Watching the draft…thinking back to 2010 when I was prayin for JLIn to get picked, still can't believe the Knicks or Lakers didn't use one of their two 2nd round picks on Jeremy. Oh well, I guess it turned out OK for JLin….
2010 NBA Draft: Second-round grades - NBA - CBSSports.com News, Scores, Stats, Fantasy Advice
Jeremy Lin was rated so low that he didn't even get drafted.
ReplyDeleteIt turns out that the worst rated player in 2010 became the best player.
I am amazed how poorly scouted Jeremy Lin was, and likely still is.
Isn't that the year the Knicks picked Andy Rautins? Why did they do that ?
ReplyDeleteBecause the Knicks honestly thought that Andy Rautins was a more athletic and better player than Jeremy Lin.
DeleteI sound like I am joking, but I'm DEAD SERIOUS.
Knicks wanted a shooter, and coming out of college, Rautins was supposed to be a tournament-tested shooter.
DeleteThen they should've gone with Lin and his 50%+ shooting percentage.
DeleteThat's why the Knicks lose. They can't identify their needs or draft the right guys to fill them.
Rautins was a 3-point shooting specialist with a tournament track record for an elite basketball school. He was supposed to be a better passing Steve Novak. It didn't work out.
DeleteThat makes the Knicks look DUMBER than I had originally intended.
DeleteHow so?
DeleteRautins was a 'need' pick. As we saw last season with Novak and for years with the Suns, spot-up 3-point shooting is an important part of D'Antoni's system. That was Rautins. The 09-10 Knicks didn't have any Novak-type 3-point shooting specialists, while Rautins' track record at Syracuse said he could shoot 3s and pass, and had a solid basketball IQ. In hindsight, Rautins didn't pan out, but on paper at the time, filling a specific team need with a 2nd round pick made sense.
Now, Rautins was picked 38th. The Knicks then picked Fields at 39 as the 'best available' player. From the viewpoint of the Knicks bypassing Lin in the 2nd round, the Fields pick looks worse than the Rautins pick.
Unlike Rautins the tournament-tested 3-point shooting specialist filling a team need, Fields was a general-purpose wing who didn't specialize in anything. Where the 09-10 Knicks needed to add 3-point shooting, that team already featured young highly regarded versatile wings: Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. At the time, the team also had Al Harrington, who they let go to Denver in part due to their glut of similar wings. Fields just added to the glut.
In hindsight, of course, Fields impressed at SG and shot the 3 reasonably well as a rookie before Gallinari and Chandler were traded for Anthony. But at the time of the 2010 draft, picking Rautins and Lin - whose pick-and-roll potential the Knicks recognized at the time - in the 2nd round would have made more sense than picking Rautins and Fields.
If you have a "need pick" and draft a guy who couldn't fill the need, that is a FAIL.
DeleteLandry Fields was a dominant star in college who should've been a lottery pick and the 2nd perimeter player off the board after John Wall. He never should've fell that far, but he did.
That the Knicks acquired players whose NBA impact is inversely proportional to their draft position indicates that the entire NBA drafting mentality is broken, not just that of the Knicks.
Knicks waste their 48th draft pick on 6'8" Kostas Papanikolaou, who plays in Greece and will not come over until 2014 season.
ReplyDeleteThis does nothing for depth, backup PG, or backup big. Pass on Darius Johnson-Odom, Robert Sacre, and Scott Machado.
How is that a waste? They got a nice asset and wouldn't have affected their already tight payroll for next year. If they drafted Machado, then it would have been the true waste. The guy went undrafted and the Knicks can now sign him anytime they want without using any pick, so what's the purpose of using an asset when you don't need to?
DeleteBTW, it's nice for me that they didn't draft any PG which shows that they have faith in Lin to be their PG of the future.
The way the 2012 draft went, the Knicks could have had the #1 overall pick and still they could not have drafted a player as impactful on an NBA court as Jeremy Lin.
DeleteMonths ago, I got flamed for posting here that the Bobcats should've traded their presumed #1 pick to the Knicks for Lin and Novak and filler. The Bobcats ended up with #2 Michael Kidd Gilchrist who can't score and is a role player at best. I just can't see how the extremely raw MKG (a 2nd round pick in my eyes) would have more of an impact than Lin already has.
Lin is the best upcoming young point guard in the entire NBA. The 2012 draft will only make that more obvious.
KHuang,
DeleteESPN NBArank published Oct. 12, 2011 put Lin at #467.
I read in some article that working on his shots last summer, every time Lin missed the basket, his shooting coach shouted "four sixty-seven" to him. Haha! His coach really knew how to encourage him.
I wonder what his #NBAranking will be this year.
Thought on that pre-season 467 ranking.
DeleteMaybe it was the onrushing deadline of the Feb 10 cuts and the shock that he was in his last week to prove himself to the Knicks and quite possibly the NBA, but something clicked in Lin before that Nets game.
The narrative that Lin was totally ignored by D'Antoni before he played Lin out of desperation in the Feb 4 Nets game is a myth. Before his breakout game, Lin played in 9 games for the Knicks, including 6 games with 3:51-6:36 minutes and an extended 20-minute stint against the Rockets on Jan 28. Though Lin showed flashes of his skills, until that Nets game his play was not good and at times was downright awful. Before Lin looked like a future of Hall of Famer, he looked like a 12th man.
D'Antoni gave Lin an opportunity to save his Knicks, and quite possibly NBA, career in the final week before the Feb 10 cuts - Lin grabbed it and exploded. If D'Antoni had instead DNPed Lin that week, I would have been disappointed, but I also would have conceded that Lin had been given a fair shot by the Knicks in an ideal situation and blown it.
ESPN placing Lin at 467 was right. Lin made it wrong.
Add: In my opinion, Lin's best game of the season before Linsanity was his Jan 24 game against the Bobcats. Worst? His Dec 31 game against the Kings and Isaiah Thomas. Due to that game, I especially enjoyed Lin's shredding of the Kings and his scores against Thomas on Feb 15.
DeleteLin may have looked like a 12th man to you, Eric, and that's because you're not actually looking at what Lin is doing on the court.
DeleteI didn't need statistics to see that Lin was extremely productive in his short GS stint, though the statistics amply backed that up. Every game Lin played, he would do something amazing that just blew my mind. Lin does things that even All Stars often don't do.
For example, Lin had trouble shredding the Sacramento double team because his nondribbling Knick teammates didn't come to the ball on the trap. Everybody crowed about how Isaiah Thomas was so great for getting those steals. Yet I was laughing my butt off because Lin kept trying to atone for those turnovers by forcing a steal and getting an offensive foul that would have been called a block. Jawdropping plays like these why I was predicting All Star potential long before Linsanity.
What clicked for Lin was the sound of Knick PG bricks clanging off the rim. All he needed was a chance to play more minutes for his Golden State leading PER to show its stuff. Many of us on this site called it correctly.
Is 3:51-6:36 supposed to be enough to show more than flashes of skill? Even before Linsanity, he looked like the same player. There is only that much you can show when you are given limited consistent playing time and responsibility.
DeleteD'Antoni obviously did not ignore JLin in the literal sense. He however did ignore him in the sense that he believes JLin to be worthy of consistent minutes for development into a future NBA guard. D'Antoni does seem to be a classy guy, realising that JLin was going to be cut and giving him more minutes and responsibility, starting in the Boston game. At least D'Antoni gave him a chance to show what he can do in game what he was probably already doing in practice.
Back to JLin being bad before the Nets, it just isn't true. If people saw how Jeremy was making plays and helping out on defence from his Warrior days for what it is, they could see that Jeremy was a floor leader. He was a bit raw on certain areas of his games, but most rookie are and team staff are willing to let highly rated rookies play out their mistakes.
The Knicks (except Lin) were terrible not only in dribbling, but also in passing ball.
DeleteHas anyone suspected the reason Knick PGs had such a high injury rate(Lin, Davis, and Shumpert) was because the ways their teammates moved on the court?
Except Lin wasn't a highly rated, deeply invested in rookie. He was a 2nd year waiver-wire pick-up - and a waiver-wire pick-up who was initially signed to take the roster spot of an injured young guard (Shumpert) who had since returned.
Delete12th men are NBA players, too. Bigs who are 12th men can be stiffs, but guards who hang on as 12th men generally have something that says they have the ability to be in the NBA. The flashes said Lin wasn't out of his depth, but his production was shaky.
What Lin had going for him was the same thing working against him: D'Antoni required a PG like Lin to run his system and the team was struggling largely due to missing the right PG. That major team need meant Lin would get an opportunity, but it also meant if Lin failed to reach the bar, then the Knicks would be compelled to look for another PG (eg, Mike James). It was frustrating as a fan, because the opportunity was there for Lin, but he was doing enough wrong to keep the Feb 10 cuts hanging over his head while not doing enough right to break through.
The only pre-Linsanity game where Lin was sharp was the 1/24 game against the Bobcats. I guess that game convinced D'Antoni to give Lin the extended look in the Rockets game on 1/28. The Rockets game could have been the start of his run, but Lin was shaky.
I guess Lin showed enough, though, and the Knicks PG play was bad enough for D'Antoni to give Lin more looks. By Feb 4, D'Antoni's job and the Knicks season were on the line. I believe the Knicks, by the Nets game, were desperate for competent PG play. And Lin's room for error as a non-guaranteed waiver-wire pick-up was, or very nearly was, used up.
What if Lin had been shaky, again, against Deron Williams and the Nets? Maybe D'Antoni would have kept running Lin out there for the rest of the week just to make sure Lin wasn't the answer at PG. Or maybe it would have been Lin's last chance.
If Lin had been cut by the Knicks, how would he have explained to other NBA teams not being able to play for a famously PG-friendly coach, in the system supposedly tailor-made for him, on a team starving for competent PG play?
Well, Lin doesn't have to make that explanation to the NBA because he grabbed the (last?) lifeline and pulled himself out of the ocean before his NBA career drowned.
No NBA player, not even Michael Jordan, can play consistently without the promise of minutes and a roster spot.
DeleteMost NBA rookie PGs taken in the lottery struggle much more than Lin did as a stats leading GS rookie. Besides, the reports comig out of NY and GS about Lin's practice habits reveal a hypercompetitive young man who often "killed" in practice. But his coaches weren't going to play him no matter what, and that's why Golden State can't win and NY was a big time loser before Lin saved the season.
An undrafted nonguaranteed rookie who plays for a coaching staff that is unsure of him need not play like the SUPERSTAR Lin has played like in his low NBA league leading minutes in the pre Linsanity era.
When Lin was a rookie, I wondered how it was that he could kill it in the D-League but struggle to win a back-up role competing with mediocre players on a bad Warriors team. I expect the ESPN rankers wondered the same thing. Perhaps the 467 ranking should be blamed as much on the Warriors' dysfunction as on Lin.
DeleteObviously, Lin didn't learn how to play Linsanity-quality basketball between the Celtics game on Feb 3 and the Nets game on Feb 4. The change was mental. Which makes me wonder, how much did Lin's Warriors experience mess with his head? (He wasn't with the Rockets long enough to blame them.)
* I suspect (not 'expect') the ESPN rankers wondered the same thing.
DeleteJesLee: I blame Lin's wear-and-tear knee injury on too much Linsanity-style basketball for too many minutes on too condensed a schedule. My hope is that Woodson will help Lin, not to change Lin's style, but to moderate it, learn how to play off teammates, eg, Anthony, better, and pick his spots to unleash Linsanity. Also, by not giving into the temptation to overuse Lin, especially if the Knicks fail to sign a good back-up PG.
DeleteI blame Davis's knee injury in Game 4 on his knee-injury history and resulting weakened body. It seemed all season as though whenever Davis tried to raise his intensity, something on him would break. Come the play-offs against the athletic Heat, Davis had no choice but to raise his intensity. And his knee exploded. If I recall correctly, Davis's knee popped on a straightline dribble-drive trying to beat faster Heat players to the basket on a fastbreak.
I blame Shumpert's injury in Game 1 on trying too hard while handling the ball against the Heat's elevated play-off defense. If I recall correctly, Shumpert was trying to crossover a guard (Chalmers?) at midcourt when he over-torqued and popped his knee. I also blame Lin's absence, indirectly, for Shumpert's injury. If Lin had been in his customary role of running the break, then Shumpert wouldn't have had to man the point in transition, and could have run free on the wing, planning for a perfectly thrown alley-oop pass from Lin instead.
Lin has been the same Lin from when he was a rookie.
DeleteThe difference is that once the Knicks made their internal decision to cut him in favor of Walker Russell, the Knicks threw him on the court to prove to themselves that Lin COULDN'T play. Whoops, a star was born.
This reminds of of the scene in Caddyshack where the guy hits the golfball so badly that he gets turned to face the wrong way and hits a monster shot.
What's the difference between D'Antoni playing Lin to prove he can play as a Knicks PG vs playing Lin to prove he couldn't play as a Knicks PG? The if/then outcomes look the same.
DeleteD'Antoni DNPing Lin to prove he couldn't play as a Knicks PG would have made a difference.
Don't ask me.
DeleteAsk the Knicks, because that's what they told the media.
2012 USA Basketball Men’s National Team Training & Exhibition Schedule
ReplyDeleteJuly 5-12 Las Vegas Training & Exhibition Game - Las Vegas, Nevada
July 6 12-3 p.m. USA Team Training University of Nevada-Las Vegas
July 7 11-2 p.m. USA Team Training UNLV
July 8 12-3 p.m. USA Team Training UNLV
July 9 12-3 p.m. USA Team Training UNLV
July 10 12-3 p.m. USA Team Training UNLV
July 11 12-3 p.m. USA Team Training UNLV
July 12 6 p.m. USA vs. Dominican Republic Thomas & Mack Center, UNLV (Ticket Info)
That would be cool if practices were open to the public and to go see how Jeremy does against the best of the best!
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Deleteno way it's too much of a distraction but i do hope they will be a broadcast match between the select team and the senior team or blue vs white.
DeleteSo no team, not even one, considered drafting Taiwanese guard Jet Tang ? Scott Machado ?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't draft Jet Chang either. Just because he's an Asian American college player doesn't mean he's going to be the next Jeremy Lin.
DeleteEven though Lin was underrated coming out of college, he was not completely overlooked like most people think. This 2010 draft ranking had Jeremy Lin as the #16 SG.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/DraftExpress-2010-NBA-Draft-Positional-Rankings-Released-3490/
If the NBA draft had 3 rounds, Lin probably would have been drafted. Even if you didn't scout Lin, Lin's stats alone were impressive enough to catch your attention. (But then most scouts probably devalued his stats due to weak conference and him being Asian).
On the other hand, Chang doesn't even appear on draft rankings (other than Chad Ford's top 100 supposedly, but it is "Insider" so no one has seen his list).
http://nbadraft.net/ranking/positional
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/
Chang's college stats were very mediocre, and playing against D2 competition, he would be lucky to get a summer league invite.
Machado is in a similar position as Lin in 2010. Teams have heard of the guard from the lower-rated conference, don't rate him high enough to draft, but will pay attention to his summer play due to the pre-draft hype. Some team will invite Machado to play for them, like the Mavs invited Lin.
DeleteMachado has the advantage over Lin that he's carrying over his college position of PG to the NBA, whereas Lin was a college SG/combo being billed as an NBA PG. When NBA people are skeptical of blue-chippers like Westbrook switching positions, they're going to take a wait-and-see approach on an Ivy League SG switching to NBA PG.
Machado has the disadvantage compared to Lin of fitting the stereotype of the fundamentally sound, skilled, smart college PG who lacks the physical ability to translate his game to the NBA. It's one thing when that kind of PG competed in the ACC like Kendall Marshall, it's another thing when that PG is trying to break into the NBA from the MAAC.
Machado is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from Lin.
DeleteLin was a dominant college player who kicked the tail out of top level D1 teams. He had size, athleticism, skills, and was totally dominant in every aspect of the game. Scott Machado is none of those things.
Jet Chang is nothing like Lin either. His skill level is that of Jimmer Fredette but without Jimmer's excellent athletic gifts. Chang didn't dominate in Portsmouth the way Lin did as a low shooting but super efficient PG.
Racism is the SOLE reason why Lin was regarded so low. The only player arguably better than Lin in 2010 was John Wall, and in both 2011 and 2012 there are no players better than Lin as far as actual NBA on court production goes.
It seems that NBA front offices rely mainly on hype to make their blunderful decisions. That's the same hype that said that Jeremy Lin couldn't play in the NBA but that Anthony Davis is a future superstar (I can't see it, I can't see it!!!)
Plus Lin's Harvard background. Ivy Leaguers occasionally make the NBA, but Harvardians?
DeleteOf racism and Harvard, I do blame racism more than Harvard for Lin's suppressed ranking. Scouts do judge players in the context of level of competition. However, Lin played enough against higher-tier NCAA competition to judge his ability and skill to hang with the blue-chip prospects.
Two other things that hurt Lin's ranking, to a lesser extent: Lin's position switch and Harvard not making the NCAA tournament.
On Anthony Davis, I agree on the hyperbole. When the pundits started comparing him to Kevin Durant, who was a scoring wunderkind coming out of Texas, I knew the hype had become unhinged.
DeleteKevin Durant was a magnificent college player, and so was Greg Oden who was correctly taken before him.
DeleteI personally believe that John Calipari has done a superb job of hyping his players. With the exception of Derrick Rose who had the good fortune of being drafted by a quality organization in the Bulls, I have been completely underwhelmed with the lack of basketball fundamentals displayed by Cal's students.
If I were a GM, Anthony Davis would be a late first round pick at best. His slow footwork, lack of physical strength, total lack of scoring fundamentals, and overrated defense lead me to believe he has "bust" written all over him. MKG to me isn't even a 1st round talent, as he has no NBA level skill at all. The other Kentucky players I would not even bother drafting.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Lin who probably wouldn't even be allowed on the court at UK is the NBA's newest dominant PG, at least if we are talking strictly about production.
I believe if Lin had attended Stanford, as he originally wanted, he would have been drafted in the 1st round. Maybe 5-10 picks too low due to racism, but still in the 1st round. His game, as sophisticated as it was, would have been improved by the better competition and tournament experience, too.
DeleteWell, ex Stanford coach Trent Johnson didn't think Lin was good enough to even walk on.
DeleteEven when Lin was becoming a star ay Harvard, his HS coach tried to persuade Johnson to take Lin. Nope.
The kid that supposedly wasn't good enough to play D1 is now an NBA star. Great scouting by the "expurts".
The Ivy League is D1, too, but I get what you mean.
DeleteI've also heard that Fields lobbied for Lin to transfer to Stanford after Lin dominated in Bay area summer scrimmages with PAC-10 players. I wonder if Lin would have transferred to Stanford (or Berkeley or UCLA) after settling in at Harvard.
I believe the lower quality of his college team and Ivy League competition held back Lin's development.
When I watched Lin play in person at Columbia, he seemed bored and careless. He coasted and did just enough. And Harvard still blew out Columbia. I saw the same habit in Lin last season against bad teams like the Kings and Hawks. When the competition is too easy in formative years, it's easy to pick up bad habits.
Before the NBA, Lin dominated within his own league and was able to sneak up on his top competition, eg, Mater Dei, 2010 summer league vs John Wall, and Harvard-UConn vs Kemba Walker. In other words, Lin didn't regularly compete on even terms with his true basketball peers. He could get away with coasting in most games, punctuated by getting up on the special occasions he faced his true peers, like UConn, or the Lakers. Then when he faced them, he had the advantage over his true peers of being the aggressor, the surprise attacker.
Now that Lin has arrived and can't surprise his true peers anymore, for the first time in his basketball life, he's experiencing being attacked by the top competition and competing nightly at the highest level. If Lin had been able to play for an elite program like Berkeley, Stanford, or UCLA, he would have learned earlier how to regularly compete with his true peers on even terms, rather than sneaking up on good teams and coasting against inferior teams. He would have competed in the NCAA tournament and his game would have improved faster and earlier.
Lin still reached the NBA playing for Harvard, of course, but that's due more to nature than nurture. And of course, Lin is still improving. My point is he would have been a better player coming into the NBA if he'd gone to college where he wanted.
Lin got into the NBA BECAUSE he was at Harvard.
DeleteBefore one can compete against the big boys, one has to be let on the court first. Only Harvard and Brown wanted Lin for their teams.
Lin essentially recruited Harvard's coach Tommy Amaker. Without Lin's approval, no Amaker.
The whole story has renewed my faith in great people like Lin CREATING their own way even when the world is prejudiced against them.
I agree that Lin had to go where he knew he would play. I'm not implying Lin made a mistake by choosing the team offering to play him, just that it would have been better for his development if Lin could have developed playing at his level in college, rather than beneath his level at Harvard. But yes, you have to be able to get in the game first. If no fair opportunity, then no development.
DeleteI believe, though, that if Lin had been given a fair opportunity to compete for playing time with blue-chippers, even McDonald's all-American guards, he would have won out at SG, if not initially at PG. I also believe that, unlike at Harvard, a coach of an elite program with an eye on the NBA would have classified and groomed Lin as a PG to satisfy the NBA scouts who downgraded Lin in part due to the position confusion.
Lin WAS given the opportunity to compete against the best - in the NBA. And boy did he win out.
DeleteNBA scouts who degraded Lin as a PG just because he played SG are the same ones that think Damien Lilliard will be anything more than a shoot first scoring guard.
I don't ever look at a guy and automatically assume he can only play the position he is playing on the court. I look at whether he can MAKE PLAYS. Jeremy Lin made not just PG plays at Harvard, but SG and even SF plays too. And the bulk of those plays were obvious NBA plays.
Lin wasn't really rated that low in his draft year. In most awards given out to point guards, he was second to John Wall. But Lin wasn't drafted anyways.
ReplyDeleteThis year, Jet Chang wasn't drafted either. he was DII superstar, but still didn't get drafted. we'll see how Chang's story ends.
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Delete"Lin wasn't really rated that low in his draft year."
DeleteReally? It seems the scouts didn't care about his rating or stats. They saw Lin as "a smart passer with a flawed jump shot and a thin frame, who might not have the strength and athleticism to defend, create his own shot or finish at the rim in the NBA" and thus, didn't picked him.
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how Chang's story ends.
Lin was a finalist for the Bob Cousy award, but he was poorly ranked as an NBA PG prospect.
DeleteDraftexpress.com, *the* premier NBA draft website along with NBAdraft.net, didn't even list Lin as a PG. Lin was ranked 16 on their SG list (15 was Andy Rautins), which included combo guards.
NBAdraft.net didn't include Lin on their 100 top prospects list, which had 7 PGs and 10 PG/SGs.
The exception was Ed Weiland at Hoopsanalyst who is famous for his foresight on Lin: "After John Wall there are no sure things. Jeremy Lin might be the #2 PG available in this draft. He looks to me like a sleeper in the mold of George Hill. He appears to have the skills to become at least a usable combo guard. If he can get the passing thing down and handle the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star."
FYI, I think Lin has better PG ability than George Hill, based on what I saw of Hill manning the point for the Pacers. It's hard to tell whether combo guards can play the point with the Spurs since their system is designed to cover for Parker's PG ability.
Add: Sources:
DeleteDraftexpress.com's 2010 draft positional rankings: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/DraftExpress-2010-NBA-Draft-Positional-Rankings-Released-3490/
NBAdraft.net's 2010 top 100 prospects: http://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard/2010
Ed Weiland's famous analysis of Lin's prospects: http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487
I wouldn't draft Jet Chang either. Just because he's an Asian American college player doesn't mean he's going to be the next Jeremy Lin.
ReplyDeleteEven though Lin was underrated coming out of college, he was not completely overlooked like most people think. This 2010 draft ranking had Jeremy Lin as the #16 SG.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/DraftExpress-2010-NBA-Draft-Positional-Rankings-Released-3490/
If the NBA draft had 3 rounds, Lin probably would have been drafted. Even if you didn't scout Lin, Lin's stats alone were impressive enough to catch your attention. (But then most scouts probably devalued his stats due to weak conference and him being Asian).
On the other hand, Chang doesn't even appear on draft rankings (other than Chad Ford's top 100 supposedly, but it is "Insider" so no one has seen his list).
http://nbadraft.net/ranking/positional
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/
Chang's college stats were very mediocre, and playing against D2 competition, he would be lucky to get a summer league invite.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/free_agent_market_calls_for_linsanity_SCwaQXW6q2WKZe1TVdfAkL#ixzz1zI1bfdXF
ReplyDeleteGood read. Excerpts:
Lin becomes a free agent tomorrow at 12:01 a.m. and Grunwald can offer him a maximum four-year deal starting at $5.5 million with 7 percent raises — a package worth $24.5 million.
The only fly in the ointment is whether Toronto abandons its all-out pursuit of Nash and turns to Lin, the NBA’s first Chinese-American. Toronto has the league’s largest Asian community. The Raptors can offer Lin a maximum $5 million in each of the first two years, then balloon to a maximum $15 million in the third year in what’s known as a back-loaded offer. Or poison pill. That would destroy the Knicks from a luxury-tax standpoint.
There is a pro/con argument for Lin staying on the Knicks versus leaving now for a team willing to offer him a 'poison pill' backloaded deal.
DeleteAn interesting implication in the Berman article is that the Knicks, by waiting on the market to set his price, are willing to match a 4-year deal to keep Lin, if they can afford it. It makes sense for the Knicks to lock in Lin for that long because they need a PG for their "clumsy" fitting team and their salary cup is tied up by Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler for the next 3 years, without enough cap flexibility to add another PG of Lin's quality and potential.
Selfishly as a New Yorker, I want to see Lin stay in NYC, whether with the Knicks or Nets.
A team offering Lin a backloaded 4-year deal now presumably is in a rebuilding mode, would be making a longterm commitment to Lin as a core piece of the team, and perhaps even attempt to resurrect Linsanity by building a team around Lin's game. There's something to be said against being given your heart's desire before you're mature enough to handle it, but there's also something to be said for cream rising and growing into the role of leader.
From the immediate perspective of Lin's development, I support Lin staying on the Knicks for 1-2 years. Lin has improvements to make as an NBA PG, eg, tightening his combo-guard handle into a PG handle and protecting the ball, halfcourt awareness, physical endurance. Woodson will focus on those things. Lin can work on his game and make his stumbles while Anthony, in particular, serves as the team's media lightning rod. Lin needs to update his post-season resume from a HS state championship. The Knicks will provide a good setting for him to improve his PG game and gain crucial post-season experience.
From the perspective of Lin's future superstardom, though, I have a different view of Lin playing for the Knicks for 4 years in contrast to 1-2 years. (Note: I mean superstardom in the 1st-team NBA sense, not popularity/marketing sense.) If Lin progresses as expected, in 1-2 years, Lin will have outgrown the roles of Anthony's PG sidekick and Woodson's game manager. He should be ready by then for a Nash-type Mavs-to-Suns transition, to become a team centerpiece at the heart of a durable version of Linsanity, ready to lead his team on annual deep play-off runs.
Of course, signing with the Knicks for 4 years doesn't close the door on Lin superstardom in NYC. Reference: Bryant supplanting O'Neal with the Lakers or rising Rondo with the Celtics' aging Big 3. Within 4 years, all the Knicks will be up for new contracts. Anthony, who's never been a fitness fanatic, will be at the tail of his prime. The Knicks could well be ready in 4 years to re-center the team on Lin with a long-term organizational commitment and superstar pay. In 4 years, Lin would only be 27-28; Nash didn't get his own team until he was 29-30.
But a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, right? When Nash became a free agent, the Mavs chose instead to center their team on rising Nowitzki rather than then-border-line all-star Nash. While Lin is a rising star, he can't know right now whether the Knicks would make him their centerpiece when he's ready. Lin can be confident he will improve as a Knick in the short term, but if a team is willing to make him their centerpiece now for the long term, he could grow into the role on that team, too.
I don't actually care about awards or accolades in terms of Lin or any other NBA player.
DeleteI only ask myself if the player is doing as much as he can to positively impact the game as to get the win. In that sense, the only thing I care about is that Lin play for a team that maximizes his play by play contribution on the court.
That's why I got so excited about Lin when he was tearing it up in low minutes before Linsanity. He was doing everything he could to improve his team's outcome in the short time he was on the court.
I want to see Lin continue to play QUALITY MINUTES.
Oh yeah.
DeleteI hope my Phx Suns DON'T offer Lin that backloaded contract to sit him behind lottery pick Kendall Marshall who is hopelessly overrated as an NBA PG prospect.
The Suns drafted a player in Marshall who is going to be exposed as a slow defensively challenged nonscorer who can't physically get past people or finish at the rim. Teams are going to go under the pick to defend him (thus stressing Phx's underwhelming front line further) and attack him on the defensive end (making Phx's weak defense even weaker). I don't think he's going to succeed even off the bench, and already the Suns are touting him as Nash's replacement.
What the Suns need is a wing scorer. Several of them were drafted afterwards, including Andrew Nicholson who'd beat out everybody for starting PF and who Steve Nash would turn into a big time NBA scorer. As it stands, drafting Kendall Marshall may also have pushed Steve Nash out the door. This is looking like a totally DISASTROUS pick, potentially worse than the Robin Lopez and Earl Clark lottery fails that set the Suns back for years.
The Suns don't appear to consider Jeremy Lin worth pursuing. I'd like it to stay that way.
I agree. Given how badly the Suns constructed rosters around Nash, I don't trust them to construct a roster based on Lin.
DeleteKHuang:
ReplyDeleteYou have outdone yourself this time. You state that Anthony Davis should have been a late 1st round pick. OK fine ... give this list of guys that should have gone in front of him. You won't get past 6 names without veering into absurdity.
And that was just an opinion. You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts, and your factual statements were as bad or worse. Davis is "slow-footed" when he runs and moves like a guard. Davis is an "overrated defender" when he had 415 rebounds, 186 blocks and 54 steals. Davis is a product of Calipari hype when he was the #2 high school recruit in America and would have been a top 5 pick straight out of high school were such guys still allowed to enter the draft. And attributing Derrick Rose's success to excellent Chicago player development is ridiculous when A) Rose was NBA ROY with almost 17 ppg and over 6 apg and B) this great Chicago player development hasn't done squat for anybody else on that team.
Even your opinions that had merit on the surface fall apart when viewed in context. Yes Davis lacks strength and has a limited offensive game (though it is not the "total lack" that you absurdly claim) but because a mere 3 years ago he was a 6'4" SG playing for a math and sciences charter school that had no gym or weight room.
And the comparison between Kevin Durant and Davis helps illustrate what I am talking about. Durant played for some of the nation's best AAU teams and for powerhouse basketball factory high schools. He had the benefit of the great coaching, facilities and competition that Davis had to excel without. And while Durant also had a late high school growth spurt (6'2" to 6'9") he merely moved from SG to SF, meaning that he remained a wing player and was able to retain much of his game. Davis had to go from the wing to the frontcourt and totally change it. Now in Durant's defense, he would have still been an elite D-I prospect had he remained 6'4" where Davis would not have been a college basketball player at all without his height. I am just pointing out that Durant was a more polished and productive college offensive player for reasons that have nothing to do with what Davis might accomplish in the NBA when he physically matures and gets more experience playing in the paint than the THREE that he currently has. Also, the idea that Davis has to be as good as Durant to justify his draft position is ridiculous anyway. Going back to my first point, who are the other guys in this draft that are going to be as good as Durant? Tell me who they are and tell me why.
Add it all up and you are rooting for a teenager to fail because you are bitter over his getting drafted when Jeremy Lin wasn't.
Flameboy unknown, I'm not rooting for anybody to fail. That's something only a hater like you would do.
DeleteI have not followed college basketball closely enough to properly evaluate every single player that applied for the draft. But I've seen enough players come and go to know who's going to impact a franchise and who isn't. And I am predicting that Anthony Davis and MKG are going to have a marginal impact on winning for likely their first few seasons.
Call me absurd, but I'd have taken Jeremy Lamb, Andrew Nicholson, Thomas Robinson, and even Jae Crowder over Anthony Davis. Each one of those players has definable NBA court sense and skills that would readily translate into immediate on court success. Davis has the height and straight ahead speed, but he certainly has rawness that'll likely take a few seasons to overcome. I don't even rate Davis as high as the lottery big men taken in 2010, specifically Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins and Greg Monroe.
For all I know, Davis will step in and become a 20-10 player on a winning team. If that's the case, I'd happily admit my gross error.
At least I'm not like you flaming Lin and his fans by claiming that Jeremy Lin isn't good enough to play in D1 or the NBA.