Sunday, July 22, 2012

What to expect in Houston

Justin Welton of the Bleacher Report weighs in on why the Knicks made a big mistake. We couldn't have said it better ourselves.

A few additional thoughts:

  • Even if Dolan had a problem with the third year of JLin's contract, the Knicks could have traded JLin at that point and recovered some value for him. The fact is that the Knicks lost JLin and got nothing in return.
  • Analysis of JLin's performance before the All-Star break showed that his PER was off the charts. Even though it declined slightly, a competent GM and owner need to evaluate JLin by asking: if we were going to draft a player knowing that he would perform (even at that declined level) which was still better than 95% of the rookies drafted, what would he be worth? JLin's upside is huge and, in that light, his contract certainly was not "ridiculous."
But enough about the past. What are our predictions for the 2012-13 season? Stay tuned. I think each of the three of us migt have a different take, frankly.

 

21 comments:

  1. I am afraid with all this contract talk, that there will be even more backlash against JLin this season. See (Kidd's uncalled fragrant foul and 3 against 1 Miami game.)

    http://basketball.realgm.com/article/222413/Rose_Needs_To_Dial_Down_Intensity_To_Sustain_Long_Term_Health

    "So when a teammate in the locker room alerted the hobbled Rose about Linsanity and that analysts had already begun to mention Lin among the upper-echelon point guards, Rose became enraged and flatly stated, “When do we play [the Knicks] next?”

    "He could only think about besting Lin in their head-to-head matchup while propelling the Bulls to an emphatic win. From the outset of that 104-99 Bulls’ victory on March 12, Rose looked to be on a mission and was as charged up as he had been all season long – draped over Lin’s jersey defensively, pushing the ball in transition at every opportunity on offense, and racking up a season-high 29 shot attempts for 32 points."

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    1. Well. Everybody said (well not everybody. ^_^) Lin is unproven. This is his chance. This is his challenge that he has to accept. He has to earn the respect.

      I do hope that Lin will be able to endure the test and healthily enter the playoff this incoming season.

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    2. Jeremy blocked Rose's shot so hard in that game that he sent Rose to the injured list. Look it up. Even Rose admits tweaking something during that play.

      These personal vendettas rarely work out. You have to pace yourself within a game and play within the game plan. Jeremy is too smart to get caught up other people's issues with him.

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    3. I think any one of us would have loved to take a crack at JLin, if we were in DRose/CP3/DWill's shoes. Think about it, it took constant double-triple team by Heat to shut him down and take advantage of a Knicks offense that couldn't take advantage of JLin drawing away defenders. I'm sure they either hate him or have some measure of respect for him now.

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    4. It's mad TRUE respect for guys to hate you so much that they play their hardest to disrespect you.

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  2. Although I still think Morey will manage to trade for Dwight, I can absolutely live with Jeremy leading a rebuilding team of youngsters.

    Motiejunas, in particular, could be very good, very soon. It's only Summer League, but his agility in the post was totally unmatched. How many current NBA bigs can flash those moves (even in practice)? Now factor in his nice shooting stroke...and wow. He might be weak on defense, but that's why you have Omer Asik at C. Motiejunas also has a cocky "bring 'em on" attitude that I kinda like (on the court).

    I don't know. We saw what Lin accomplished with Tyson, Jeffries, Novak/Walker, and Fields/Shumpert. Is Asik, Motiejunas, Parsons/Jones, Martin/Lamb that much of a downgrade? Especially with Lin likely to improve this year.

    Obviously, D-12 and Linsanity would be a deadly PnR combo, but that would also mean trading the lone proven outside shooter on the roster (Kevin Martin). Then again, getting Jason Richardson as part of the trade might be enough until Lamb is ready to play heavy minutes.

    So with all that said, I'd definitely trade for Dwight (and gamble on resigning him) as long as you can keep Motiejunas and Lamb. Trade the 1st rd picks, 2nd picks, Martin, Terrence Jones (who has really impressed but they already have Parsons) and filler. But not Lamb or Motiejunas.

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    1. BTW, as KHuang has said, I'd also love to see Houston bring back Earl Boykins as a backup PG/SG. He can teach Jeremy a few veteran tricks, provide a scoring punch when Lin is on the bench, and at 5'-5" no defender can take away his dribble.

      Boykins is not a great playmaker, but the Rockets have an intriguing "point-forward" in Royce White who could play well alongside Boykins. White is also built like a tank and not shy about getting in people's faces when they try to punk his teammates.

      Ideal Lineup w/ Howard:

      Lin/Boykins/Machado
      Richardson/Lamb/Boykins
      Parsons/FA who can shoot*/Morris
      Motiejunas/Patterson/White
      Howard/Asik/Harrelson

      [*Bill Walker?]

      Ideal Lineup w/o Howard:

      Lin/Boykins/Machado
      Martin/Lamb/Boykins
      Parsons/Jones/Morris
      Motiejunas/White/Patterson
      Asik/Patterson/Harrelson

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    2. Thanks for the shoutout, zxcvb.

      I recommended Boykins for another reason: he's inexpensive.

      To me, Earl Boykins is great value for the low salary he is being paid.

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  3. I'd rather have Nate Robinson than Boykins, but I guess the Warriors already locked in Nate.

    I have no idea why the Rockets are paying so much for Omer Asik ... the big guy has no post moves, can't shoot free throws, no mid range J, can't defend. Just because he's 7-foot tall does not make him a good asset.

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    1. Uh, Asik is one of the better defenders at C in the NBA.

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  4. So if the Rockets trade for Dwight, what would the Magic get, I know they can get rid of richardsons contract, but I don't think Martin alone would suffice for the Dwight Howard. I just hope they don't take awaay any of the rookies this year, they're all very good.

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    1. Something like:

      -Kevin Martin
      -1st Rd pick from Raptors (3-14)
      -1st Rd pick from Mavs (20-30)
      -Terrence Jones (i.e. one of the "top" rooks)
      -Filler (Patterson, Morris, 2nd round picks, etc.)

      ...for Dwight and Richardson.

      Orlando doesn't have enough leverage to demand Motiejunas or Lamb (much less both of them). Jones looks really promising, too, but the Rockets can let him go because they already have Parsons at SF.

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  5. lol... i do not know anyone in the rockets roster. but i'll get to know them sooner and support them all the way! ha ha ha

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    1. LOL. their roster is very young but I'm excited to watch what they can accomplish.

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  6. asik as mentioned above is a good/great defensive player. his offensive game is rudimentary. but there aren't too many complete centers out there like d12 and this young rockets team has more offensive weapons than defensive so it's not a bad choice. plus I think ultimately asik was meant to backup d12 or someone else.

    personally I hope d12 doesn't go to houston. they have some nice young players they'd have to ship out and for what, one year with dwight with very little chance to no at winning the championship? I don't see the point.

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    1. If Asik is such a good defensive player, why did the Bulls start Joakim Noah instead of Asik last season ?

      D12 doesn't have much offensive skills either, most of his shots are point blank, his low post game consists of spinning to his right. His real value is in rebounding and defense/shot blocking. And those aren't really hard to find skills in the NBA, it's just that D12 does it really good.

      I think the only real all around centers in the league would be Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Roy Hibbert.

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    2. If you read the Bull's board, it appears most of them liked Asik and praised his defense. They didn't match because of the contract and cap space. The Houston used what they have, cap space.

      http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1197780

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    3. Now that I've seen Donatas Motiejeunas play, I think I understand better why Omer Asik was offered a contract.

      Assuming the Rockets don't get Dwight Howard, the Rockets need a powerful big man down low to provide a physical presence on defense. Omer Asik is that guy, whether he starts or not.

      What the Rockets can do is pair the perimeter shooting Motiejeunas with the inside banging Asik to provide the height inside that Kevin McHale wants. Then the Rockets will slide both Terrence Jones and Royce White to the 3 behind Chandler Parsons. It's about SIZE.

      Donatas Motiejeunas reminds me of another outside shooting foreign big man who has had a very successful career in the NBA: Mehmet Okur.

      I don't see Motiejeunas ever becoming a low post threat. However, McHale will likely use him as a high post screener especially with Jeremy Lin.

      Look for Motiejeunas to have some Steve Novak-like outings, provided that the Rockets can provide enough physicality at center with Omer Asik to prevent opponents from jamming the perimeter.

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  7. Hopefully Lin can continue making guys around him look good like he did with Novak, Fields, JR Smith, etc... I see the Rockets finishing with a better record than the Knicks this year. Lin will help their cause.

    http://www.sportsfanhood.com/2012/07/linsanity-in-houston.html

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  8. Honestly I don't like Jeremy in Houston because I think they want him more for "Linsanity" than for his basketball. At least that's the impression I got from the owner who seemed more excited by the number of reporters there and the prospect of nationally televised games than his coach or his gm were at the prospect of Jeremy Lin the basketball player.

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    1. It doesn't matter whatever reason Houston want Lin. Even they really only want him for marketing at the beginning. It's still fine. It's the fact that they want him and will give him every opportunity to play that is the most important. Lin just needs an opportunity to play and then he will prove himself on the court, just like he did in NY. No need to worry about that.

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