicing shooting. Lastly, it's not as if Rockets are loaded with talen on the PG position, so JLin will definitely start unless he really starts sucking, which I do not see happening because his play appears to be more consistent.
We cringe when you call people out here, eb5attorney.
DeleteThat's OK. Jeremy Lin knows how to amass elite stats. It won't be any different this season.
Whatever you say, KHuang. I am certainly not calling you out on anything. Like I said, I would like to see one year of stats.
DeleteIts alright eb5attorney. Noone here claimed (at least I dont remember) JLin was an elite PG (though I think he is great and could be one). In the past people like SAS have claimed JLin was an below average PG - thats when we were arguing saying JLin is much better than that...
DeleteBut if Jeremy Lin is at the top of as many statistical categories among point guards as he has been since entering the NBA as a Golden State rookie, why SHOULDN'T he be considered an elite PG?
DeleteWhy should guys that produce less than Lin does be considered better than him?
I didnt say we shouldnt consider him an elite PG. Then again - I must admit that I am not sure what the concrete definition of an elite PG is (cause we dont use that word over here). Does he have to lead in the statistics? Does he have to be very experienced? How old must he be? How long must he have played? How consistent must he have performed? How healthy must he be? Is it a matter of money/contract or the minutes that he is averaging? I really dont know.
DeleteAnyway - for me its just a label - one that JLin doesnt really need. More labels, more pressure, more taunts. Besides - I love the fact that many people still consider JLin an underdog. Just let that underdog torch some more elite PGs :) Sooner or later - people will consider him an elite PG, too.
@eb5attorney's post : "JLin played a decent D on Westwood, so the fact that Westwood made almost all of his shots is not JLin's fault,..."
DeleteWho's Westwood?
It's kind of like how NBA guards would try to light up Steve Nash when he played for the Phoenix Suns. Because they knew Nash wasn't a strong defender, they'd put up tons of shots in his face. And they would shoot a high percentage against him.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in doing so, they weren't passing the ball and getting teammates involved. And whenever they missed, the Suns would get the rebound and score at will on the fast break at the other end.
Well said ABC Baller. In fact - Westbrook played at his best (great shooting) and had a good run - he kept grinning but by the end of 1st quarter he only had a one point lead. That makes his game quite pointless. Besides - shooters are streaky. Even a guy like Kobe sometimes misses the first 10 shots. So - you cant really rely on such a game.
DeleteBesides - it was just a preseason game. I would imagine that his teammates who were looking for a chance to shine are pretty pissed :)
Westbrook is too egotistical...He scored, did his taunting, and OKC lost. Damn, that dude is annoyyyyying.
Deletedon't worry about Westbrook. the guy plays to score first and set up teammates second. Lin plays the right way to set up teammates and win the game as a team.
DeleteI wonder if Durant secretly prefers to have Lin as his PG.
Ugh, you think Lin isn't a strong defender? This is totally false. How are you posting on a Jeremy Lin fan site and aren't aware of the extensive evidence that shows that Lin is a very good defender?
DeleteAlso, Nash is not a bad defender. This stereotyping and myth making, but that's another story.
The one thing you said that's true is that guards do go after Nash harder than other players. And, this phenomena is even more pronounced with Lin. Funny thing about basketball, confidence and initiative are so important. Yesterday, first possession Westbrook posted up Lin. Why did he do that? He has the opportunity to post up short guards all season and he never does. Lin's not that short. Why'd he do it? Cause Scotty Brooks buys into the lie that Lin is a bad defender so he reasons that attacking him will be a good strategy and also wear Lin down on offense. Avery Johnson did the same thing last year with Deron Williams.
And, basketball can be a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. If you give a PG a green light to score, they'll often score a lot of points, "proving" the contention that the other guy is poor at defense. In reality, basketball gives huge advantages to the offense.
Look at last night. Lin played GREAT defense on Westbrook but Westbrook took tons of long jumpers. That's what you WANT. Westbrook taking long jumpers is great defense. Last year in the Finals, Lebron James, the best perimeter defender in the league, could not stop Westbrook from getting layups and scoring 43 points.
If someone knows they have the green light from coach to shoot, they're going to be more likely to make those shots. No pressure. However, that only lasts for so long. OKC can't win games with Westbrook shooting jumpers all game, just like they couldn't pull away from Houston's starters yesterday with Westbrook have the shooting quarter of his life.
Haters loved to point out Deron William's game last year, neglecting to emphasize that Williams points came on step back and screened hero three pointers. Let's see Williams do that again next time he faces Lin. Anyone want to take a prop bet at Vegas on whether Williams scores 43 again? Fact is, he was highly motivated and that game did not represent his average ability. Lin, otoh, played his average game and filled up the box score.
Other guards thought they could take advantage of Lin last year too. It was hilarious to watch Philly's guards shoot themselves out of the game as they tried to show up Lin, for example.
Last night one of the broadcasters brought up the fact that Lin had tested out with elite athleticism in combine tests. The color guy refused to believe it. LOL. Idiot. Man on man defense is all about athleticism, and Lin has it both by test and eye test. That's why he picked Westbrook twice last night, to the clear astonishment of the broadcasters. That's why he picked Rose twice and blocked him twice in their match up last year. None of Lin's steals last night came from clever positioning or playing angles.
Shall I mention that everyone's rookie of the year Kyrie Irving had the number one worst opponents points allowed according to Synergy, while Lin was in the top 40%? Shall I mention that Lin was in the top 5 in steals/36 last year for starters? Or top 10 for blocks/36 for guards? Or that the Knicks top 5 defense actually allowed fewer points per 100 possessions when Lin was on the court? Or that he had the number 1 DRtg in the entire d-league the year before?
Dang Michael Terry, you just shredded every argument that Lin can't play defense!
DeleteWell said Terry. But there are just a few people here who said Lin was weak on d. Most people think Lin played textbook defense - forcing Westbrook to make those tough shots - rather than let him go to the basket. Westbrook was simply hot/lucky to have made these shots.
DeleteAn excellent reeducation of Jeremy Lin's defense, Terry! I agree that the reason Jeremy ranks so high on steals and blocks is certainly due to his ATHLETICISM.
DeletePeople underestimate his defense because he often seems to allow too much space to the opposing player during one-on-one defense so they can get by him easily but Jeremy often recovers and uses his speed to steal the ball or get blocks (i.e. block on DRose). It's uncanny how he managed to stick his hands from behind to poke the ball away without fouling the player.
It's almost like Jeremy has a childhood habit to intentionally gives too much space (the opposite of Bruce Bowen's blanket defense) to challenge a player to get by him because he knows he is quick enough to get a steal or a block.
He definitely has to grow out of this habit because it won't work 100% against speedy players like Tony Parker but it's still amazing too watch. I remember a comment yesterday that he seemed to body up more during one-on-one defense so he must be working on it.
Michael, good stuff, as usual. Also I would add to that list that Lin was top 10 in charges drawn/36 for guards.
DeletePsalm234, remember that the NBA hand check rules prevent guards from being able to get in the faces of their opponents past a minimum level.
DeleteIt's better that guys launch contested jumpers against Lin than allowing them to dribble past him to get into the lane. The fouls would accumulate and the PGs would dish off easier if they could get past Lin.
Besides, Bruce Bowen couldn't have stopped ANYBODY had the refs not given him so much superstar officiating. That guy held, punched, shoved, tripped, and kicked his way with total impunity because the refs let him. Plus he had Tim Duncan clogging the lane behind him. Had Bowen been normally officiated, he'd have been an average defender at best due to his slow footspeed and slow reflexes. I'm a Spurs fan and I HATED Bowen because of the preferential officiating!
As far as I'm concerned, Lin plays terrific defense. Until the numbers that Michael Terry displayed here start showing Lin being a negative defender, I like his defensive game.
Lin's ability to stay with guys reminds me of Kevin McHale's former teammate Dennis Johnson who was considered one of the best defensive guards in the 80s. However Lin is even quicker than DJ was in his prime when they called DJ "Helicopter" because of his leaping ability and speed!
Don't know if you guys read this article yet:
DeleteRockets have plenty to smile about after opener, but Lin wants more
“I don’t think I made plays,” Lin said. “I definitely didn’t stop Westbrook defensively. And offensively, I think a little too passive. I’m not sure. I just really wasn’t myself. I’m going to try to be more aggressive, make more plays for myself and for others and just do a better job than that.”
I think JLin's too hard on himself. Even his coach said he had a good stint. He's right, as many of you commented, that he was a bit too passive. Again, this may be because he has to prove other aspects of his game, he wishes to get other teammates going, and doesn't generally feel the need to show that killer instinct offensively unless its clutch time.
JLin should also see that he took only 3 shots. That must be the lowest number of shots since before the win streak with NYK. I think he's a bit down because he didn't score much, but if he's willing to put up more shots, his scoring will definitely go up. This is subject to of course whether the coach wants him to take more shots. If the team is doing its thing, I don't see that number of shots matter too much. JLin is a talented scorer though, so although JLin should make the right basketball plays even if this means not shooting much, the coach should encourage him to take more shots to make good use of his offensive talent. If anything, an offensively aggressive JLin is always a treat for the fans to watch.
Wow Micheal Terry you rock. You should post more Jlin analysis...
DeleteI actually felt that JLin was a bit down even during training camp leading up to last night's match. It kinda shows during his interviews. I think he tends to be hard on himself and feels that his performance wasn't great even during training.
DeleteHe did what the coaches drilled into the team though. Over and over again, in the Houston Rockets interviews, Coach McHale and all the other assistant coaches kept saying that their primary goal was to keep the ball out of the paint. So that's what they did. Even Mchale says JLin did his job in terms of D.
Thanks to feltball who posted the link to the full 1st preseason game , I got to watch the first quarter in its entirety.
DeleteI thought Jeremy played terrific tight man-to-man defense against Westbrook in the 1st Q. Westbrook just got hot and scored a lot of points from well-executed pick-and-roll on 50% of his 16 points. Perhaps Houston can watch the tape and designs ways to bother Westbrook more in the regular season games. Add to that 1 charge, 2 steals that were vintage Lin, I'd say he did his job well on defense.
Jeremy was too modest and too perfectionist to say he did not make any plays. After all, he got 4 assists and got to the basket at will. One time he got double-teamed and swung the ball back outside to Chandler who found KMart wide open and of course he hit the shot. Just beautiful to watch! And great chemistry with Asik to pass the ball well in position to score or got fouled.
I learn a lot from Michael Terry's posts.
Deletetypical JLin - always a little hard on himself...
Delete:) Glad to be of service. In my spare time, I'm a student of cognitive bias and Lin's case is really interesting to me.
DeleteWhen people claim that Lin is a bad defender it is a combination of bias and "signaling"[1]. Folks don't want others to think of them as "buying into the hype" so they "signal" certain things. Claiming that Lin is poor at defense signals that the fan is an objective, "unbiased" observer. Talking about defense is a good signal because it's really hard to disprove.
If you watch the first game of Linsanity, it's a perfect microcosm of the contrast between Lin's actual defensive abilities and the cognitive dissonance. When Lin came in to guard Deron William, the play by play announcer, Mike Breen, chuckled. He said, "Poor Lin in a mismatch here." Williams tried to drive around Lin, but Lin kept him in front and Williams had to settle for a jumper. This repeated several times in the game before Breen said, "Lin's playing surprising good defense." As you can see, before it became a thing for analysts and fans to prove how objective they are by claiming Lin is a poor defender, it was perfectly obvious that Lin is a good defender.
Defense in basketball is subject to a huge proportion of bias because the statistics on it are so poor. The best statistic would be DRtg, EXCEPT that it's so influenced by who you play with. There are ways to factor that out, using regression analysis, but it's not a complete solution.
What most fans do then is just rely on the eye test. Unfortunately, people's eyes really suck. So things like confirmation bias dominate their judgments. "Jeremy Lin isn't black, so he must be slower than black players. If he does something good on defense, it's because he's clever about passing angles." People fetishize man on man defense the same way they fetishize dunks, even though man-on-man defense represents a tiny, tiny fraction of the points a team gives up every game. So, then you have Iman Shumpert considered automatically a better defensive player even though, I suspect, Lin's presence, due to his better team defense, has a bigger impact on the team's points allowed.
Another hilarious problem is that, people know just enough to be dangerous. People know that defensive stats aren't very good in basketball, so they end up discounting them entirely. This crops up if you mention a players steals rate or blocks rate or charges taken rate. The next thing out of someone's mouth is, "you can be a bad defender and still get steals". Well, yeah, kind of. But, steals and blocks and charges taken aren't nothing. Being good at those is definitely correlated with being a good defender, the correlation just isn't necessarily 1 to 1. If you look at the top 10 list for steals/36, none of those guys are bad defenders. Having a good steals rate is suggestive. If you're going to say that a player has a good steals rate but is a bad defender, the burden is definitely on you now to prove it, because a good steals rate should give the player the benefit of the doubt.
So, any particular defensive stat isn't very helpful. But when you look at all the data in its totality, then you start to be able to make firm conclusions. Jeremy Lin's DRtg last year with the Knicks was great. The Knicks turned around defensively when Lin began starting. You can look up the ESPN Stats articles on it and there were some other ESPN blogs discussing it. Now, some of this was explained away by Lin not having to share the court with Amare and Carmelo, but if you look at the numbers, it can't all be explained that way. But, then, Lin had the number 1 DRtg in the entire d-league the year before. Now we've got a good DRtg for two entirely different teams. It's starting to be a pattern. And, also, there's no amount of coincidence that will explain why Lin's DRtg in d-league was number 1. If he were playing next to a dominant shot blocker, he'd be 2 at best. Yes, it's the d-league, but I'm pretty sure most NBA players could play a season in the d-league and not have that big an effect on defense. And, again, it's a pattern.
DeleteOn top of that pattern of how he affects team scoring defense (by far the most important defense factor if we're talking about winning and losing games), Lin is also near the top of the league, or at least his position, in steals, blocks, rebounds, and charges taken.
So, why is Lin such a good defender? For most players, an explanation isn't necessary, but for Lin doubters, it is. They just can't see past the cognitive dissonance that is a non-black player being this athletic. It's funny because this sort of bias is hard for me to understand. I'm naturally an objective person. If science or a friend points out how I am misapprehending data, I immediately accept it and change my thinking. Apparently this isn't common. Despite the fact the enormous contradictory evidence, you still see the Rockets very own color commentator refusing to believe Lin's combine tests.
Anyway, why is Lin a good defender?:
1. Super competitive. Check out his trainer's comment at the bottom of this page:
http://spartascience.blogspot.com/2012/02/key-to-soreness.html
2. Smart. Playing the highest level of team defense requires brains. There are so many ways to affect team defense that people who haven't played high level competitive basketball don't understand. Here's a taste:
http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/06/15/time-for-more-collison/
3. Elite athleticism:
http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/03/life-in-the-fast-lane/
[1] http://lesswrong.com/lw/did/what_is_signaling_really/
@ Michael Terry
DeleteFinally a comprehensive analysis explaining why the Linsanity when it comes to bashing JLin's D. Much appreciated! I did not realise there were actual studies of it and even a handy term for this concept.
I recognised signalling in a few of my buddies when we were discussing JLin. They are Asians, so I thought they were doubting because they didn't want to show partiality towards an Asian athlete. Next time I enter into this type of discussion, its a useful concept to keep in mind, although it probably will not be something many people will acknowledge. After all, pointing out they are signalling is accusing them of exactly what they are trying to prevent from being called out for in the first place: being nonobjective and biased.
Very impressive Michael Terry! Thanks for the analysis!
DeleteIn fact - all that you have described can be found in a single video. It tottaly backs your analysis:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcAkP9Bkdds&feature=related
0:20 Toney Douglas is - hes is a better defender, a better scorer, a better player (than Lin)
1:13 Jeremy lin doesnt stand a chance (against Williams)... does a pretty good job there... I take back Lin "Lin doesnt stand a chance" - he defended him well (hahahahaha)
1:33 (People boooh JLin)
2:12 He sees the floor well (beginning of Linsanity)
4:32 ...for the Knicks fans became the Jeremy Lin Show
4:37 ...6points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, a stral, JUST 1 turnvoer (JUST 1 - weeks later people will bicker about 1 turnover - talking about JLins "turnover problem")
12:02 ...wow... Jeremy Lin does it again
14:37 (question to Lin) escpecially in the 2nd quarter you held Deren Williams scorless so what did you do defensively espcecially matched up against one of the top point guards in the league...
A lot of us have been saying the same thing that Michael Terry just said, and we've done it for MONTHS.
DeleteThere's signaling applied to us fans too. Specifically that if we have Asian screennames like I do, we don't know the game.
Michael Terry claims Lin is a good defender and gets correctly applauded for it. Khuang claims the same thing and gets flamed for it.
Absolutely. Naming concepts is always really helpful, especially when you want to demonstrate its presence in new contexts to people unfamiliar with it. People are more ready to understand and believe things that have names.
DeleteAlthough your friends may still resist, I promise that if you explain signaling to them, there will be at least a guilty part of them that recognizes the truth of the matter.
Last year, Lin was top 40 in PER[1]...and top 40 in adjusted +/-[2], a completely unrelated aggregate measure of winning ability. No one knows what the new season will bring, but last year, it is basically inarguable that Jeremy Lin was one of the top 40 players in the NBA.
[1] http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/year/2012
Note that John Hollinger, the developer of PER, is objectively the most accurate forecaster at ESPN (out of 30):
http://blog.pundittracker.com/nba-pundits-2011-12-report-card/
[2] http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?&year=2011-2012
@willydilly,
DeleteThanks for the link. I'd wanted to find a reference to Mike Breen's comment for future debates about Lin's defense, so that's really handy. I'm adding to my Evernote database. :)
@KHuang,
DeleteOnly here do I get this much applause for making this case. Plus, I've seen you applauded plenty, although you post a lot, so peoples' hands probably get tired. ;)
Believe me, the truth is not always so well received elsewhere. It's only through fighting many flames that I've refined my points this much.
You and I are on the SAME PAGE, Michael Terry.
DeleteOnly here do people analyze stats and talk about them intelligently.
I'm pretty sure that if you and I and the other stats hounds on this site sat in on an actual NBA player evaluation meeting, we'd be shaking our heads in disbelief at the INSANE notions that front offices have about who can play and who can't!!!
I watched the preseason game on League Pass. I thought JLin played well...definetly passed on alot of shots he should have taken. I didnt see him drive like he normally does but thats probably due to preseason. When he starts playing his game all out I expect him to score alot more. He's better the more minutes he plays and when the regular season starts I hope to see his 4th quarter magic. Looking forward to JLin getting better and better as these pre-season games progress.
ReplyDeleteI thought his defense was good.. not sure what he could have done more against westbrook on those picks.
Did you watch the preseason game on League Pass Broadband or TV? I have League Pass Broadband (no TV) but I can't figure out for the life of me how to get to the part of the NBA.com website that allows me to use it, lol.
DeleteI'm watched LP on my laptop. The address to the main page is:
Deletehttp://watch.nba.com/nba/
On the main nba.com site, there should be a search box near the top right hand corner with a bright red search button on it's right. Beneath the search box, mouse over the words "League Pass" and a drop down menu appears. Select the third item down, which is "LEAGUE PASS Broadband" and you should be at the same page using the link above. Hope it helps!
@wilc,
DeleteYou're outside the US, I assume? I have LP in the US and it won't let me watch preseason games.
Try a different browser. My league pass was not working well for me on firefox, but was good when using Chrome. I have a Mac.
DeleteLog in to:
http://www.nba.com/allaccess/watchListen.html
Then hit watch now. On Chrome I was asked to load an adobe extension and new window open containing the option to choose your game.
Link above from RioFan should work. I use broadband all of the preseason games are there I've been able to watch whatever I want. I heard if you have League pass for Cable TV some games are not broadcast (local market?) and depends on your provider.
DeleteI think only International Broadband LP will let us watch Pre-Season. I can only see the Audio version using "LP Broadband" for pre-season games. Too bad :(
DeleteThere was a thread on clutchfans forum with lots of links if you know what I mean...
Delete@ Michael Terry
DeleteYeah, I'm using the International LP.
I saw the Rockets game on B. LP on on Fios (USA). The have the Hornets game scheduled for Friday night on LP channel 2 (Fios). I signed up for LP on Tues so I can see all the preseason games.
DeleteThe fans in Houston area are pissed because the Rockets and the Astros have set up their own sports network (CSN Houston) Many of local cable companies and direct TV haven't picked up the channel.
They can't even get the games on League Pass because of blackout rules.
yes, thanks willydilly.
Delete@RioFan
DeleteWell, that's annoying. I'm sick of all the discrepancies with League Pass. Some people can get preseason games, some people can get HD games for all games...there's no consistency. Time Warner Cable won't have LP until regular season, but you're already able to get it with FIOS? WTF? And LP support got back to me and said LP Broadband will not have games until the start of the regular season. So irritating.
likes: J Lamb, Terrance Jones, Team defense & rebounding
ReplyDeleteDislikes: Carlos Delfino, Patrick Patterson (should be 2nd team), ball movement
I think the teams pace was wayyy too slow for Lin, teammates really need to hustle and always be alert because thats when Lin is at his very best, by not letting the opposing team get back on D. But I know that will change come regular season.Terrance Jones and Jeremy Lamb together with Lin is the way to go. Thats would bring Speed, Explosiveness, Excitement and plenty of assists for Lin.
BTW, did anyone else hear one of the commentator talking about Lin having a faster sprint time than D rose and John Wall??
Yeah - I did and someone else was talking about it too. If you watch some of JLins old games you can see him outplay John Wall. I dont mean to diss Wall. He is awesome. But - it only shows how unfair JLin was treated (not being drafted).
DeleteI was disappointed that the Rockets didn't score more points in transition. Whenever they got a steal, block, or long rebound .... The only one pushing up the court was Lin and Asik ? Fast break points will be essential for this young athletic team to win games, especially since they aren't that good shooting from the outside.
DeleteThat's a pretty good point you have there, ABC; even in the highlight video, you can see Lin get up the floor quickly on a fastbreak, but have to dribble around the top of the key, waiting for his teammates to catch up.
DeleteIndeed. During the combine tests, Lin tested in the same range athletically as Wall and Rose and had the fastest first step among Wall, Rose, and Kyrie Irving. This is why it's hilarious to me that even folks who should know better do no readily admit that Lin's upside is franchise player. How is it that a tremendous athlete with high basketball IQ and track record of played at an elite level in the NBA not have top 10 player as his potential? That's not to say it will happen, but that's definitely his upside, objectively.
DeleteYeah, and it's not acceptable for a young athletic Rockets team to let JLin run a fast break alone with no help. Granted OKC has good transition D ... but still the Rockets should be faster than that.
DeleteThats why - while I was watching last night - I asked if Ömer was ok. At some point he fell behind and Lin had to wait for him at the line with no screen to go to the basket... that happened a couple of times.
DeleteMcHale said today in interview he thought Omer got tired. I agree ABC there where a number of times Jeremy was alone on a transition. Looking forward to seeing the progression hopefully more output from JLin on Friday.
DeleteThe Houston Rockets are simply going to have to get used to the fact that they're now WIDE OPEN.
DeleteThat's what happens on Jeremy Lin teams. Guys hardly have to work to create their own shots because Lin does it for them.
It very well could be that Lin's Rockets team becomes a little like Bob Cousy's Celtics of the 60s - one super creative point guard creates shots for less talented teammates, so much so that the PG himself hardly needs to shoot!
I think they may have overworked Omer during training. If you read the interview on the Rockets website talking about how they were training up his offensive ability...it looks like he worked really really hard, maybe too hard. You can get burnt out that way.
DeleteOmer's probably tired from catching all those passes from Lin, as he never got the ball in Chicago when Derrick Rose was his "point guard".
DeleteKnicks preseason game in one hour. Curious to see how they will do without JLin.
ReplyDeleteMelo and JR Smith dominating the ball as usual even in preseason game?
DeleteLOL @ the Knicks blowing a 10 point lead. I turned on the tv and all I see is Felton and Priglioni take the ball dribble straight and shoot and miss. For a guy who's soo much better than Lin there is just no ball movement. Can't believe they're losing to the Wizards with a team of nobodies.
Delete@ cara
Deletestarters hmmp?
jr demand/request/wish=ball hog?
amare is injured?be back by nov.as per espn,chris smith as well(injured) hmmm
DeleteThe Knicks made me laugh. Do they realize they were playing a Wizards team without John Wall and Nene? All the guys who contributed today have zero upside and all their young guys struggled. I happen to think that NY will probably be okay this season but I predict they will keep getting worse in the next few years.
DeleteNo need to talk about Lin's Rockets, I predict even this John Wall's Wizards team will be better than the Knicks in 2 years.
DeleteI also feel sad for those loyal Knicks fans who pay hundreds for a MSG ticket. You know your team has nothing to get excited about when you have to be excited about a 35 year old rookie. Lol.
DeleteFelton's stats looked pretty decent for his first preseason game, I have to admit. Aside from Kidd, who I thought was terrible and slow, Knicks' PG situation is not too bad. The fact that Novak got some shots means they did move the ball enough to get him open looks. That Beal kid from Washington is going to be an All-star in near future -- smooth, deadly jump shots and can drive to the basket also. A better version of Reggie Miller.
DeleteYeah, everyone is a future All-Star after a decent preseason game. Only Lin could not be an All-Star after 25 REAL games.
DeleteLet's be honest. I only said I think "Beal" will be a future All-Star among Wizard players who played in the game. 25 real games do not make one player, whether that player is JLin or LeBron, an All-Star. You are lowering the level of All-Star to a very low level. I see Beal as a Reggie Miller shooting plus rebounding and being able to drive to the basket. Also, a very good FT shooter. JLin's biggest asset is he is a good facilitator in trying to give balls to others' strengths, but sometimes he zones in too hard and too much to give the ball even when the pass is not there, therefore leading to TOs. I think it's even fair to discount his TOs by one or two because he does get around 2 steals per game.
Delete@eb5attorney,
DeleteIf Beal guy continues to do well, he will be scouted more by other teams/guys - just as they did to Jeremy Lin from after the 2nd game on. Most haters repeat that Lin was NOT scouted during the Linsanity *until* the Heat game, which is a total BS. Looking at those footages, Lin was double-teams from very early on, due to the level of publicity..... I feel that Lin will be an all-star, but at this point, Beal played MUCH less games than Lin - to understate.
Bradley Beal has got a LONG WAY TO GO before he can be considered "better" than Reggie Miller.
DeleteReggie Miller is one of the great all time shooting guards of all time. He was also one of the DIRTIEST, using his hanfs and hips to shove guys aside because the refs let him. That guy got away with as much superstar illegality as Michael Jordan did.
Being a basketball purist, I am not as impressed by guys like Miller and Jordan who play by easier handicap rules than the rest of the NBA.
thanks for posting the youtube video, it's great to have fans post highlights, because they'll include plays that don't show up on the box score.
ReplyDeleteeb5attorney,
ReplyDeleteI don't know who you are a fan of but I know you definitely ain't no J Lin Fan.Why would you say J Lin's scoring is going to decrease? If you was a real J Lin fan you would only want the best for J Lin. Seems to me, you just want J Lin to have a mediocre career so you can be one of those long list of haters to say I told you so. But guess what?? Ain't happening buddy!!
You underestimate J Lin and mainly focus on his flaws, While us J Lin supporters see his upsides and continuous improvements. A "Decent" pg at best wont be the focal point for opposing team and wont be relied on or even given the opportunity to hit game wining shots. Things that will continue for J Lin. J Lin is going to be the Houston Rocket's franchise player so get with it or get lost.
Don't think you can shit on J Lin's game and get away with it. Real J Lin fans wont tolerate that. Who agrees with me. eb5attorney, that dude is annoyyyying!!!
Damon, I suggest you leave this forum if you get too annoyed. And do not twist my words. I have been consistent from the beginning that AT THIS POINT, he is an average NBA starter which is nothing to sneeze at and is a huge accomplishment. We all know JLin is a "real deal". But I am more interested in seeing the upside and whether he can get there. If you are a real JLin fan who continuously fawn over him and gloss over his mistakes, you are annoying and making JLin fans look like people who see nothing wrong with JLin game. I only focused on his basketball game and have consistently said from the beginning that I don't even care about his Christianity beliefs, which I respect but find irrelevant to his basketball game.
DeleteAlso related, I said I felt he had an okay first preseason game, unlike many people who were disappointed: he did somethings good and some things bad, a typical JLin game. You are "shitting" on many JLin fans who are not afraid to constructively criticize his game. In that sense, I rather see a highlight of his "mistakes" as well as his positives, so we can see where he could improve. Like I said, one full season should show aspects of his game more accurately. So in the meantime, unless someone made you an administrator, shut your mouth from criticizing anyone.
By the way, if the Administrator of this site feels that no one should criticize JLin's game here, then by all means, block me from posting here. There are actually other forums where you can give constructive criticisms on players. For example, I still believe OKC would do better with a JLin type of player than Westwood who seems to be intent on proving that he's just as good scorer as Durant. I think JLin can raise the level of Durant's game and other players at OKC who can really score. In that sense, I always thought Harden should go and a JLin type of player be brought in.
DeleteEasy there, eb5attorney.
DeleteNobody's calling for your ban. And I'm your FAN. We're all free to NOT like each other here.
I do agree with you that Jeremy Lin had a typical Lin game. My thing is that he created shots for others and the TEAM scored. That reminds me of when commentators used to say that if Magic Johnson was scoring, his team was LOSING because his teammates weren't producing!
I do agree that OKC would do better with a Lin type player, though I am not sure why you keep calling Westbrook "Westwood". The OKC frontcourters, particularly Perkins and Ibaka and Aldrich, would benefit from receiving a few easy baskets a game from Lin passes.
As far as James Harden goes, I'm not convinced he's the max contract superstar that everybody makes him out to be. Plus, I don't think he's better than Kevin Martin or Jeremy Lamb.
If we're talking about bringing in a young player that can help Lin, how about Tyreke Evans of Sacramento? That guy has SERIOUS game, much more than the athletically limited Harden does. Evans beside Lin would mean that Lin is not the only guy on the court that can put the ball on the floor and create for others.
After watching the Rockets play, I now understand why Scott Machado gets paired with Jeremy Lin. He's the only point guard on the roster that can create shots for Jeremy Lin. The trouble with Machado is that he's a backup in the NBA at best due to his lack of physicality. That's why it would be neat to pair Lin with a guy like Tyreke Evans who can create shots for Lin!
Tyreke just makes me shake my head.
DeleteHe has all the tools and potential to be a great player but I think his basketball IQ is just too low and he also seriously lacks work ethic.
Since his rookie year he's shown absolutely no improvement in his game whatsoever and if he can't get to the basket he's ineffective since his jumper is broken.
He's content to simply get by on his athleticism without striving to improve other aspects of his game. Not sure how much of his issues come down to coaching or simply his attitude.
If Evans played next to Lin and couldn't produce, it would be due to attitude and not talent.
DeleteTyreke Evans is as talented a guard there is in the NBA.
@eb5attorney:
DeleteI like your posts. I have no problem with JLin critique as long as people criticise him in an honest and productive way - like you did above.
does anyone know how to watch tonights Houston game for California residents without a league pass? I tried using that frombar.tv website for Wednesday's game, but got a lot of junk on my computer, plus the picture quality was extremely poor. Kept getting x-rated female voices in the background. Had to shut my Mac down. Appreciate any suggestions.
ReplyDeleteGoogle "thefirstrow".
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