It is being reported by multiple sources that Jeremy Lin has agreed to terms and will sign an offer sheet from the Houston Rockets on July 11th. The NY Knicks will then have 3 days to match!
Maybe 4yr/32M + 1M-per-year bonuses for All-Star appearances (which Dragic got in Phoenix). And with Jeremy's popularity, a 17p/8a/2s line could have him voted in as an All-Star.
Is this the same 4 years $30 million proposed before? It would be funny if Mark Cuban swooped in and offers $40 mill.... But its probably too late for that.
The way Melo likes to hold on to the ball until there are 5 seconds left on the shot clock, an effectiveness of a good PG is not really needed. Knicks should not match the offer unless the Knicks want to play a different kind of ball. Having said this, I think Knicks will match the offer for various reasons.
Anthony's game actually varies quite a bit depending on what kind of PG he's working with.
Just watching Lin highlight vids on youtube, there are tantalizing instances that show Lin and Anthony have the potential to be a very good PG-SF dynamic duo. On par with Westbrook-Durant, except Lin and Anthony are better passers.
Yeah, sounds like 4yr/30M. With a team option on the 4th year. Unless there are some major incentives like I mentioned earlier, I don't see why Houston even made an offer...Knicks are going to match 4/30. Especially with the team option.
I hope Morey knows something we don't (i.e. that Dolan and Grunwald privately don't want to spend that much for some reason). But yeah, 4/30 ain't gonna do it, IMO.
No way. Did Grunwald slip Morey some kickback under the table?
It's been reported that the maximum contract the Knicks could offer Lin is 4/24, or 5 mil per with raises. The only way the Knicks could pay Lin more than that was via matching another team's offer.
If it's true that Lin's contract will be 5/5/10 with the 4th year's 10 mil as a team option, that's as friendly a contract to the Knicks as the Knicks could have expected on the FA market.
If true, then Lin's 5 mil per helps the Knicks fill out the roster for the next 2 years. Then in the 3rd year, the Knicks will have all expiring contracts, including effectively Lin's contract, to trade or hold onto for a final run.
That deal is just too good for the Knicks. I'll believe it when I see it.
Again, why did Houston even bother? That's Dolan's caviar budget.
Anyways, major congrats to Jeremy. From no D-I scholarships...to undrafted Ivy Leaguer...to 3rd string bench warmer...to rising star PG making $7.25M/yr (not to mention Linsane endorsement opportunities).
Maybe Lin really IS loyal to the Knicks. Is that really the best deal he could find on the market? I pegged Lin's basketball value as equivalent to a #1 overall draft pick, but with added marketing value, bidding wars, and everything else, I expected Lin would get a better offer than that.
Do the Rockets owe the Knicks a favor? Did they just buy themselves a favor from the Knicks? I can't believe either Lin or the Rockets believe 4/29 ... with a team option!!! ... would dissuade the Knicks from matching. This contract ain't exactly Gordon warning off the Hornets with a max offer from the Suns.
Hm. I wonder if Lin will be able to rejoin the select team?
As a player when you are not mentioned to be a starter in public and you are talking about loyal to the Knicks. come on , you must be looking yourself as a slavery
Since 4th year is a team option, it's really a 3-yr $20M contract. I can't see the Knicks not matching that. Guess Lin will remain a Knick. I wasn't very high on Houston anyways.
Congrats for JLin! Glad thats over I can stop looking at every nba forum on the internet now. I also dont know what Houston was thinking if they really wanted him that sounds a bit weak on their part. I also thought maybe Mav's would step up as their PG is in a horrible state. 3 years with Knicks min.
Yeah, it looks a lot more like a favor to the Knicks than a since effort to steal Lin from the Knicks. That would be collusion, though.
Looks like Kidd knew something when he cited mentoring his Bay area compatriot as a reason for suddenly rejecting the Mavs, who supposedly also were interested in Lin, and joining the Knicks.
It will be a shock if the Knicks don't match this contract. It's like Christmas in July for them.
Yeah they will match that without a doubt. Unless there's some S&T out there we don't know about but I can't see the Knicks letting JLin go unless he said I don't want to be there. I guess we will know for sure on the 11th +3
Can't match and trade, so Lin can't be included in a sign and trade. Again, one of those arcane CBA things I don't know for myself, but the media tells me them's the rules.
Yeah, I thought the Mavs would express interest, but it doesn't surprise me that we haven't heard a peep out of them. They're kind of like the Spurs, they prefer older veterans to young talent, the anti-youth movement.
I think NBA fans in general are ignorant, on forums they keep using the same media terms that ESPN uses, "Flash in the Pan", "injury prone", "turnover machine", etc. Fans don't know how to watch the game and think for themselves. But you can find this all over the NBA, fans have really short attention spans, they think its a video game.
Lin will play better and he's not injury prone. It's hard on a body to go from 4 minutes per game to 40 minutes per game as a starter. Add the wear and tear of trying to prove himself in practice and doing all the scoring for his D-league team And there's the source of the injuries, inconsistent playing time and constantly attacking the rim to draw fouls. If he plays decent minutes regularly at a more controlled pace, he'll be fine. Heres hoping for a blessed 2012-2013.
I'm looking at 33-35 MPG for Lin, Bibby's MPG in his 1st 2 seasons under Woodson as a full starting PG before Jamal Crawford warped his stats (and Bibby fell apart).
As far as a more controlled pace, I'm optimistic. My reference game for Lin under Woodson, which won my approval for Woodson coaching Lin, is the 2nd Pacers game in Indianopolis on the back-to-back. Presumably, the Pacers were better prepared for Lin with a rematch and on their homecourt. Woodson's structured system moderated Lin's game while also preserving his strengths. Lin's game that night was balanced and efficient, and the ball was in his hands down the stretch.
Then of course, there's the 76ers game. Woodson trusted Lin to carry the team back against a tough motivated 76ers team in Philly, in the 4Q, while Anthony and Stoudemire were on the court, and after Lin had started the game 1-11.
Some Lin fans have a problem with Woodson, but the evidence on the court from their 7 games together (6-1) says Woodson will coach Lin fine.
I'm just concerned about this signing of Kidd. Lin's combo-guard game would be a perfect complement for a younger Kidd - a better version of Kidd-Barea, 2010-11 play-offs. With the current Kidd, I just don't know how much he has left in the tank.
I'm worried that Kidd doesn't have enough game left to ensure Lin won't be overused.
JesLee: Rumor is Mavs are talking to Ramon Sessions. There are PGs still available, just none that stand out as difference-makers.
The Mavs' passivity, given their glaring team needs, has been the surprise of the off-season so far. I can only guess they're keeping their powder dry for a run at Howard and/or Paul. But Nowitzki ain't getting any younger and they already tanked last season.
I hope the Knicks do not match the offer and that JLin rejects anything NY sends his way. Playing with ISO Melo will NEVER change. New York was great for JLin for what it was..BUT REMEMBER it wasn't the New York organization that gave him a chance, the Knicks mgmt. were going to cut JLin and had ZERO intentions of ever starting him. It was bc of Mike Dantoni...
Jlin's contract is effectively only $20M for 3 years since 4th year is team option. That's the best offer he got from only 1 interested team. I've been on the numerous message boards of the various teams and from what I can tell, except for New York, all the other teams' fans think JLin was a fluke and overhyped. Looks like other than Morey, the scouts and GMs felt the same way.
life is like a box of cho , how much do we know about the future ? It is fair that what Lin did for his past set a tone for his contract $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
3/20 is Fields's offer from the Raptors. Unbelieveable.
I had pegged Lin's basketball value as equivalent to a #1 overall draft pick, which has a rookie scale contract of about 4 years, 5 per, with 2 team options. That's a pretty good approximation of what he ended up with, but with his added marketing value and other factors, I had expected Lin would get something better than this offer.
I can say tongue-in-cheek that Lin showed his loyalty to the Knicks with this contract, but realistically, I'm sure his high-powered agent Jim Tanner explored the market. Perhaps the small sample size due to injury, with the failure to make a token appearance against the Heat, did make teams cautious enough to wait for a larger body of work and Lin's next free agency, when he'll be 26-28, before making a superstar investment.
Daryl Morey gifting Kyle Lowry to Toronto took away much of Jeremy's leverage.
He gave the Raptors a low-cost Top 10 starting PG in exchange for a single protected 1st rounder and, uh, Gary Forbes. So basically a mid-to-late lottery pick and dead weight. Huh?
If he's going full-on tank mode, which is possible, why woo and offer a contract to Lin at all? It's as if Morey truly believes the Knicks may not match 4/29M.
But hey, whatever...I'll be thrilled to watch Jeremy light up The Garden for years to come. If Melo, Amare and Lin can finally gel next season, the Knicks can absolutely be title contenders. Bring back JR Smith, too, he's streaky but they need a SG who can actually hit some 3s.
I welcome explanations for the Rockets and the Mavericks this off-season. The Rockets seem aimlessly frenetic with their moves while the Mavericks seem oddly passive, mellow even despite glaring team needs.
Is there some long game both teams are playing that we lowly fans simply can't see yet?
I think the Mavs are conceding a crappy '12-'13...before they go after CP3 and/or Dwight in '13-'14. Dirk won't be happy to lose a year of his waning prime, but there's nothing Dallas can do now that Deron is re-upping with Brooklyn.
That makes some sense (and explains why they didn't want to offer J-Lin a 3-4 year contract). As for the Rockets...I have no clue what they're doing.
Harsh tanking 2 years of Nowitzki's dwindling prime. Almost as bad as what the Suns did with the end of Nash's prime, except at least Nowitzki won a championship.
K: Lin is a rising 3rd year player, who was often referred to and judged as a virtual rookie in his 2nd year. In his 2 years in the NBA, Lin did well in the D league, then showed dazzling talent and potential in a very promising but ultimately small sample size in year 2 due to a wear-and-tear injury that caused him to miss the post-season.
If I were a GM or owner ... I believe the small sample size, especially the missed post-season, due to injury caused teams to be cautious about investing big this time around. When Lin answers the doubts and concerns with an NBA standard sample size, he'll be ready to be paid at his talent level.
I didn't say Lin was a #1 overall. We were trying to get into the heads of GMs and owners and peg their evaluations of Lin. A lowly fan isn't privvy to the inner decision-making of NBA front offices, but a lowly fan does know their assigned values to #1 overall 'can't miss' draft picks. Lin showed he's a 'can't miss' talent. From there, I pegged Lin's basketball value - by analogy - as equivalent or approximated at a #1 overall. Lin presented a similar mix of 'can't miss' promise, doubts, and concerns as a #1 overall. Again, not the same thing - Lin had shown his strengths and weaknesses in actual NBA games and had added values that draft picks do not have. But it was close enough to generalize a baseline, using a known NBA front office value system, to anticipate what Lin's contract offers might be.
I'm still not privvy to the inner decision-making of NBA front offices, but I think my ad hoc analogy worked out okay.
Lin has been battling nonstop for the last two years in order to get to where he is today.
When you erroneously call him a virtual rookie, you willfully ignore the entirety of his hard work that kept him in the NBA and out of the D league.
No real life rookie has endured two full training camps with two different NBA teams, been sent down to the D League 4 times by different teams, has already practiced one and a part seasons against actual NBA players, and has gone through an NBA offseason. By negating these experiences, you give short shrift to the Herculean effort Lin put in to get to this point. And that's why you don't believe in his game.
When Mike Woodson or the press or you give short shrift to Lin's study and self sacrifice by calling him a "virtual rookie", you openly imply that his efforts were totally useless and that his knee is weak because he didn't work hard enough. You and Woodson and the press are all WRONG.
Again K, we were getting into the heads of GMs and owners. I think just as highly of Lin as you do. But neither you or I were in charge of an NBA front office making the decision on a contract offer to Lin.
We were trying to figure out how THEY evaluate Lin, not how WE cherish him.
Add: For some Lin fans, it's all about hate and racism. Some of it is, but not all of it. We can at least try to break out of the box and get on top of the rest.
I'm not interested in what is going on in James Dolan's (formerly) coke addicted head or Mike Woodson's negative press commenting head or Glen Grunwald's minimum wage head.
You bet that it's about hate and racism for some Lin fans. Lin's efforts and production have been ignored or devalued just because he's Asian. Lin gets doubted more because he's Asian even though most NBA pgs have not produced as he has.
Just because NBA execs do their asinine thinking doesn't make it right or agreeable. Herd mentality where the consensus of the majority doesn't make the racially based dismissal of Lin's incredible game any less revolting.
This "virtual rookie" garbage is just another ploy to degrade Lin's efforts. He didn't sit on Landry Fields' couch and eat bonbons before his knee gave out. No, Lin was BUSTING HIS BUTT fighting desperately for an NBA position.
If you really are a Lin or even an NBA fan like myself Eric, you ought to stop calling a battle hardened minor league conqueror NBA veteran like Lin a "virtual rookie". Lin put in the work to not have to walk around town wearing "Hello Kitty" bags the way true rookies do, and Lin has produced GREAT in actual NBA games in the 2010-2011 season.
I agree. The Knicks have several needs still outstanding and SG just moved to top of the list.
Hiring Kidd makes the SG issue interesting, though, because if Kidd still has game and can handle mid-high MPG, Lin's SG/PG combo guard game is tailor-made to complement Kidd. That would reduce the need at SG and affect how the Knicks fill out the roster. I just have my doubts Kidd has enough game left or can handle starting MPG anymore.
With free agency and injuries knocking players off the Knick roster like dominoes, Lin might even back up Carmelo Anthony at SF in a 3 guard lineup in certain instances.
JLin will come back stronger than ever, this man is destined for greatness. If you look at his journey, you know he's special and mentally there is no one in the league that are stronger than him, not even Kobe. If Kobe would have gone through what Jeremy's had gone through, he would not even steps foot in the NBA.
Houston's four-year offer to Jeremy Lin includes a team option in the fourth year. He would make $5 million in year one, $5.2 million in year two and $9.3 million in each of years three and four.
Once again, Lin will prove the doubters wrong and make his 30 million contract worth it and them some... I think Lin is built for this kind of stuff, proving the haters wrong again, and I'm talking to the City Of Houston... NY loves Lin but proving that he could be a franchise player is another chapter in the Lin Saga...
Exactly, Jeremy is developing MUCH faster than Steve Nash did with Dallas, but not as fast as Rondo, Rubio, or Westbrook because those guys didn't have to graduate from an Ivy League University.
I don't understand these teams. The list of guards left is very thin. Jeremy Lin is the best option out there. He will make up for his salary and some for the team with his appeal. He made NYK $300 million, right? It's as simple as that. With that kind of profit, what's alittle luxury tax? I am really scratching my head on this. Unless you have a win now attitude where you need immediate mega superstar to help your team, you've got nothing to lose. Even then you can still afford to have Lin on the roster. Think China! Upside gallore. Make money, have an experienced veteran, have an up and coming guard (LIn) adding to the depth, and make money! As a GM, you've got all the data in front of you. Heck, even the general fan can spout out the data and benefits of having Lin. Don't even mention the injury factor. It didn't stop NYK from signing Baron Davis, or any other player. If I was a GM I'd snatch Jeremy up like a thief. For all of the newbie GM's, this is the easiest decision you'll ever make. Go for it!
I really did think Dallas was in the hunt since they where so quite. I'm super perplexed by there moves, I guess they planned on blowing it up and rebuid next year. Well the good thing is JLin will be starting and the Knicks will be in the playoffs so he's going to get pleanty of experience. Everyone said it would take Steve Nash to bring that team together I really want to see JLin do it, I think he can.
And really his contract isnt going to be to shabby.. I mean He's a instant multi-millionare playing the game he loves. I mean sleeping on your buddies coach to 20 million in the bank!
I thought the Raptors would make a run at Lin. The Nets, if they had failed with Williams. As for other teams we've discussed, such as the Bobcats, Warriors, and Mavericks, I can only assume Lin's people, led by Jim Tanner, made their rounds. And the best deal came from the Rockets, who made an offer that would shock us if the Knicks don't match.
Why did the Rockets even bother making the offer? It's like they tried to help the Knicks. Why 9.3 mil and not 10 mil? And a team option?
Interesting thing about Kidd is that he has the elder-statesman stature/respect/cachet/juice of Nash to talk down to Anthony and Stoudemire, but Nash coming off last season still has some game left. Who knows how much game Kidd has left; he didn't show much last season. Broadly speaking, Lin has game at PG but not yet the stature (like Rondo, Lin will get it) and Kidd has stature at PG but no longer the game. I wonder how that will work out as far as managing their teammates?
When I saw that Lin was not a Plan A for any team as soon as free agency period hit and Dragic got $30M for 4 years from Phoenix, I had a feeling Lin was not as highly valued by the NBA GMs and that he was going to get a much more modest contract. 3 years $20M really surprised me though as being too low for a 23 year old starting PG. Hopefully he uses this as motivation to get better and he is able to earn a max contract in 4 years.
I suspect that morey and colangelo must have struck a deal. imo the offer from houston was secondarily an attempt at getting lin and partially a favor to yao. but this was primarily a way to unload lowry while still saving face. lowry was enough to stop a bidding war for lin.
from what i've read on another forum another secondary goal is probably to force the knicks to go over the hard salary cap and get penalized via the luxury tax. with the new cba rules I think the luxury tax money gets spread out to the teams under the cap.
in retrospect lin probably could have waited a few more days to see if a bidding war would start.
I think Dallas Mavericks didn't go after Lin because:
1. Lin is a Restricted Free Agent. The odds of signing another team's Restricted Free Agent is rather slim. Because their team has the power to match the offer. So unless someone breaks the bank for Jeremy Lin, it's a waste of time to even try. Grunwald has promised to match any offer, and every NBA GM believes him.
2. They are saving up to make a push for Dwight Howard or Chris Paul in 2013.
Yeah, every team we speculated might be interested in Lin might actually have been interested in him, just not at the price necessary to outbid the Knicks. Not at this point of Lin's career.
Tanking a 2nd straight year of Nowitzki's dwindling prime is tough.
I'm sorry if people were offended or hurt by my post that indicated Lin is not as highly desired as you guys might think. I'm as big a Lin fan as anybody here. But the fact of the matter is Lin did in fact not get any other contract offers other than the one from Houston. Whether this was a fair deal or not that's a separate matter. But needless to say, the common assumption and expectation that GMs are going to be all over Lin clearly did not materialize. The contract he got is nothing to sneeze at but I think to a certain extent, he's got to be feeling like he is still being doubted and he still needs to prove himself yet once again.
I guess its not a total shock..seems like JLin has been dealing what this kind of stuff his entire basketball life. I dont think 3 years 20 million is to low, I mean thats a huge raise ~700k to 20 mill over 3 years. Look, I see it as a positive, he's at max for the next 2 years and then up to about 10 mill/year. By the time this contract ends well see then he's still only going to be 27!
Who said we were offended by your post, Mr. Screwup?
Before Lin even finished the NBA season, most of us here were commenting about how Lin was going to be undervalued and.underpaid by GMs that say that "he's a D league player". So none of us are surprised that teams do not understand Lin's true value on and off the court.
We fully expect the haters to spew garbage AFTER Lin signs his contract and produces. Every time Lin makes a turnover, lots of fans are going to say that he's not worth the contract he signed. A lot of NBA scouts feel the same way even after Lin dominated the games they were watching.
Most of us on this board are true diehard NBA fans who don't need a biased media to figure out for us who can play and who can't. That's why we can admire Lin for what he really is: the BEST young pg in the NBA today.
Doubters will doubt, haters will hate. For some reason Rockets fans hate Lin, calling him Yao the second...As if the latter is actually anything like the former. He isn't selfish nor a cancer like Lowry or Melo, he lifts and empowers those around him, given the chance. With Kidd he's virtually guaranteed to stay with Knicks, no doubt there'll be some interesting possibilities with the two, heck Lin might even defer starting out of respect for Kidd, that's the kind of man he is.
Being called Yao the Second is a great honor in a backhanded type of way.
Yao was a #1 overall pick and an All Star center before he retired. He gave Houston his all and retired as one of Houston's great centers. It would be an honor for Lin to be compared to his NBA mentor, Yao.
I was predicting inconsistent play for Steve Nash if he started over Lin and thus was going to get hammered by Lin in practice. In Kidd's case, Kidd no longer produces enough for Lin to punk down his game if Kidd is named the starter.
Did trading Lowry for Forbes free up more money?
ReplyDeleteMaybe 4yr/32M + 1M-per-year bonuses for All-Star appearances (which Dragic got in Phoenix). And with Jeremy's popularity, a 17p/8a/2s line could have him voted in as an All-Star.
Can't wait to see how this unfolds...
So this means that Lin can only be a Rocket or Knick next year, right? No other team can give him an offer now?
ReplyDeleteIs this the same 4 years $30 million proposed before? It would be funny if Mark Cuban swooped in and offers $40 mill.... But its probably too late for that.
ReplyDeleteThe way Melo likes to hold on to the ball until there are 5 seconds left on the shot clock, an effectiveness of a good PG is not really needed. Knicks should not match the offer unless the Knicks want to play a different kind of ball. Having said this, I think Knicks will match the offer for various reasons.
ReplyDeleteu got the right one baby ....Ha Ha Ha
DeleteAnthony's game actually varies quite a bit depending on what kind of PG he's working with.
DeleteJust watching Lin highlight vids on youtube, there are tantalizing instances that show Lin and Anthony have the potential to be a very good PG-SF dynamic duo. On par with Westbrook-Durant, except Lin and Anthony are better passers.
Yeah, sounds like 4yr/30M. With a team option on the 4th year. Unless there are some major incentives like I mentioned earlier, I don't see why Houston even made an offer...Knicks are going to match 4/30. Especially with the team option.
ReplyDeleteI hope Morey knows something we don't (i.e. that Dolan and Grunwald privately don't want to spend that much for some reason). But yeah, 4/30 ain't gonna do it, IMO.
No way. Did Grunwald slip Morey some kickback under the table?
DeleteIt's been reported that the maximum contract the Knicks could offer Lin is 4/24, or 5 mil per with raises. The only way the Knicks could pay Lin more than that was via matching another team's offer.
If it's true that Lin's contract will be 5/5/10 with the 4th year's 10 mil as a team option, that's as friendly a contract to the Knicks as the Knicks could have expected on the FA market.
If true, then Lin's 5 mil per helps the Knicks fill out the roster for the next 2 years. Then in the 3rd year, the Knicks will have all expiring contracts, including effectively Lin's contract, to trade or hold onto for a final run.
That deal is just too good for the Knicks. I'll believe it when I see it.
Make that 4/29. With a 4th year team option.
DeleteAgain, why did Houston even bother? That's Dolan's caviar budget.
Anyways, major congrats to Jeremy. From no D-I scholarships...to undrafted Ivy Leaguer...to 3rd string bench warmer...to rising star PG making $7.25M/yr (not to mention Linsane endorsement opportunities).
What a long, strange road it's been.
Maybe Lin really IS loyal to the Knicks. Is that really the best deal he could find on the market? I pegged Lin's basketball value as equivalent to a #1 overall draft pick, but with added marketing value, bidding wars, and everything else, I expected Lin would get a better offer than that.
DeleteDo the Rockets owe the Knicks a favor? Did they just buy themselves a favor from the Knicks? I can't believe either Lin or the Rockets believe 4/29 ... with a team option!!! ... would dissuade the Knicks from matching. This contract ain't exactly Gordon warning off the Hornets with a max offer from the Suns.
Hm. I wonder if Lin will be able to rejoin the select team?
As a player when you are not mentioned to be a starter in public and you are talking about loyal to the Knicks. come on , you must be looking yourself as a slavery
DeleteSince 4th year is a team option, it's really a 3-yr $20M contract. I can't see the Knicks not matching that. Guess Lin will remain a Knick. I wasn't very high on Houston anyways.
ReplyDeleteCongrats for JLin! Glad thats over I can stop looking at every nba forum on the internet now. I also dont know what Houston was thinking if they really wanted him that sounds a bit weak on their part. I also thought maybe Mav's would step up as their PG is in a horrible state. 3 years with Knicks min.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it looks a lot more like a favor to the Knicks than a since effort to steal Lin from the Knicks. That would be collusion, though.
DeleteLooks like Kidd knew something when he cited mentoring his Bay area compatriot as a reason for suddenly rejecting the Mavs, who supposedly also were interested in Lin, and joining the Knicks.
It will be a shock if the Knicks don't match this contract. It's like Christmas in July for them.
Yeah they will match that without a doubt. Unless there's some S&T out there we don't know about but I can't see the Knicks letting JLin go unless he said I don't want to be there. I guess we will know for sure on the 11th +3
Delete:)
Can't match and trade, so Lin can't be included in a sign and trade. Again, one of those arcane CBA things I don't know for myself, but the media tells me them's the rules.
DeleteAdd: Even if Lin begs the Knicks to leave him in Houston, 4/29 ... with a team option!!! ... is too good a deal to pass on.
DeleteIf the Rockets and Knicks follow up with a lopsided trade favoring the Rockets, I wonder if there will be an investigation.
Yeah, I thought the Mavs would express interest, but it doesn't surprise me that we haven't heard a peep out of them. They're kind of like the Spurs, they prefer older veterans to young talent, the anti-youth movement.
ReplyDeleteI think NBA fans in general are ignorant, on forums they keep using the same media terms that ESPN uses, "Flash in the Pan", "injury prone", "turnover machine", etc. Fans don't know how to watch the game and think for themselves. But you can find this all over the NBA, fans have really short attention spans, they think its a video game.
Lin will play better and he's not injury prone. It's hard on a body to go from 4 minutes per game to 40 minutes per game as a starter. Add the wear and tear of trying to prove himself in practice and doing all the scoring for his D-league team
And there's the source of the injuries, inconsistent playing time and constantly attacking the rim to draw fouls.
If he plays decent minutes regularly at a more controlled pace, he'll be fine. Heres hoping for a blessed 2012-2013.
I'm looking at 33-35 MPG for Lin, Bibby's MPG in his 1st 2 seasons under Woodson as a full starting PG before Jamal Crawford warped his stats (and Bibby fell apart).
DeleteAs far as a more controlled pace, I'm optimistic. My reference game for Lin under Woodson, which won my approval for Woodson coaching Lin, is the 2nd Pacers game in Indianopolis on the back-to-back. Presumably, the Pacers were better prepared for Lin with a rematch and on their homecourt. Woodson's structured system moderated Lin's game while also preserving his strengths. Lin's game that night was balanced and efficient, and the ball was in his hands down the stretch.
Then of course, there's the 76ers game. Woodson trusted Lin to carry the team back against a tough motivated 76ers team in Philly, in the 4Q, while Anthony and Stoudemire were on the court, and after Lin had started the game 1-11.
Some Lin fans have a problem with Woodson, but the evidence on the court from their 7 games together (6-1) says Woodson will coach Lin fine.
I'm just concerned about this signing of Kidd. Lin's combo-guard game would be a perfect complement for a younger Kidd - a better version of Kidd-Barea, 2010-11 play-offs. With the current Kidd, I just don't know how much he has left in the tank.
I'm worried that Kidd doesn't have enough game left to ensure Lin won't be overused.
If the Mav are not interested in Lin, I wonder what other PGs better than Lin are available now.
DeleteJesLee: Rumor is Mavs are talking to Ramon Sessions. There are PGs still available, just none that stand out as difference-makers.
DeleteThe Mavs' passivity, given their glaring team needs, has been the surprise of the off-season so far. I can only guess they're keeping their powder dry for a run at Howard and/or Paul. But Nowitzki ain't getting any younger and they already tanked last season.
I hope the Knicks do not match the offer and that JLin rejects anything NY sends his way. Playing with ISO Melo will NEVER change. New York was great for JLin for what it was..BUT REMEMBER it wasn't the New York organization that gave him a chance, the Knicks mgmt. were going to cut JLin and had ZERO intentions of ever starting him. It was bc of Mike Dantoni...
ReplyDeleteJlin's contract is effectively only $20M for 3 years since 4th year is team option. That's the best offer he got from only 1 interested team. I've been on the numerous message boards of the various teams and from what I can tell, except for New York, all the other teams' fans think JLin was a fluke and overhyped. Looks like other than Morey, the scouts and GMs felt the same way.
ReplyDeletelife is like a box of cho , how much do we know about the future ? It is fair that what Lin did for his past set a tone for his contract $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
DeleteAre you talking about those SAME GM & scouts from "last year" and those from colleges???
DeleteMr Screw up..your name affirms you. Yeah, I think you mean from last yr.
Delete3/20 is Fields's offer from the Raptors. Unbelieveable.
DeleteI had pegged Lin's basketball value as equivalent to a #1 overall draft pick, which has a rookie scale contract of about 4 years, 5 per, with 2 team options. That's a pretty good approximation of what he ended up with, but with his added marketing value and other factors, I had expected Lin would get something better than this offer.
I can say tongue-in-cheek that Lin showed his loyalty to the Knicks with this contract, but realistically, I'm sure his high-powered agent Jim Tanner explored the market. Perhaps the small sample size due to injury, with the failure to make a token appearance against the Heat, did make teams cautious enough to wait for a larger body of work and Lin's next free agency, when he'll be 26-28, before making a superstar investment.
Daryl Morey gifting Kyle Lowry to Toronto took away much of Jeremy's leverage.
DeleteHe gave the Raptors a low-cost Top 10 starting PG in exchange for a single protected 1st rounder and, uh, Gary Forbes. So basically a mid-to-late lottery pick and dead weight. Huh?
If he's going full-on tank mode, which is possible, why woo and offer a contract to Lin at all? It's as if Morey truly believes the Knicks may not match 4/29M.
But hey, whatever...I'll be thrilled to watch Jeremy light up The Garden for years to come. If Melo, Amare and Lin can finally gel next season, the Knicks can absolutely be title contenders. Bring back JR Smith, too, he's streaky but they need a SG who can actually hit some 3s.
I welcome explanations for the Rockets and the Mavericks this off-season. The Rockets seem aimlessly frenetic with their moves while the Mavericks seem oddly passive, mellow even despite glaring team needs.
DeleteIs there some long game both teams are playing that we lowly fans simply can't see yet?
I think the Mavs are conceding a crappy '12-'13...before they go after CP3 and/or Dwight in '13-'14. Dirk won't be happy to lose a year of his waning prime, but there's nothing Dallas can do now that Deron is re-upping with Brooklyn.
DeleteThat makes some sense (and explains why they didn't want to offer J-Lin a 3-4 year contract). As for the Rockets...I have no clue what they're doing.
Harsh tanking 2 years of Nowitzki's dwindling prime. Almost as bad as what the Suns did with the end of Nash's prime, except at least Nowitzki won a championship.
DeleteEric, stop now with the meaningless #1 draft pick comparison.
DeleteLin is a 3rd year player, not an incoming unproven rookie.
K: Lin is a rising 3rd year player, who was often referred to and judged as a virtual rookie in his 2nd year. In his 2 years in the NBA, Lin did well in the D league, then showed dazzling talent and potential in a very promising but ultimately small sample size in year 2 due to a wear-and-tear injury that caused him to miss the post-season.
DeleteIf I were a GM or owner ... I believe the small sample size, especially the missed post-season, due to injury caused teams to be cautious about investing big this time around. When Lin answers the doubts and concerns with an NBA standard sample size, he'll be ready to be paid at his talent level.
I didn't say Lin was a #1 overall. We were trying to get into the heads of GMs and owners and peg their evaluations of Lin. A lowly fan isn't privvy to the inner decision-making of NBA front offices, but a lowly fan does know their assigned values to #1 overall 'can't miss' draft picks. Lin showed he's a 'can't miss' talent. From there, I pegged Lin's basketball value - by analogy - as equivalent or approximated at a #1 overall. Lin presented a similar mix of 'can't miss' promise, doubts, and concerns as a #1 overall. Again, not the same thing - Lin had shown his strengths and weaknesses in actual NBA games and had added values that draft picks do not have. But it was close enough to generalize a baseline, using a known NBA front office value system, to anticipate what Lin's contract offers might be.
I'm still not privvy to the inner decision-making of NBA front offices, but I think my ad hoc analogy worked out okay.
But he's NOT A ROOKIE.
DeleteLin has been battling nonstop for the last two years in order to get to where he is today.
When you erroneously call him a virtual rookie, you willfully ignore the entirety of his hard work that kept him in the NBA and out of the D league.
No real life rookie has endured two full training camps with two different NBA teams, been sent down to the D League 4 times by different teams, has already practiced one and a part seasons against actual NBA players, and has gone through an NBA offseason. By negating these experiences, you give short shrift to the Herculean effort Lin put in to get to this point. And that's why you don't believe in his game.
When Mike Woodson or the press or you give short shrift to Lin's study and self sacrifice by calling him a "virtual rookie", you openly imply that his efforts were totally useless and that his knee is weak because he didn't work hard enough. You and Woodson and the press are all WRONG.
Again K, we were getting into the heads of GMs and owners. I think just as highly of Lin as you do. But neither you or I were in charge of an NBA front office making the decision on a contract offer to Lin.
DeleteWe were trying to figure out how THEY evaluate Lin, not how WE cherish him.
Add: For some Lin fans, it's all about hate and racism. Some of it is, but not all of it. We can at least try to break out of the box and get on top of the rest.
DeleteI'm not interested in what is going on in James Dolan's (formerly) coke addicted head or Mike Woodson's negative press commenting head or Glen Grunwald's minimum wage head.
DeleteYou bet that it's about hate and racism for some Lin fans. Lin's efforts and production have been ignored or devalued just because he's Asian. Lin gets doubted more because he's Asian even though most NBA pgs have not produced as he has.
Just because NBA execs do their asinine thinking doesn't make it right or agreeable. Herd mentality where the consensus of the majority doesn't make the racially based dismissal of Lin's incredible game any less revolting.
This "virtual rookie" garbage is just another ploy to degrade Lin's efforts. He didn't sit on Landry Fields' couch and eat bonbons before his knee gave out. No, Lin was BUSTING HIS BUTT fighting desperately for an NBA position.
If you really are a Lin or even an NBA fan like myself Eric, you ought to stop calling a battle hardened minor league conqueror NBA veteran like Lin a "virtual rookie". Lin put in the work to not have to walk around town wearing "Hello Kitty" bags the way true rookies do, and Lin has produced GREAT in actual NBA games in the 2010-2011 season.
Knicks need a good shooting guard like Ray Allen, Courtney Lee, or OJ Mayo. Get one and they're set.
ReplyDeleteI agree. The Knicks have several needs still outstanding and SG just moved to top of the list.
DeleteHiring Kidd makes the SG issue interesting, though, because if Kidd still has game and can handle mid-high MPG, Lin's SG/PG combo guard game is tailor-made to complement Kidd. That would reduce the need at SG and affect how the Knicks fill out the roster. I just have my doubts Kidd has enough game left or can handle starting MPG anymore.
With free agency and injuries knocking players off the Knick roster like dominoes, Lin might even back up Carmelo Anthony at SF in a 3 guard lineup in certain instances.
DeleteUseful free agent tracker: http://www.nba.com/freeagents/2012/
DeleteKnicks need Melo out the picture that's what, that guy is poison when it comes to "winning". JLin with the rockets all the way!
ReplyDeleteJLin will come back stronger than ever, this man is destined for greatness. If you look at his journey, you know he's special and mentally there is no one in the league that are stronger than him, not even Kobe. If Kobe would have gone through what Jeremy's had gone through, he would not even steps foot in the NBA.
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--rockets-make-offer-to-jeremy-lin.html
ReplyDeleteAdrian Wojnarowski
Houston's four-year offer to Jeremy Lin includes a team option in the fourth year. He would make $5 million in year one, $5.2 million in year two and $9.3 million in each of years three and four.
Once again, Lin will prove the doubters wrong and make his 30 million contract worth it and them some... I think Lin is built for this kind of stuff, proving the haters wrong again, and I'm talking to the City Of Houston... NY loves Lin but proving that he could be a franchise player is another chapter in the Lin Saga...
ReplyDeleteIf Lin had been a #1 overall pick in 2010, he would still be proving his doubters wrong while in his rookie contract.
DeleteUnder this contract, Lin will be an unrestricted free agent at age 27 or 28, depending on whether the Knicks exercise the team option.
Steve Nash left the Mavs as a free agent to join the Suns at age 30.
Exactly, Jeremy is developing MUCH faster than Steve Nash did with Dallas, but not as fast as Rondo, Rubio, or Westbrook because those guys didn't have to graduate from an Ivy League University.
DeleteI don't understand these teams. The list of guards left is very thin. Jeremy Lin is the best option out there. He will make up for his salary and some for the team with his appeal. He made NYK $300 million, right? It's as simple as that. With that kind of profit, what's alittle luxury tax? I am really scratching my head on this. Unless you have a win now attitude where you need immediate mega superstar to help your team, you've got nothing to lose. Even then you can still afford to have Lin on the roster. Think China! Upside gallore. Make money, have an experienced veteran, have an up and coming guard (LIn) adding to the depth, and make money! As a GM, you've got all the data in front of you. Heck, even the general fan can spout out the data and benefits of having Lin. Don't even mention the injury factor. It didn't stop NYK from signing Baron Davis, or any other player. If I was a GM I'd snatch Jeremy up like a thief. For all of the newbie GM's, this is the easiest decision you'll ever make. Go for it!
ReplyDeleteI really did think Dallas was in the hunt since they where so quite. I'm super perplexed by there moves, I guess they planned on blowing it up and rebuid next year. Well the good thing is JLin will be starting and the Knicks will be in the playoffs so he's going to get pleanty of experience. Everyone said it would take Steve Nash to bring that team together I really want to see JLin do it, I think he can.
DeleteAnd really his contract isnt going to be to shabby.. I mean He's a instant multi-millionare playing the game he loves. I mean sleeping on your buddies coach to 20 million in the bank!
DeletePut the endorsements on top of that $20 million and Lin might end up becoming the richest player in the entire NBA.
DeleteI thought the Raptors would make a run at Lin. The Nets, if they had failed with Williams. As for other teams we've discussed, such as the Bobcats, Warriors, and Mavericks, I can only assume Lin's people, led by Jim Tanner, made their rounds. And the best deal came from the Rockets, who made an offer that would shock us if the Knicks don't match.
DeleteWhy did the Rockets even bother making the offer? It's like they tried to help the Knicks. Why 9.3 mil and not 10 mil? And a team option?
Interesting thing about Kidd is that he has the elder-statesman stature/respect/cachet/juice of Nash to talk down to Anthony and Stoudemire, but Nash coming off last season still has some game left. Who knows how much game Kidd has left; he didn't show much last season. Broadly speaking, Lin has game at PG but not yet the stature (like Rondo, Lin will get it) and Kidd has stature at PG but no longer the game. I wonder how that will work out as far as managing their teammates?
When I saw that Lin was not a Plan A for any team as soon as free agency period hit and Dragic got $30M for 4 years from Phoenix, I had a feeling Lin was not as highly valued by the NBA GMs and that he was going to get a much more modest contract. 3 years $20M really surprised me though as being too low for a 23 year old starting PG. Hopefully he uses this as motivation to get better and he is able to earn a max contract in 4 years.
DeleteI suspect that morey and colangelo must have struck a deal. imo the offer from houston was secondarily an attempt at getting lin and partially a favor to yao. but this was primarily a way to unload lowry while still saving face. lowry was enough to stop a bidding war for lin.
Deletefrom what i've read on another forum another secondary goal is probably to force the knicks to go over the hard salary cap and get penalized via the luxury tax. with the new cba rules I think the luxury tax money gets spread out to the teams under the cap.
in retrospect lin probably could have waited a few more days to see if a bidding war would start.
I think Dallas Mavericks didn't go after Lin because:
Delete1. Lin is a Restricted Free Agent. The odds of signing another team's Restricted Free Agent is rather slim. Because their team has the power to match the offer.
So unless someone breaks the bank for Jeremy Lin, it's a waste of time to even try. Grunwald has promised to match any offer, and every NBA GM believes him.
2. They are saving up to make a push for Dwight Howard or Chris Paul in 2013.
Yeah, every team we speculated might be interested in Lin might actually have been interested in him, just not at the price necessary to outbid the Knicks. Not at this point of Lin's career.
DeleteTanking a 2nd straight year of Nowitzki's dwindling prime is tough.
I'm sorry if people were offended or hurt by my post that indicated Lin is not as highly desired as you guys might think. I'm as big a Lin fan as anybody here. But the fact of the matter is Lin did in fact not get any other contract offers other than the one from Houston. Whether this was a fair deal or not that's a separate matter. But needless to say, the common assumption and expectation that GMs are going to be all over Lin clearly did not materialize. The contract he got is nothing to sneeze at but I think to a certain extent, he's got to be feeling like he is still being doubted and he still needs to prove himself yet once again.
ReplyDeleteI guess its not a total shock..seems like JLin has been dealing what this kind of stuff his entire basketball life. I dont think 3 years 20 million is to low, I mean thats a huge raise ~700k to 20 mill over 3 years. Look, I see it as a positive, he's at max for the next 2 years and then up to about 10 mill/year. By the time this contract ends well see then he's still only going to be 27!
DeleteWho said we were offended by your post, Mr. Screwup?
DeleteBefore Lin even finished the NBA season, most of us here were commenting about how Lin was going to be undervalued and.underpaid by GMs that say that "he's a D league player". So none of us are surprised that teams do not understand Lin's true value on and off the court.
We fully expect the haters to spew garbage AFTER Lin signs his contract and produces. Every time Lin makes a turnover, lots of fans are going to say that he's not worth the contract he signed. A lot of NBA scouts feel the same way even after Lin dominated the games they were watching.
Most of us on this board are true diehard NBA fans who don't need a biased media to figure out for us who can play and who can't. That's why we can admire Lin for what he really is: the BEST young pg in the NBA today.
No offense, not to worry.
DeletePerhaps there are other offers which are not as good as the Rocket's and thus, not disclosed.
Maybe we expect too much due to Field's $20mio/3. If we compare this offer to the salaries of other top young PGs, it's more or less reasonable.
#5 Kyrie Irving 2012-2013 $5.5 /2013-2014 $5.9 (TO)
#6 Steven Curry 2012-2013 $4 /2013-2014 $5.3 (QO)
#11 Ty Lawson 2012-2013 $2.5 /2013-2014 $3.6 (QO)
#12 Kyle Lowry 2012-2013 $5.7 /2013-2014 $6.2
#13 Brandon Jennings 2012-2013 $3.2 /2013-2014 $4.3 (QO)
The only clause I don't appreciate is Team Option in the 4th year.
Doubters will doubt, haters will hate. For some reason Rockets fans hate Lin, calling him Yao the second...As if the latter is actually anything like the former. He isn't selfish nor a cancer like Lowry or Melo, he lifts and empowers those around him, given the chance. With Kidd he's virtually guaranteed to stay with Knicks, no doubt there'll be some interesting possibilities with the two, heck Lin might even defer starting out of respect for Kidd, that's the kind of man he is.
ReplyDeleteBeing called Yao the Second is a great honor in a backhanded type of way.
DeleteYao was a #1 overall pick and an All Star center before he retired. He gave Houston his all and retired as one of Houston's great centers. It would be an honor for Lin to be compared to his NBA mentor, Yao.
I was predicting inconsistent play for Steve Nash if he started over Lin and thus was going to get hammered by Lin in practice. In Kidd's case, Kidd no longer produces enough for Lin to punk down his game if Kidd is named the starter.
Are they referring to a heightened injury risk for Lin?
DeleteOr do Rockets fans want a team centerpiece whose main accomplishments will be on the court winning games, and not in the Asian commercial market?