Friday, June 22, 2012

Jeremy Retains Early Bird Rights

It is being reported by multiple sources that the arbitrator in this case has sided with the "waived" players.

This is huge news in that it means NY can sign both JLin and Steve Novak for a starting salary up to around $5 million each and still have their mid-level exception to spend on a difference making veteran.


  1. and now the league will we'll see how much the Lin's new management comes into play.

  2. I don't think Lin's lawyers have any say in this. The only parties involved are the NBA Player's Union and the NBA league (Team Owners). Everyone else is a neutral party.

  3. The players and owners aren't going to go in blind and ignorant to the rules. There's a reason why agents were still talking to the players during the lockout and the owners had their own people. The agents and lawyers are always part of the party, whether directly or indirectly.

  4. Now let's see if anybody throws a backloaded contract at Lin.

    Jeremy Lin is the best 2012 free agent value for the money in the entire NBA, on and off the court.

  5. Bad news if it is true! This mean JLin won't win a championship for another few years when the Knicks get rid of Carmelo.

  6. Yeah, if this were any other team, this would be great news, because they can build an entire team around Jeremy Lin. Now the Knicks GM needs to build a team around Carmelo, which is not possible.

    This ruling gives the Knicks some wiggle room, but they have only $5 mill to sign a free agent ... but can 5 mill buy any real talent ??

  7. With this news, I'd like to see Jeremy sign a lucrative one-year deal OR a two-year deal with a player option on the 2nd year.

    He's got to have an "escape clause" while maintaining some leverage on Woodson and Dolan. "Misuse or bench me (for, say, Nash) and I'm outta here next year."

    Now, I don't think Nash is likely with Woodson (not D'Antoni) in charge. Ray Allen, however, is at a stage of his career where a lot of people don't think he can be a starting SG anymore, even when healthy. I think he'd take MLE money if the Knicks named him their starter (at least until Shumpert gets back).

    A sniper SG like Allen could make them title contenders. They desperately need to space that floor for Lin and Melo alike. Also, J-Lin's assist total would go up by 2 or 3 with Allen on the floor.

  8. I guarantee JLin will not win NBA Championship by staying with Knicks, until Knicks can unload both Stat and Melo and then rebuild from there; starting blocks have been laid wrong, so they are stuck with several years of losing early in playoffs. From what I have seen, Knicks is years behind OKC and Heat in team work and talent level. Also, you cannot win Championship without going through many years of progression in playoffs. JLin will have to choose between money (more money from sponsors due to high media coverage if he stays in NY) and higher achievements in basketball but less media coverage. All I am hoping to see is JLin make more improvements to his game quickly, so he can be ready to go to another team and make a run for the title within 5 years.

    1. Phil Jackson doesn't think NY will win one either. From day one, I had a feeling Phil wouldn't be coming to the Knicks. His health is just too valuable to waste his time on a team with bad chemistry. Even though it is a perfect scenario for him to end up in a place where he started and come full circle to reconnect the dots in his life. It is so tempting, yet he still didn't take it. That says alot about what he thinks about the Knicks players and upper management. He conquered other major cities like Chicago and Los Angeles. New York is the mecca of them all and he still couldn't pull the trigger. I do have a feeling a trade is in order to lure Phil to come to New York. NOt all is dead. If that's the case, Lin staying around for another two years might not be a bad situation.

    2. On a side note. F'in Miami! Pat Riley is sheer genius. He should run for president.

    3. Well, Riley IS the president of the Heat already.

      Right now, Riley makes more being the president of the Heat than he would being the president of America!

  9. I completely disagree that Allen of Celtics can make Knicks title contenders. He was a non-factor in playoffs. Now, if Keven Durant was switched with Melo, then I would say Knicks might be able to make it to Finals and still lose to Miami. :)

    1. FYI: Allen was playing with a hurt ankle. End of story.

      Even at his age with a compressed schedule, Ray was still money from 3 during this past regular season (45% on 5 attempts per game!!).

      The Knicks don't have a single sniper in their starting lineup, which is a major, major weakness. Novak plays the 3/4, so he can't get many minutes with Jeremy if Amare and Melo are healthy. The Knicks and Lin need a SG who can actually SHOOT.

    2. Ray Allen was playing with an injured ankle during the playoffs. End of story.

      Even at his age with a compressed schedule, Allen shot an incredible 45% from the arc (5 attempts per game).

      It's pretty simple -- the Knicks need a shooting guard who can actually SHOOT. JR Smith is way too streaky, and even at his best, he's no Ray Allen. Novak shoots like Ray, but he's a backup 3/4 who won't see much time with J-Lin if Amare and Melo are healthy.

      A healthy Ray Allen out on the perimeter would be an ENORMOUS help to the Knicks And Lin. And Melo.

    3. Read my post. I never said Ray Allen was not a good player, although I think he's in a decline. I said "I completely disagree that Allen of Celtics can make Knicks title contender." No way, Jose. This kind of post make me laugh. There are only several players in NBA whose joining Knicks would make Knicks a title contender, meaning Knicks would get into Finals, and they are: LeBron and Durant. That's it. Aside from these two players, I do not believe any ONE player joining Knicks (I realize this is not possible) would make Knicks a title contender. Like I said, I would not be surprised if Knicks don't even make playoffs this year.

    4. I think OKC and Miami will be at it again for next several years. If I were OKC GM, I would keep Ibaka over Harden and consider trading Russell or Harden or both, to free up more complementary players for Durant. If (a big IF) Ibaka improves his offensive repertoire, he can be a superstar. I was so, so impressed by LeBron's ability to drive and pass and get easy shots for his teammates. Anyone would love to play with LeBron because he makes your job a lot easier. That's a true superstar there. Are you listening Melo? No way you going to lead Knicks to Finals by shooting away; you have to try to become a complete player and play off other players -- I just don't see that with Stat and Melo.

    5. By the way, Spoelsta, supposedly a not good coach as implied by media, sure out-coached OKC coach. I was not impressed by OKC coach just letting his players do the same stuff. If I were their coach, I would have sat them down and told them "Listen, if we want to win, we have to get the ball to Duran earlier and let him shoot or make good passes. We can't just pass ball to Durant with 5 seconds left and expect him to make all shots."

    6. Championship contender? No, not with the Heat in the way. But I'll be surprised if the Knicks don't make the play-offs. I expect they'll make it as a 2-4 seed and make it to at least the 2nd round. The team went 18-6 under Woodson and, in the East, only the Heat were obviously better than the Knicks. Former top contenders Celtics and Magic are dismantling. The Bulls future is uncertain. The Hawks have peaked. The Pacers and 76ers are up-and-coming teams, but I don't think either team is better than the Knicks.

  10. Well at least lin will probably land a max contract. I don't think the knicks can afford Allen. They need a point who can shoot and somebody to back up chandler.

    lin needs to focus his training on increasing his durability and bringing out linsanity once in a while to keep people interested. he'll be playing melo ball for at least the next 2 years so should apply himself more on off court activities.

  11. It's too early for Jeremy to think of championships, but have that in mind is a good thing to motivate. But I think JLin has a lot more to prove, but only if he is given the opportunity. So I am not so sure where he'll stand for the next season.

  12. This sucks. Now the Knicks have a higher chance of keeping Lin.

    The Knicks are dysfunctional with Melo and Stat. Plus Lin being a team player won't shoot as much with these ball hogs who don't play defense.

  13. No Jeremy. Please stay away from Melonoma; it will slowly kill you from the inside out.

  14. Setting aside money, the Knicks are a good basketball situation for Lin's development in large part because of the "clumsy" fit spotlighted by Phil Jackson.

    Lin aspires to be an NBA PG and his fans believe he can be a Nash-type PG, or a gifted scorer who is a passer and floor general first. If Lin truly has the potential to become a Nash-type PG, then there is no better situation for Lin to develop into that kind of PG than on a "clumsy" team that has a greater need for the PG to manage the offense. Anthony by his own admission is not a point forward like Lebron James and needs his PG to set him up. Pick-and-roll scorers Stoudamire and Chandler depend on the PG even more than Anthony to create their scores. Novak, Fields and the rest of team - assuming JR Smith is gone - are system scorers. In short, Lin wants to become a PG and the Knicks badly need a PG.

    PGs who want to lead the NBA in assists traditionally pair up with scorers who reliably can convert their passes into assists. Lin's scorer is Anthony. Anthony shoots a lot, but so do other top scorers. While he can be more efficient, Anthony benefits Lin by being a versatile scorer who can match Lin's range as a playmaker. (For a good analysis of Anthony and Lin's promising potential as a passer-scorer pairing, read Ruruland's comments at and

    Even if Anthony shoots 20 FGA/game next season, which is above his career average, that still leaves 60+ shots for the rest of the team. For Lin fans who prefer to watch him shoot rather than pass, the Knicks' shortage of creative scorers guarantees Lin will get his shots next season.

    Some Lin fans claim Woodson won't allow Lin to shoot, which is silly. While it's true that Lin's FGAs were exceptionally high under D'Antoni, it's false that Lin's FGAs were exceptionally low under Woodson. Lin's FGA/36m in the 7 games under Woodson was 11.6. Compare 11.6 to the career FGA/36m of these NBA PGs: Rose 17.1, Westbrook 16.6, Deron Williams 13.9, Paul 13.7, Billups 12.5, Dragic 12.3, Nash 12.3, Kidd 11.3, Rondo 10.3. In addition, Lin's FTA/36m in those 7 games was a high 6.6. If we factor in his free throws, Lin's shots under Woodson were in the Billups/Dragic/Nash (career FTA/36m 5.5/3.8/3.2 respectively) range. Pretty reasonable as is.

    I believe it's fair to use Lin's numbers under Woodson as the floor to predict his numbers as a Knick next season. A bump up from 11.6 to 13-14 FGA/36m, or the Williams/Paul range, is a reasonable expectation - again, given the shortage of creative scorers on the Knicks.

    As far as championship potential, are the Knicks going to beat the Heat next season? No. But the Knicks have enough to be the 2nd seed in the East and reach the conference finals. In other words, Lin will gain more play-off experience with the Knicks than he would on a bad team that made him their centerpiece now.

    In the long run, Lin's Hall of Fame case may well be made with another team, just as Nash left the Mavs to become a Hall of Famer with the Suns, but for the next 1-2 seasons, there is no better situation for Lin to develop as a PG than with the Knicks.

    1. Your analysis is very encouraging/exciting to Lin's fans!

      But I don't think we will ever forget what Woodson has said: "rookies were to sit, listen and learn", "Jeremy's a big part of our team, and will he start? Only time will tell".

      What if Woodson benches him hence reduces his minutes on the court, then your estimates on Lin's numbers next season will not come true. I hope I worry too much.

    2. You're worrying too much with the roster as presently constituted. The Knicks are too thin at guard to shrink Lin's role.

      But if the Knicks are able to take advantage of Lin's Bird rights, assuming they're upheld on appeal (I think they will be upheld: that Bird rights are retained by the player in a trade implies they're vested in the player and not the team, so the player should retain the right if waived, too.) by adding an established PG, then Lin will have competition.

      Worst case is that Lin would be the 3rd guard. It would be tough to start Lin over Nash, maybe Andre Miller, just because of their status. Beyond that, I trust Lin would beat out (diminished) Kidd, Sessions, Felton level PGs. Dragic and Lin would be an interesting contest.

      If the Knicks use the MLE to sign a quality PG, it becomes doubtful that they'd sign a quality SG, so another possibility is Lin and a quality free-agent PG would play together.

    3. Eric, Lin would shock you by beating out both Steve Nash and Andre Miller and especially Dragic.

      I'm not convinced ANY free agent pg could force Lin to the bench, and that includes Deron Williams with his selfish play and lackadaisacal defense. At worst, the Knicks would deploy a 2 pg lineup in which Lin remained a starter.

      If anybody makes the mistake of sitting Lin, they'll watch Lin destroy the starters in practice until they no longer can function in games (which is what happened this year in NY and likely Golden State too). Then Lin would end uo starting anyway.

    4. I doubt Lin would be given the opportunity to beat out Nash for the starting job unless Nash conceded it to him, no matter how well Lin played in practice, due to Nash's status, not his ability compared to Lin. It's like when Parker objected to Kidd joining the Spurs because he understood the job would automatically go to Kidd, no matter what Parker did. Miller also has status on his side, but he came off the bench last season for the Nuggets, so that just may be where he is now with his career. On the other hand, Miller and Anthony have played well together, so Anthony may lobby for Miller to start.

      Dragic and Lin are similar enough where the Knicks probably won't go after Dragic. If Dragic does join the Knicks, I would like to see the two of them play together.

    5. Lin can start as SG with no problem, though it would be better for the Knicks to get a true SG to let Lin run the show from PG.

      I could easily see Steve Nash struggling in Woodson's iso system since Nash needs the ball in his hands effective. I could also see Andre Miller in Woodson's doghouse because he doesn't shoot well enough from outside.

      Marquette's Jae Crowder is likely to go undrafted. Yet he is probably the most NBA ready player in the entire 2012 draft. I'd sign him to a Jeremy Lin style minimum contract and let him shoot that sweet perimeter jumper from the swing positions while using that bulky but quick body of his to guard opposing 2s and 3s. I actually think Jae Crowder would have more of an NBA impact as a SG than Landry Fields would (a natural SF playing out of position due to Anthony in the SF spot).

    6. Lin would be an effective SG. He's tailor-made for playing with (younger) Jason Kidd. That said, I don't want to overstate the likelihood that the Knicks will sign a PG. While the Knicks need a back-up PG, the more-urgent need is SG. Even with Lin's Bird rights, the Knicks likely will be able to sign only one quality free agent. With Shumpert's return an unknown, I expect the Knicks will tilt toward a SG or try to cover both needs with a combo guard. No combo guard on the FA market is a threat to Lin at PG.

      If Nash wants to be a Knick, though, it'd be awfully tough to reject him.

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  16. Terrible teams with lots of cancer in a huge media spotlight like NY are not good places for young players to develop.

    While Lin hasn't been thrown under the bus yet, everything Woodson has said and done, besides his backpedaling, has shown that he would love to be able to throw Lin under the bus and forget all about Lin. It's just.... he can't. Not with that clumsy overpaid/underperforming roster, and not with the hundreds of millions of dollars Lin exposure can make for the Knicks organization.

    1. As long as the team wins, no one will be thrown under the bus. The Knicks, if constituted as expected, will win in the regular season. Post-season? We'll see.

    2. Heh.

      In the NBA, even champions get thrown under the bus!

      Enjoy the game. Collect the paychecks. EVERYBODY in the NBA is a "champion".

    3. Khuang, "enjoy the game, collect the paycheck" ?

      That's not how champions think !!! That is for players who says "Yeah! made it to NBA, now just cruise and enjoy my life and ignore my "bust" label".

    4. If the Knicks lose and a player is thrown under the bus by the scapegoat-hunting media, Anthony and Stoudamire, not Lin, will be the likeliest lightning rods.

    5. So feltball, what are champions to do?

      "I hate the game"
      "I don't want my NBA millions".

      NBA championship teams usually are among the highest paid teams in pro basketball.

      This is not the YMCA where guys play for free. This is the NBA where GREED IS GOOD. In pro basketball, greed makes champions.

    6. Champions are greedy for Trophies not money. After the money issue is settle, champions want trophies and regcognitions.

      Not everybody in the NBA is a champion. Many are label as "Busts". Only a handfuls are recognized as Champion.

      I have a hunch that Jeremy Lin wants to be a champion and will not settle for collecting paychecks.

      He would put up with the bad situations for the first few years to learn and develop and after that will be more agressive with management to get him a championship team.

    7. That's media talk.

      Darko Milicic, Isaiah Rider, and Brian Scalabrine all "played" on championship teams. According to your logic, those guys would not be "busts". YEAH RIGHT.

      The media writes insane stories and makes it seem like everybody who can't win a championship is a failure. Fortunately, real basketball fans like me know better than to believe their uninformed garbage.

      Jeremy Lin should go where the money and opportunities are best. If he doesn't win a NBA championship, I'm not going to call him a "bust".

  17. "as long as the team wins."

    That just adds to my point. Woodson, a lot he has done and said has shown that he would love to dump Lin.

    But he can't.

    Not ---

    as long as the team wins

    as long as he has that clumsy overpaid/underperforming cancerous team

    as long as the Knicks can make hundreds of millions of dollars by playing Lin

    1. Even when they were winning and doing well, I'm pretty sure you remember how he talked about Lin when he first came in.

      Or even right after the season when he just could not concede the starting spot to Lin. Insulting to even play with the idea of Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, or Imam Shumpert getting minutes over Lin.

    2. At the point Woodson took over for D'Antoni, the Knicks had lost 6 in a row and had alternated Ws and Ls before that. Woodson didn't replace Lin as a starter then, and Davis, Bibby and Shumpert were all active.

    3. In the old days, coaches hated their players and players hated their coaches. And they still made things work because basketball is a meritocracy where the best players like Lin are the best players like Lin.

      When Melo and Mire are unable to get the job done offensively, the ball goes to Lin who creates for everybody else. On defense, Lin screams at Melo and Mire if they're getting burned. That is the game plan, no matter who's coaching.

      Basketball is not a complex sport, though many coaches pretend that it is.

    4. Coaches and players aren't paid millions of dollars to be buddies. Phil Jackson is as famous for his public dislike of Kobe Bryant as he is for his reverence of Michael Jordan. Sloan apparently wasn't a fan of Deron Williams. Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard don't get along.

      I think Lin fans who hate on Woodson have blown his comments and what they may imply out of porportion.

      If Lin was ever going to be demoted by Woodson out of personal dislike, it would have happened when Woodson replaced D'Antoni. When Woodson relied on Lin to come back against the 76ers, when Anthony and Stoudamire were also on the court and Stoudamire was having a good game, that showed Woodson understands what he has in Lin.

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    6. Woodson learned a HARD lesson:

      Play the guys who can play.

    7. Wooden didn't replace Lin as a starter then because he couldn't.

      In the 1st game after he took over, Lin played 23 minutes and Davis 18 minutes. The New York Times immediately reported: "Woody’s inclination would not be to play him," said a person who has worked with Woodson. Other media also reported that Lin would have a significantly reduced role in New York's game plan under Woodson's charge.

      But much to Woodson's disappointment, Davis tweaked his right hamstring after playing 7 minutes in the 2nd game. Woodson had no choice but to continue to use Lin. But Lin's playing time had been reduced to 28 min under Wooden. during Linsanity his min was 38.8. After Melo returned, his min in 10 games was 34.1 which is normal for a starting PG.

      If Lin stays in the Knicks, I hope Woodson will let him play at least 33 min to be productive enough(average min of starting PG - Paul, Rose, D Williams, etc. is 35~36).

    8. The first game Woodson took over for D'Antoni, the Knicks blew out the Blazers by 40 points.

      Lin's MPG in the 7 games he played for Woodson last season was skewed by multiple blow-outs, plus Lin's injury at the end. In the 2 closest games of the 7, @Ind and @Phi, Lin played 33 and 36 mins. The pressure was on Woodson to reduce Lin's MPG from his Secretariat days under D'Antoni. Lin's MPG had gone down under D'Antoni, too, before he quit. The MPG for all the starters were down during the same stretch of 7 games under Woodson.

      I used /per36m rather than /per-game due to the shortcomings of the small sample size. The per-game stats should even out over a full season. The way Woodson used Lin within Lin's abbreviated time on the court, though, is more reliable for judging how Woodson will use Lin. Still not great, but it's what we have to work with.

      We'll find out next season how Woodson regulates Lin's MPG. Given the wear-and-tear nature of Lin's knee injury, I expect Woodson will try to be more conservative.

    9. Every example you used of coaches not needing to have some kind of good relationship with his players just proves that you need some kind of good or at least a working relationship.

      Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams ? Sloan and Williams are both gone

      Svg plus Dwight? Stan is gone, Dwight is being a cancer

      Phil and Kobe? Got bounced around and butt heads then Phil said eff u to Kobe and the lakers until their attitudes changed.

      Now lets look at the coach relationships of the recent champions. Popovich. Carlisle, rivers, spoelstra, Jackson, they all have good if not at least working relationships with their players. The same goes for many, I'd say most playoff teams.

    10. Woodson and Lin are fine.

    11. They're fine because of the kind of person Lin is (at least publicly), but the way Woodson has dogged Lin all this time is out of line.

      Not only that, but let's think about all the cancers NOT LIN that Woodson is going to have to deal with out there. That includes Star player cancer(s) that do not have the leadership, locker room presence, work ethic, etc etc etc

      The chemistry in NY is not there. Claim it is all you want. Maybe it will be there somewhere down the line, but it was very apparent it was not this season.

      Are you trolling up softballs on purpose?

    12. In the 7 games Lin played for Woodson, the PG and coach did okay by each other. What more did you expect or want Woodson to do for Lin?

      For JesLee, here is a side-by-side of Anthony's minutes / Lin's minutes in the 7 games Lin played for Woodson.

      W 121-79 v Por: 24:37 / 22:51
      W 115-110v Ind: 22:43 / 25:41
      W 102-88 @ Ind: 29:30 / 33:28
      W 106-87 v Tor: 31:14 / 28:47
      W 82-79 @ Phi: 33:42 / 35:53
      L 79-96 @ Tor: 30:11 / 25:37
      W 101-79 @ Det: 29:22 / 23:52 (Lin hurt)

      Lin played more minutes than Anthony in 3 of the games and on a quick add, Anthony and Lin's minutes played under Woodson were about even until the Detroit game, when Lin was taken out due to his knee.

    13. There is no power struggle because the Knicks are already Lin's team.

      Carmelo Anthony is a great scorer who ironically created only for Lin. Every other Knick relies on Lin on both ends of the court.

      This is absolutely no different from when Isiah Thomas and Adrian Dantley played together on the Pistons. Isiah set everybody up, Dantley scored, but it was still Isiah's team.

    14. eric,
      Who played more minutes under Woodson, Melo or Lin, is not my main concern because they two played different positions. It's about the preference of Woodson to use traditional and/or vet PG who in his mind could better service the star player in the team. When his coach has this kind of mindset, Lin will always be at the mercy of circumstances, e.g. vet. PG not being healthy or playing so disappointingly, then Lin is granted substantial playing time, say around 33 min which is somehow normal min for a starting PG in other teams.

      Take D Williams for an example. In his rookie year, he played 28.8 min, with 10.8 pts and 4.5 ast. In the following 7 years, he played 36.3 to 38 min, with 16.3 to 21 pts.

      Lin needs to play enough min to effectively develop his games and build up good stat so that coaches, team GMs, media, etc. can find no reason/excuse to doubt him again and again.

    15. (I can't find my posted reply and re-post it)

      eric, it's not my main concern whether Melo played more min than Lin under Woodson because they two play different positions.

      It's about Woodson's preference for traditional and/or vet PG who he considers can better service the star player in the team. When the coach has this kind of mindset, Lin would always be at the mercy of circumstances, i.e. in case vet PG is unhealthy or plays so disappointingly, Lin is then granted substantial playing time, say around 33 min which actually is normal min for a starting PG in other teams.

      Take D williams for an example. In his rookie year, he played 28.8 min, with 10.8 pts & 4.5 ast. In the following 7 years, he played 36.3 to 38 min with 16.2 to 21 pts.

      Lin needs to play enough min to effectively develop his games and build up good stats so that coaches, team GMs, media, etc. cannot find reasons/excuses to doubt him again & again. After all, a player's credential bases very much on his stats. Do you think those GMs who try to sign D Willaim would give a damn if he's a selfish player.

    16. 33 MPG is a good goal for a whole season, but it's hard to knock Woodson for playing Lin 28 MPG over 7 games that were blow-outs. Coaches are supposed to rest their stars once games are out of reach.

      Anthony and Lin play different positions, but they're also the team's top playmakers. Using Anthony as a standard to judge Lin's minutes is a way to compensate for the sample size, like using /per36m rather than /per-game for the FGAs. Anthony is the (anointed) most important Knick whom Woodson is said to gameplan around. We can trust Woodson had Anthony on the court for as many minutes as his top players were needed.

      I expect Woodson will give Lin as many MPG as he normally gives his starting PGs. However, Lin's return from injury may compel the Knicks to be careful with Lin's MPG, although Woodson's conservative style should be easier on Lin's body.

      Would Woodson have promoted Davis if Davis had been physically able to take the load? I don't know. I do know that Woodson kept Lin as his 1st-string PG and trusted him with the game on the line.

      What will happen to Lin if, armed with Lin's Bird rights, the Knicks sign an Andre Miller or Steve Nash, or even a Dragic, Felton, Sessions, Hinrich, or Fisher? I believe Nash, maybe Miller, would be given deference as the starter, which means Lin at either SG or 3rd guard. However, Nash and Miller's ages raise Davis-like durability concerns. As a 3rd guard behind Nash, maybe Miller, Lin would still play starter's minutes. Lin should beat out the rest, though Dragic v Lin as similar up-and-coming guards would be interesting.

      The Knicks need an SG more than a PG. If they spend their money on an SG and go cheap on a back-up PG, Lin's role will be secure.

      Lin's usage percentage and FGAs did drop under Woodson in the 7 games, but they were still respectable. I expect both will increase next season as Lin improves and team need demands it. The Knicks "clumsy" team make-up ensures Lin will be called on to make plays. Given the opportunity, talent rises to the top and Lin will have the opportunity.

      As far as your traditional (or conventional) PG concern, I agree that's what Woodson wants, but I think that's good for Lin's development at this point of his career. I'm confident Lin has the makings of a fully capable PG. He just needs to develop. Lin is already one of the best PGs in transition and can shred average NBA defenses. But we saw him struggle running the point in the half-court against good defenses. Woodson would admonish Lin whenever, under pressure, he made a mistake in the half-court. That's a good thing.

      Finally, will playing for Woodson hurt Lin's free agency in 1-2 years? I believe Lin's value will rise because Woodson's demands will compel Lin to work on his current relative weaknesses. Lin's defense, especially his man-to-man defense, will improve. Lin's traditional/conventional PG game will improve. At the same time, the "clumsy" make-up of the Knicks will ensure Lin will be able to remind the NBA of his scoring and playmaking strengths. The Knicks should make the play-offs as a 2-4 seed, which means Lin will get to prove himself in the post-season.

      Lin is a natural leader and that will come out as he matures as a young veteran.

      By the time Lin is up for his superstar payday, NBA organizations should be very confident about Lin's readiness to be the centerpiece of a team.

      With Lin's talent, work ethic, smarts, character, toughness and clutchness, and leadership, I believe the biggest threat to his NBA career is his health - those knees. As much as I enjoyed and want more Linsanity as a fan, I don't know that Lin can physically sustain his preferred style in the NBA. As Lin matures as a veteran, I would rather he pick his spots and moderate his style to prolong his career. Based on the 7 games he played for Woodson, I expect Woodson will help Lin made that adjustment.

  18. Why are we all arguing over a Knick future that is a backloaded contract from not happening???

    1. The issue has been whether signing with the Knicks, which means playing with Anthony and for Woodson, would be good for Lin's development.

      Comments upthread and other threads claim the Knicks would be bad for Lin. I disagree with them. I contend that for the next 1-2 years (perhaps with a player option for the 2nd year), which is also the likeliest span of a Knicks-Lin contract, the Knicks would be a good situation for Lin to develop as an NBA PG.

      On the issue of another team challenging the Knicks' poor salary cap situation by offering Lin a backloaded contract beyond the Gilbert Arenas provision ... yeah, it could happen. (For a good lay analysis of Lin's contract possibilities, I like If Lin leaves the Knicks, I prefer the Brooklyn Nets for him, but until the FA period begins, the Knicks are the lead candidate to sign Lin so that's where the fan discussion of Lin's future goes.

      From other teams' perspective, the risks of making a long, superstar-expensive commitment to Lin right now are his knee problems, the small sample size due to his knee problems, wariness of the D'Antoni boost for PGs, Lin's unimpressive showings against elite PGs, and the over-all drop-off after Linsanity. On the question of whether Lin can lead a championship contender, Lin hasn't played in a playoff game since HS. In other words, signing Lin now to a big long contract assumes big risks, whereas conceding Lin to the Knicks for 1-2 seasons would answer those questions. In 1-2 years, an established Lin would be available again as a UFA at the still-young age of 25-26.

      What if a team tried to finesse the situation by offering a backloaded contract more than the Knicks might offer but less than what Lin may be worth after 1-2 seasons starring for the Knicks? Lin would have to concede his potential big payday as an established star in 1-2 years and the Knicks may decide to match and lock up Lin long-term for a lower-than-expected price. Of course, the same doubts that teams have about Lin now may compel Lin to be cautious enough about his future to sign for less money but longer security now and the Knicks to let him go.

      On the other hand, being an upstart entrepeneur in an established field demands gambling with uncommon risks. Waiting 1-2 years for Lin to address the doubts about him invites more-attractive teams to come on with better offers at that time. For a small-market or new team, it may be now or never to claim Lin with a long superstar contract.

    2. In short, not many NBA teams are as smart as we are (at least as far as Jeremy Lin only is concerned).

      If Lin merely maintains the pace he did this year, he'd be worthy of a 5 figure contract.

      I'm a businessman, so I look at the true total cost of signing Jeremy Lin. With all the fans that he attracts and marketing revenue he provides, he could be signed at a max contract for four years and STILL he'd be a financial bargain.

      For example, I am from Phoenix where losing Steve Nash is a possibility and there isn't a single guard on the roster who can start in the NBA. The Suns are whining about decreased attendance and poor play. But they won't sign the NBA's best bargain in Lin, which is is on and off the court. That's why the Suns are too inept to be contenders.

    3. Edit: not 5 figure contract, 7 figure contract.

    4. Edit: $10+ million, not 7 figures.

      I'm really bad at math.

    5. Yep, it's 8 figure contracts nowadays.

      If I was a team owner or GM, Lin's knees and inability to return for Game 5 in the Miami series would make me more cautious than any other doubt. Part of why I wanted him to return after Davis was lost, even for only a token appearance, was so Lin would show the physical resilience that's expected of team leaders who must endure more physically than role players.

      Part of why I want Lin to practice with Team USA, even if he's not under contract yet, is to show that his knee is healthy, like how Dwyane Wade used the 2008 Olympics to showcase his recovery.

      Lin has proven he's at least an above-average NBA PG talent-wise and shown signs of a higher ceiling. But Lin has not proven yet he can bear the physical burden of starting full seasons as an NBA PG, especially with his aggressive style of play. Lin's not marketable if he's being paid to wear a suit at the end of the bench.

    6. can you be a business man when youre bad At math? Yeah, any figure will be a bargain for the ROI from Lin. However, we havent considered the flip side, and that is the extra pressure and scrutiny he ll receive from the unintended consequence of a big contract.

    7. To Eric, lin really didnt need to prove his resiliency to the league or media. He had to take care of his own business above everyone else's interests first. And the money from a contract is chump change compared to the endorsements he kk be getting. Is it worry it to be injury riddled fir your whole career and be on the bench like you said?

    8. If Lin couldn't handle the scrutiny and pressure of having a big contract, he'd have been run out of organized basketball before ever making it to the NBA.

      Lin can handle any kind of pressure, including double and triple teams. He's the mentally toughest player I've ever seen compete in the NBA by a longshot. Only Lin could keep going despite the withering racism that nearly kept him from realizing his NBA dreams.

      It would be a gigantic mistake to assume that Lin is injury prone and thus reduce his contract offer accordingly. Many players have come back and earned big contracts while producing LESS than Lin has in his short stint.

      If we want to talk injury risk damaging a guy's future potential, I'd be leery of Kyrie Irving who missed his entire freshman ear of college and couldn't finish out the 2012 season. That is a fragile guy who teams should be wary of, not Lin who was injury free for basically 4 years at Harvard.

    9. One benefit of Lin staying a Knick for 1-2 more years is that he would have the room to refine his game and make his stumbles while the 'Big 3' of Anthony, Stoudamire, and Chandler served as lightning rods for the media.

      Showing he can physically endure the NBA as a starter is in Lin's interest.

      Maybe Lin's global celebrity can be uncoupled from his identity as an NBA player as far as personal benefit to Lin. But his marketability to profit a team cannot be separated from his identity as a member of that team. If Lin's identity as an NBA player is as an injury-prone player who pulls a star salary to wear a suit during games, that's not good.

      On the other hand, marketability is more about image than substance. Maybe Lin's global popularity is strong enough where it's worth giving Lin a star contract now to grab a value-added ROI bump before his current global image can be tarnished if he does turn out to be injury-prone. There's also the consideration that Yao Ming's marketability remained high despite his injuries and Lin's global popularity may be as durable as Yao's. But then, Yao established himself with 3 full seasons before he started missing swathes of games. Lin hasn't done that yet.

      Which is not to say, of course, that Lin is injury-prone - we don't know yet. But his knee injuries at a young age with relatively few games/minutes played and failure to make at least a token return against Miami are enough to give pause when weighing length and size of commitment to Lin right now.

    10. Lin is ALREADY the lightning rod for the media, not just in NY but everywhere.

      For example, bleacherreport didn't write "5 college prospects that are already better than Eric Bledsoe". No, it was Jeremy Lin even though Bledsoe was the higher rated pg prospect in Lin's "draft" year of 2010 but hasn't even come close to being as good as Lin.

      Lin absorbed a major physical beating in his games as a Knick. He went from zero training camp and practice player status to getting triple teamed for 40+ minutes a night. If anything, it's a MIRACLE that Lin played as well as he did for that long.

      What people don't realize is that Lin doesn't even have to play at the All Star level he did to warrant a big contract. Like was posted by jlinfan#1, there are a lot of pgs who outearn Lin for far less production. If Lin was a non Asian player who averaged only 12 points and handed out 6 assists in 28 min a night, any NBA team that wanted to outbid the Knicks for him would be considered justified in doing so.

      Lin deserves the big money, which still isn't big compared to guys that have lower ceilings and less on court production and less durability.

    11. Sure, Kyrie Irving may prove to be too fragile and risky when he's a FA, too. Being a number-one over-all pick has its privileges, like a multi-year safety net to work stuff out.

      The difference between Irving's injuries and Lin's injuries is that Lin's injuries were characterized as the wear-and-tear variety. Wear and tear of knees is unavoidable for NBA players, and many players eventually get surgery, but if Lin has a lower threshold to endure unavoidable regular wear and tear, that's a risk.

      There's also a difference between shutting it down for the regular season, as Lin and Irving both did, and not being available 5 weeks after a meniscus repair in a play-off elimination game when the team had lost its starting guards. The projected recovery period was 6 weeks and if Lin wasn't physically able to attempt to play in Game 5, that's not a character indictment. But the failure des say something nonetheless about Lin's physical resilience for a position that makes heavy demands on the knees, especially with his style of play.

      Is Lin worth the risk? Definitely - 2 years at 5 mil per is a no-brainer risk/reward. But for teams weighing a blow-the-Knicks-out-of-the-water offer beyond the Gilbert Arenas provision, how much more risk is Lin worth? Maybe a lot. His knees are a risk, though.

    12. I did start by saying that if I were an owner or GM, my caution about offering Lin a big backloaded contract would be based more on his knees than other areas, which include performance.

      Not much on-line about Lin's right knee, but my understanding is that he had surgery on his right knee during the 2011 off-season, hence the big brace he wore on it. The Warriors didn't ride Lin like Secretariat in 2010-11.

      I would prefer to monitor Lin's knees over another 1-2 years, as though he were on a 1st-round contract. But if my organization wanted him badly enough and believed he'd be out of reach when he became a UFA or another team was willing to make a big bid for him at auction now with a long-term deal, then I'd have to weigh the risk of not buying a possible superstar versus the risk of buying a possibly injury-prone player.

    13. Players in the NBA can have bad knees and still play great.

      Lin is a guy who will gradually adjust his game. He no longer has to kamikaze himself because he'll finally be on a team that actually wants him.

      I'd take the risk with Lin's knees if I were a GM. If he played as well for Woodson as he did with one leg, that means he's got serious game.

      Next NBA season won't have the compressed schedule or Landry Fields' couch. It'll be a healthy, pampered, and contractually guaranteed Lin that walks into his first ever training camp with a team that isn't trying to get rid of him. So no more Lin killing himself just to keep himself from being rewaived.

    14. That's the hope.

      Lin fans who want him to leave the Knicks in order to resurrect the heights of Linsanity for full seasons don't seem to appreciate that their wish may not be physically sustainable for Lin. If Lin had Lebron James' body, then maybe, but he doesn't.

      Woodson's system should help Lin adjust his game. I like the balance where Lin picks his spots, sets up and plays off of Anthony and his other teammates, then steps on the gas when the situation calls for it, like in the 76ers game. That's a Nash-like balance. Nash has somehow maintained a high level of play for years since he was diagnosed with a bad back.

    15. Lin fans who want to see Lin leave are justified in doing so based on the overall dysfunctionality of the Knicks and Mike Woodson's comments about Lin.

      Lin fans who want to see Lin stay are justified in doing so based on the overall dysfunctionality of the Knicks and Mike Woodson's comments about Lin.

      I myself don't truly care if the Knicks keep Lin or not. Lin will do great as a Knick, and Lin will do great not as a Knick.

  19. Yeah right. Some of you guys need to relax. Some of you put too much emphasis on winning or losing. It's not like Jeremy's style of play is drimental to winning like some others. Was Lebron not a great player before his championship? Was Lin not a great player for Harvard when he didn't win anything over there? I personally don't like the Knicks either, especially their many delusional media and fans. But I am okay wherever Jeremy goes as long as he's happy as he appears to be. Jeremy seems like a loyal person and he already has made many friends at NY. I don't think he will leave at this moment.

    1. You make a good point that Lin has made a solid start with the Knicks. During his formative developmental period, continuity is a good thing, and this Knicks team is more-or-less set for the next 3 years. Lin knows the organization, his coaches, and teammates. He can build on last season with them. On another team, he'd have to start over again. After 1-2 seasons seasoning, Lin would be in a good position to 'graduate' from the Knicks and leave to lead his own team.

    2. Lin is good enough to lead NOW.

      He's led underdog teams all his life. The guy has a proven winner and leader since grade school. Lin is one of the most dominant players I have ever seen.

      I used to feel that Lin was the 2nd coming of Micheal Ray Richardson. Yet already Lin has far eclipsed Richardson in maturity and even game. I am starting to belueve that Lin is the 2nd coming of Magic Johnson, though Lin didn't have Kareem Abdul Jabbar who was the REAL force behind Magic's 5 championships.

    3. I don't know if Lin will reach Magic heights, but I consider him in the same mold. Certainly Lin had much harder circumstances and a better historic run as a first time starter than Magic did.

      If there's one player who I feel could become a "mini Magic Johnson", it's Lin.

    4. Magic had Kareem. Lin has Anthony. Passers need scorers to convert their passes into assists. Lin and Anthony should develop into one of the best combos in the NBA.

    5. Lol.......... Yay..... Hes got melanoma........... Maybe Kareem wants to come outta retirement.

    6. lol lin has someone who makes him and the rest of the team worst. vs. magic having kareem

    7. K: "He's led underdog teams all his life. The guy has a proven winner and leader since grade school. Lin is one of the most dominant players I have ever seen."

      That's the thing. Lin has been the dominant force on his teams throughout his basketball career. Lin dominated the ball and controlled his teams in high school, college, and the NBADL. During the Linsanity streak when Anthony and Stoudamire were out, Lin was able to fall back to his comfort zone: he dominated the ball, was aggressive as a scorer, and controlled the team.

      In his basketball life, Lin simply hasn't had a lot of experience playing with teammates who are as good or better than him. That wouldn't be a problem for Lin now if he was making his way in the NBA at his natural position, SG or combo guard. Instead, Lin is trying to become an NBA PG who can set up - even defer - to his teammates first and run a team offense.

      Now that Lin is set to play with star teammates as Woodson's PG for a full season, Lin will have to learn to be just as productive while being less dominant with the ball and with less control than he's used to. That's good training for Lin at this point of his career.

      Learning how to play PG outside of his comfort zone now means that when Lin gets to be his team's leader again, whether with the Knicks or elsewhere, he'll be skilled with the full spectrum of guard-play. Unlike guards like Westbrook and Rose who are more limited as PGs.

    8. Lin has been a PG playing SG all of his life. And he's playing NBA PG a heck of a lot better than guys like Brandon Knight who were drafted in the lottery.

      On every team Lin has played on, he has let his teammates try to win the game first. Then when they cannot, he takes over. That has been true at every level of ball, including the Knicks. Great players like Lin do that.

      Jeremy Lin is the dominant player on the Knicks, no matter how many poor shooting nights Carmelo Anthony has or what Woodson says in the papers. That's no different from the status Lin had throughout his entire basketball career.

      Lin will be on the Select Team this summer. That's the first time he's not going to automatically step in and be the best player on his team.

    9. Hey Eric, did you see Lin play in HS? Because it doesn't sound like you did, saying he isn't a natural PG. Being from the Bay Area, I was able to see Lin play a few times in HS and he was a true PG. So all this talk about how he isn't one gives you not a shred of credibility.

    10. And KHuang, it is really hard not to tune you because you are all over the place. Try toning down the hyperbole for once.

    11. I think you should just TUNE ME OUT.

      Your quality of life will improve.

    12. KHuang you should start your own Lin blog.

    13. But then I'd tune MYSELF out, unknown!!!

    14. I've watched Lin play in college, NBADL (props to youtube), and the NBA. To clarify, you're contending that judging Lin as a HS basketball player is "credible" whereas judging Lin as a basketball player at levels higher than HS has "not a shred of credibility"?

      Based on my observations, Lin is a natural SG/PG combo guard. I would describe his playing style as a lead guard, a heavy ball-handling guard rather than a PG, like Iverson or Jordan.

      As a lead guard, Lin is versatile, produces across the board, and is a playmaker - I concede that in today's NBA, that's more than can be said about many guards who are labeled as PGs. Lin has the talent to be a NBA PG, is already an above-average NBA PG, and I'm optimistic that Lin can develop into an elite Nash-type PG.

    15. K: "Lin has been a PG playing SG all of his life."

      That works. Before the NBA, up to and including the NBADL, Lin played with teammates below his talent level with the same said for his competition. The smart strategy was put the ball in Lin's hands as the best player on the court and let him attack.

      In the NBA, that's still a good and viable strategy. But now that Lin is playing at the proper talent level with teammates whose talent he can trust, Lin can properly develop as a PG.

    16. Eric, I think that it would be cool if Jeremy Lin developed more SG skills.

      When I think of classic SG play, I think of a guy like Ray Allen who curls off high screens, flares (V) to the 3 point line, runs off low screens for flex cuts, and can stop and pop in isolation while also finishing at the basket.

      Jeremy Lin can score against anyone in isolation. That has been amply proven, even when there are two or even three guys on him. But I haven't seen him yet have to work hard for screens off the ball, mainly because he's the passer most of the time. Over time, Lin will have to develop those skills more as teams adjust to getting the ball out of his hands.

      I think Jeremy Lin can become a "guard", not a PG playing SG or an SG playing PG.

    17. I wanted to see more of Davis at PG with Lin at SG last season so Lin could show off his off-the-ball game. It should be a strength for him and I saw him do it in college. Giving up the ball earlier in possessions to Anthony this season should allow Lin to play off the ball more. If the Knicks buy a veteran PG while skimping on SG, then we may also see more Lin at SG.

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    1. comments probably came from knicks management.

      Yeah, they are kissing up to lin. But imo the main motive was to size up lin's health cause they worked out together. lin should throw it back into their face and demand at least chandler money.

  22. What you guys think if the Knicks were to pursue Brandon Roy?

    Provided that his knees will hold up for an entire season, I believe he can be better than Fields even if he was half the player he was because of his shooting ability.

    1. I had suggested this on this forum several months ago.

      While nobody can predict how good Roy's health is, there's no doubt that he is a great player that could help any team.

      There is only one on court concern for me. I don't know how well Brandon Roy moves without the basketball on offense. That would be a concern for me even if Roy were totally healthy.

      Like post up play which has become nearly extinct in today's NBA, the art of moving without the basketball is almost gone too. That's hardly surprising in an NBA where players are entering the league with less fundamentals amd more hype.

    2. I agree, in today's NBA, it's all about dunking the ball or hitting a 3-pointer in someone's face. Nobody wants to be that guy who waits in the corner for the open shot, or the guy who gets himself to the line for free throws.
      It all starts with High school level coaches teaching their players to use fundamentals.

    3. Unfortunately. I remember watching the unathletic Peja making the run and jump guys look silly with the backdoor cuts for layups. AND he'll hit the 3 pointer in your face too!

    4. Stojakovic could play that way with the Kings because he played in the right system (Princeton offense) with elite-passing outside-in big men (Divac, Webber, Miller).

      On the Knicks, Chandler and Stoudemire aren't known as passers and they clog the paint when they're on the court together. Anthony is the team's best passing F. The best way to create an off-the-ball game for the Knicks Gs is to play off of Anthony in the post while unclogging the paint by not playing Chandler and Stoudemire together. Lin and Anthony have the potential to develop a versatile, effective 2-man game.

      Fields is solid off the ball, but he really needs to figure out his outside shot. Anthony may need to be convinced to play off the ball, but he is a skilled off-the-ball scorer. It's too bad the Knicks don't have passing big.

  23. I agree, you can make a whole list of guys who are "unathletic" but who can school Lebron, Durant, and even Dwight Howard on the post up, off the curl, or cutting to the basket. Guys like Chris Kaman, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Andre Miller, Carl Landry, etc.

    Sam Cassell was an excellent fundamentals player who was a step slower but still schooling Chris Paul and DWill when they first entered the league.

  24. Another off-the-ball wrinkle the Knicks can try is to play off of Lin in the post. As is, many of Lin's dribble drives end with essentially a post-up move and I assume Lin knows how to post up the traditional way, too.

    I generally don't like PGs posting up, because most PGs and teams are uncomfortable playing that way, but I think Lin can make it work.


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