As what sounded like an insider in Warriors practice posted on these boards long ago, once he masters his jumper, everything else will fall into place.
That being said, for now, I really don't think he has to shoot at all while hopefully in with Monta, Wright, Udoh, other at end of first quarter and third quarter (hopefully).
Monta is going to want the ball, so all Lin has to do is play his usual solid defense and hopefully tips, steals, rebounds, and just closing down drives into the paint happen naturally.
Even if other team plays four on five while Lin is in game, against the non-elite teams, Monta's freakish athleticism will allow him to create whatever shots he wants.
Lin can just focus on scoring when he gets a defensive rebound and is pushing the ball aggressively in transition.
Yes,Michael you are absolutely right. Lin is pretty weak at his jumpers especially when it comes to long range 2pointer. He needs to work on his speed too during the game.Turnovers made by him needs to be reduced so that Smart will not lose confidence on him.
Does Lin only get minutes when a game is already lost, as if being put in to take the loss? It's a different story if Lin gets opportunities to contribute or rewarded for when he provides good play, but I wonder what past stats say..?
Lin, like almost any other player, needs to continue to improve on his game, but he should be directed/guided/rewarded/supported in order to gain experience. I wonder if he gets this from the coaching because I don't see it.
Lin got excellent coaching in the D-League and his development was excellent. Can't say the same for his stint with the Warriors. I think most on this site would either like to see him go to another team and/or perhaps build up his strength, especially his upper body, work on a jumper and stay as the "big" guard behind Ellis and Curry. He would be at a height disadvantage often times but has shown he can defend guards of all sizes. It wouldn't surprise me to see him end up in the Southern California area.
Houston game: Lin and Udoh bring back Warriors, but all get benched for starters with 5 minutes remaining (starters quickly lose the game).
Utah: Lin totally shuts down Earl Watson, but gets no minutes in second half
Atlanta: Acie Law totally stinks up joint in 1:30 at end of second quarter, but Smart puts him right back in. Lin would haven't seen a second in second half if he played like that.
Smart is a career scrub who relates to other career scrubs like Law. I bet he views Lin as a golden child born with a silver spoon in his mouth, even though Stanford didn't take the California Player of the Year into their program.
Till Law is long gone from NBA and no prospect for Smart to be able to bring him back, don't think Lin will get any sort of fair opportunities, let alone playing time that reflects how well he did in recent games.
Smart is building reputation now for lacking regular substitution strategy and over working the starting guards. When he does use his bench he is inconsistent & often illogical rotation. His main excuse is that bench is not producing. Let's see how long he can use the same excuse.
It's a close game. Dub's down by 3. No sign of JLin or Acie Law. Looks like Smart is going to play his starters all 48 minutes.
Smart doesn't sub when it's a close game. He seems content watching Curry and Ellis get exhausted and end up struggling against the opposing bench guards.
The reason why GSW is losing is because they can't rebound the ball and their defense sucks against Kevin Love. If JLin was in the game, he would prevent Kevin Love from getting so many rebounds even though he's much shorter. Remember the D-League where would outrebound even the taller Mo Charlo and P. OBryant some games. Gluck Acie Law the 0 turnover master.
Another embarassing loss in the making to a 17 (soon to be 18) win team. The Warriors are not to be taken seriously. After a game like this and the one against the Hawks, I have to imagine Smart has pretty much lost his job.
I don't have a problem with Reggie Williams coming off the bench ahead of Lin, but Lin can brick jumpers as well as Law, and Lin at least gives you real defense.
Whew I was scared GSW was going to win and K.Smart would keep his job. Thankfully they lost because of Acie Law going 0-3, -13 in 10 minutes. I think JLin going in for 5 minutes and getting 2/3, 2 steals, 2 assists is a bit better for the team than A.Law. Good bye K. Smart!
@Kumakun: Haha, I was thinking the same thing! (Is that wrong?) I actually don't want anyone losing their job for Lin's sake, but if you aren't doing a good job in general, well then maybe it is time for someone more effective to step in.
I also agree that 6 minutes of Lin in the 3rd (in place of Law) could have made the difference in such a close game.
Let's all celebrate when Dumbo is gone. Seriously, all season long this Dumbo has mismanaged the Warriors. The fans deserve better than this, and it is aggravating to watch a minute of Warriors basketball when you have a cheerleader and clown running the team.
Do not think that Dumbo can turn it around or change. He's had his chance...petrefied wood is not going to spring back to life. Boy, I'm ready to throw a party and dance in the streets as soon as I hear that he is axed. Do it Mr. Lacob!
To those talking about Jeremy's turnovers: does it look like he turns the ball over a lot during games? Because if you actually look at his game logs, he's only had TWO regular season games where he had 2 turnovers. He's NEVER had more than two in a game. I think his biggest weakness is his jumpshot but it's not nearly as bad as acie's. I literally LOLed when acie airballed that wide open 3 against the hawks and the crowd rightfully booed him. At least we can be comforted by the fact that Jeremy would never be that dumb.
As much as I hate acie getting the minutes that he does, it's really not his fault. The coach is the one who determines the minutes so while it's fun to make fun of acie, I almost feel bad for him. The more PT acie gets, the more it's obvious that Jeremy is a better all around player. Today acie's stat line was 0-3 in 8 mins with ZEROs all across the board except for 2 fouls. Jeremy is a defensive stopper and the W's could have really used some tonight.
I don't know what Jeremy has to do to get more (ANY) playing time since he's shown time and time again how efficient he is given the limited playing time that he's had to earn. Does keith ever watch the game film?? If he did, he would notice all the subtle things Jeremy does that makes the team better when he's on the floor, least of which is earn the team extra possessions.
Well, many have been wrongly accused of being me (the latest is tumadre) but there is only one Reality Now and that one is me. No need to direct your vitriol at other poor souls whose only fault is being critical.
To the topic at hand. Lin must absolutely stay with the Warriors the rest of the way or it is otherwise bad news for him. The usefulness of the D-League is limited. A player can maybe go down there and work on a thing or two but that should only take 2-3 weeks at most. Beyond that limited period, a player would mostly just pick up bad habits and lower his level of play to the abismal one at the D-League.
But more importantly, for any GM watching, if you are in the D-League you are a D-leaguer and if you are in the NBA, you are an NBA player. And that makes a whole lot of difference as to how any GM would approach any JL possibilities. Thus, for Lin and his agent, he needs to stay in the NBA even if he is just sitting behind the bench with the glasses on.
One thing that is not being appraised here is the very limited time that Lin has to make progress. Most players are fully developed by the time they are 24-25. Players do not make great strides after that age. Either they are good already or they are what they are. This leaves Lin, a latecomer to the NBA, with barely about 12 months to make something happen. In the meantime, each year hundreds of new guards are knocking on the NBA doors. The assumption that there is somehow an infinite learning curve and you just get better with time is plainly wrong.
Lin, with his agent, needs to define himself as a role player, specifically a defensively oriented one. It is a role based on the only NBA-level skills that he seems to have at the present time. Any scoring that he can provide would be a bonus. Then, they (Lin & co) need to find a team where such a role would be valuable. It is hard to see how the Warriors would be such a team unless there is a whole change of personnel there.
A good number of the so-called nba 'career players' have taken the 'role' approach successfully. Lin would not make an impact on the scoring side no matter how much he can realistically improve; there are simply too many guards who could do just the same or better. His focus needs to be on defining himself as a role player and market that successfully.
Another brilliant coaching exhibition. Ellis, Curry, Wright with 40+ mins, Lee had 38 (surely would have had 40+ if he wasn't in foul trouble). And all the Warriors had to show for this was a loss to the 2nd worst team in the NBA.
"Jeff Adrien, the type of strongman, rebounding specialist capable of holding Love off the glass, got zero minutes despite being dressed. Even the final play showed a total lack of creativity and lack of awareness for how the Wolves had been shutting down Ellis all night. Smart may be a fine man and have done an admirable job this season with limited resources, but nights like this one will make Lacob’s coaching call at the end of the season an easy one."
"The twilight of the Warriors’ lost year can also be salvaged a bit by giving real minutes to the rookies on the roster (Udoh, Adrien, Lin) in hopes of accelerating their development."
Here we go again. Jeremy is on the DNP list again made by coach Smart.It seems like when the Warriors are facing a good team,Lin will not have a chance to play at all.
Minnesota is not a good team by any stretch of the imagination. But they sure looked better than the W's yesterday. Adam Lauridsen is a great blogger. He makes solid points and well thought-out, unbiased commentary. However, I am not sure if Smart would start playing the young guys more when the W's are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Every single win helps him secure his job for next season. Just look at his rotation during pre-season. What team plays their top players 40+ minutes in pre-season exhibition? I do agree with reality-now that the defensive specialist role suits JLin. Defense is his biggest strength/weapon right now, and it comes to him naturally. But is there that much demand around the league for that in a PG? D specialists like Battier and Artest are 3's that can guard 2's and 4's.....
I think that's exactly what many teams need in a backup pg... you want someone who will give you good d while your starter is on the bench. offense is secondary. btw lin still leads the league in steals per 48 min by a huge margin (eliminate the first player on the list who has just 1 total steal) http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/steals/sort/avg48Steals/qualified/false
Don't forget, Lin is also tops in the league in blocks per minute for point guards. and he leads the league by a wide margin in that category as well. So, what I don't understand is why he's not playing more minutes. a team doesn't need 5 scorers playing at the same time. well... a GOOD team doesn't.
It actually is straightforward to understand why Lin would not get more minutes to play. For the purpose of this discussion, let's say that his main contributions are steals and blocks.
The main value of a steal is that it gets you an additional possession. But as it is, the Warriors are #2 in the NBA in Field Goals Attempted (FGA)(behind Minnesota) meaning that they can pretty much get as many shots as they want in any game. Thus, the value of a steal here or there for the Warriors is as low as it gets for the league. On the oppossite side of the spectrum, a steal for Boston (#30) or Miami (#28) is much more valuable. There is a dark side to steals as well. Many times a player who goes for a steal does so by gambling on his defensive position. If he fails, it's typically an easy score and it does not show on the stats sheet.
Regarding blocks, a block is basically making an oppossing player miss a shot, but as before, for the Warriors blocks are very low value. The Warriors are nearly last in the league in Opponent's Field Goal. Thus, a Warriors opponent could not care less if 1-2 shots are blocked because they know they are going to get plenty of shots at a high percentage anyway.
All in all, the reality is that Lin's skills don't really add much to the Warriors. It is not surprising that he can't find a spot there.
Ummm, when the Warriors beat the Bulls, New Orleans, and Utah recently, wasn't a major reason because of better defense? (I think other teams have had time to review the Warriors gimmicky switching, double teaming defense and now have figured out how to beat it easily). They know need real, fundamentally sound defense, which starts with stopping penetration into the paint by opposing point guard.
If Lin does nothing more than keep the opposing point guard from penetrating into paint at will, he has done his job.
Even if Lin gets beat initially, he is quick enough to recover and try and get back into play. Law just stands at 3 point line watching play (Sacramento game) or trails opposing guard but really never gets back into play. I think this is basically why his plus minus is consistently so bad over games, while Lin often holds the line in terms of score differential, and Lin / Udoh sometimes even trigger a comeback.
18 seconds left. Warriors down 1. They burn the clock to take the last shot. Complete idiocy. Fine if you are playing football, but not basketball. EVER!
OmyGod is the coaching and the play completely overrated at the NBA level. Its no wonder Jlin is not getting appreciated when SMART holds the ball for the last shot when they are down by 1 with 18 second left.
On the other side of the floor, Kevin Love is working on like a 40-40, and he can't get a touch down the stretch. Guys just hoisting threes and throwing up junk.
The game is only being played and coached well by a few teams my friends. Hopefully, Jlin can find his way to one of those teams.
An interesting observation is that the top third are backups, the next third are the starters, then the bottom third are backups. Yes, you do take into consideration that backups typically play against other teams' backups, but a team's starters should not all be out of the top 5 in +/- per min! (I looked at the other top teams in the league, and their starters were all in the top 5 or 6 of their team for +/- per min.)
What this tells me is that the Warriors are underusing some backups and overusing the starters. If the Warriors played their effective backups more, that will raise the +/- for their starters (they'll be able to play better defense and rebounding). It should also bring down the backups' +/-, but the net gain will be positive. Basically, the Warriors are playing below their optimal level due to their rotations.
4.1 E. Udoh 2.7 J. Adrien 0.6 J. Lin 0.4 V. Radmanovic 0.0 C. Bell -0.4 S. Curry -2.0 D. Wright -2.2 D. Lee -2.9 R. Williams -3.3 M. Ellis -5.0 L. Amundson -6.1 D. Gadzuric -6.1 A. Biedrins -8.0 B. Wright -8.0 A. Law
The latest plus/minus stats are in: www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22010&split=9&team=Warriors
An interesting observation is that the top third are backups, the next third are the starters, then the bottom third are backups. Yes, you do take into consideration that backups typically play against other teams' backups, but a team's starters should not all be out of the top 5 in +/- per min! (I looked at the other top teams in the league, and their starters were all in the top 5 or 6 of their team for +/- per min.)
What this tells me is that the Warriors are underusing some backups and overusing the starters. If the Warriors played their effective backups more, that will raise the +/- for their starters (they'll be able to play better defense and rebounding). It should also bring down the backups' +/-, but the net gain will be positive. Basically, the Warriors are playing below their optimal level due to their rotations.
4.1 E. Udoh 2.7 J. Adrien 0.6 J. Lin 0.4 V. Radmanovic 0.0 C. Bell -0.4 S. Curry -2.0 D. Wright -2.2 D. Lee -2.9 R. Williams -3.3 M. Ellis -5.0 L. Amundson -6.1 D. Gadzuric -6.1 A. Biedrins -8.0 B. Wright -8.0 A. Law
@Reality Now: That is an interesting take on the value of steals and blocks given where the Warriors are at as a team. Coach Smart certainly seems to agree with you. However, steals are not just an extra posession for the offense, it is also one less posession for the opponent. In addition, steals lead to fast breaks which lead to easier baskets than a normal half-court posession. Also, there is simply the matter of pressuring the opposing guard making them slightly more cautious and tentative (i.e. less effective). As for blocks, sure it is just one FG missed and you will get plenty more, but that is a big part of the problem with the Warriors lack of D - uncontested shots/layups. Blocks and contested shots put more pressure on the opponent thus lowering their FG %. Also, the FG % is more important than the FGs attempted as the attempts has more to do with the pace of the game the Ws like to play. Finally, in Lin's last game against the Hawks, he had 3 steals and a block in a span of 6-8 minutes and the team went on a +10 run forcing the Hawks' coach to put back in 3 of their starters. Steals and blocks can quickly change the momentum of a game. Unfortunately, coach Smart can't seem to recognize this and the results are what they are.
"the Warriors are #2 in the NBA in Field Goals Attempted (FGA)(behind Minnesota) meaning that they can pretty much get as many shots as they want in any game."
according to this brilliant logic, that means the warriors don't need to improve on rebounding either, because "they can get as many shots as they want"
"The Warriors are nearly last in the league in Opponent's Field Goal. Thus, a Warriors opponent could not care less if 1-2 shots are blocked because they know they are going to get plenty of shots at a high percentage anyway."
lol, then opponents shouldn't care about anything the warriors do: make 3 ptrs, create turnovers, since the opponents can compensate by shooting at a high percentage anyway. this is the most pathetic argument ever.
Hope that Jeremy will get more minutes this time.He needs to score more in order to help his team win a game after for so long
ReplyDeleteAs what sounded like an insider in Warriors practice posted on these boards long ago, once he masters his jumper, everything else will fall into place.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, for now, I really don't think he has to shoot at all while hopefully in with Monta, Wright, Udoh, other at end of first quarter and third quarter (hopefully).
Monta is going to want the ball, so all Lin has to do is play his usual solid defense and hopefully tips, steals, rebounds, and just closing down drives into the paint happen naturally.
Even if other team plays four on five while Lin is in game, against the non-elite teams, Monta's freakish athleticism will allow him to create whatever shots he wants.
Lin can just focus on scoring when he gets a defensive rebound and is pushing the ball aggressively in transition.
Yes,Michael you are absolutely right. Lin is pretty weak at his jumpers especially when it comes to long range 2pointer. He needs to work on his speed too during the game.Turnovers made by him needs to be reduced so that Smart will not lose confidence on him.
ReplyDeleteDoes Lin only get minutes when a game is already lost, as if being put in to take the loss? It's a different story if Lin gets opportunities to contribute or rewarded for when he provides good play, but I wonder what past stats say..?
ReplyDeleteLin, like almost any other player, needs to continue to improve on his game, but he should be directed/guided/rewarded/supported in order to gain experience. I wonder if he gets this from the coaching because I don't see it.
@ mtle421
ReplyDeleteLin got excellent coaching in the D-League and his development was excellent. Can't say the same for his stint with the Warriors. I think most on this site would either like to see him go to another team and/or perhaps build up his strength, especially his upper body, work on a jumper and stay as the "big" guard behind Ellis and Curry. He would be at a height disadvantage often times but has shown he can defend guards of all sizes. It wouldn't surprise me to see him end up in the Southern California area.
Houston game: Lin and Udoh bring back Warriors, but all get benched for starters with 5 minutes remaining (starters quickly lose the game).
ReplyDeleteUtah: Lin totally shuts down Earl Watson, but gets no minutes in second half
Atlanta: Acie Law totally stinks up joint in 1:30 at end of second quarter, but Smart puts him right back in. Lin would haven't seen a second in second half if he played like that.
Smart is a career scrub who relates to other career scrubs like Law. I bet he views Lin as a golden child born with a silver spoon in his mouth, even though Stanford didn't take the California Player of the Year into their program.
Till Law is long gone from NBA and no prospect for Smart to be able to bring him back, don't think Lin will get any sort of fair opportunities, let alone playing time that reflects how well he did in recent games.
Smart is building reputation now for lacking regular substitution strategy and over working the starting guards. When he does use his bench he is inconsistent & often illogical rotation. His main excuse is that bench is not producing. Let's see how long he can use the same excuse.
ReplyDeleteIt's a close game. Dub's down by 3. No sign of JLin or Acie Law. Looks like Smart is going to play his starters all 48 minutes.
ReplyDeleteSmart doesn't sub when it's a close game. He seems content watching Curry and Ellis get exhausted and end up struggling against the opposing bench guards.
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ReplyDeleteWow, Law goes in for like 2-3 minutes and they go down by 8.
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ReplyDeleteThe reason why GSW is losing is because they can't rebound the ball and their defense sucks against Kevin Love. If JLin was in the game, he would prevent Kevin Love from getting so many rebounds even though he's much shorter. Remember the D-League where would outrebound even the taller Mo Charlo and P. OBryant some games. Gluck Acie Law the 0 turnover master.
ReplyDeleteAcie Law - 8:00mins, 0-3fg, -13+/-, 1pf and keith dumb said " you got no turnovers, good job my boy".
ReplyDeleteAnother embarassing loss in the making to a 17 (soon to be 18) win team. The Warriors are not to be taken seriously. After a game like this and the one against the Hawks, I have to imagine Smart has pretty much lost his job.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a problem with Reggie Williams coming off the bench ahead of Lin, but Lin can brick jumpers as well as Law, and Lin at least gives you real defense.
ReplyDeleteIt's also so obvious Dorrell Wright should be coming off bench.
ReplyDeleteHis three rain easily when game is NOT on line, but if he has to take meaningful shot, all you get is CLANG off rim
Whew I was scared GSW was going to win and K.Smart would keep his job. Thankfully they lost because of Acie Law going 0-3, -13 in 10 minutes. I think JLin going in for 5 minutes and getting 2/3, 2 steals, 2 assists is a bit better for the team than A.Law. Good bye K. Smart!
ReplyDelete@Kumakun:
ReplyDeleteHaha, I was thinking the same thing! (Is that wrong?) I actually don't want anyone losing their job for Lin's sake, but if you aren't doing a good job in general, well then maybe it is time for someone more effective to step in.
I also agree that 6 minutes of Lin in the 3rd (in place of Law) could have made the difference in such a close game.
Let's all celebrate when Dumbo is gone. Seriously, all season long this Dumbo has mismanaged the Warriors. The fans deserve better than this, and it is aggravating to watch a minute of Warriors basketball when you have a cheerleader and clown running the team.
ReplyDeleteDo not think that Dumbo can turn it around or change. He's had his chance...petrefied wood is not going to spring back to life. Boy, I'm ready to throw a party and dance in the streets as soon as I hear that he is axed. Do it Mr. Lacob!
To those talking about Jeremy's turnovers: does it look like he turns the ball over a lot during games? Because if you actually look at his game logs, he's only had TWO regular season games where he had 2 turnovers. He's NEVER had more than two in a game. I think his biggest weakness is his jumpshot but it's not nearly as bad as acie's. I literally LOLed when acie airballed that wide open 3 against the hawks and the crowd rightfully booed him. At least we can be comforted by the fact that Jeremy would never be that dumb.
ReplyDeleteAs much as I hate acie getting the minutes that he does, it's really not his fault. The coach is the one who determines the minutes so while it's fun to make fun of acie, I almost feel bad for him. The more PT acie gets, the more it's obvious that Jeremy is a better all around player. Today acie's stat line was 0-3 in 8 mins with ZEROs all across the board except for 2 fouls. Jeremy is a defensive stopper and the W's could have really used some tonight.
I don't know what Jeremy has to do to get more (ANY) playing time since he's shown time and time again how efficient he is given the limited playing time that he's had to earn. Does keith ever watch the game film?? If he did, he would notice all the subtle things Jeremy does that makes the team better when he's on the floor, least of which is earn the team extra possessions.
ESPN, "Keith Smart, Golden State Warriors coach, fired by owner Joesph Lacob after a disappointing loss against Minnesota."
ReplyDeletehttp://espn.go.com/nba/local/team?team=gs/smartfired
Well, many have been wrongly accused of being me (the latest is tumadre) but there is only one Reality Now and that one is me. No need to direct your vitriol at other poor souls whose only fault is being critical.
ReplyDeleteTo the topic at hand. Lin must absolutely stay with the Warriors the rest of the way or it is otherwise bad news for him. The usefulness of the D-League is limited. A player can maybe go down there and work on a thing or two but that should only take 2-3 weeks at most. Beyond that limited period, a player would mostly just pick up bad habits and lower his level of play to the abismal one at the D-League.
But more importantly, for any GM watching, if you are in the D-League you are a D-leaguer and if you are in the NBA, you are an NBA player. And that makes a whole lot of difference as to how any GM would approach any JL possibilities. Thus, for Lin and his agent, he needs to stay in the NBA even if he is just sitting behind the bench with the glasses on.
One thing that is not being appraised here is the very limited time that Lin has to make progress. Most players are fully developed by the time they are 24-25. Players do not make great strides after that age. Either they are good already or they are what they are. This leaves Lin, a latecomer to the NBA, with barely about 12 months to make something happen. In the meantime, each year hundreds of new guards are knocking on the NBA doors. The assumption that there is somehow an infinite learning curve and you just get better with time is plainly wrong.
Lin, with his agent, needs to define himself as a role player, specifically a defensively oriented one. It is a role based on the only NBA-level skills that he seems to have at the present time. Any scoring that he can provide would be a bonus. Then, they (Lin & co) need to find a team where such a role would be valuable. It is hard to see how the Warriors would be such a team unless there is a whole change of personnel there.
A good number of the so-called nba 'career players' have taken the 'role' approach successfully. Lin would not make an impact on the scoring side no matter how much he can realistically improve; there are simply too many guards who could do just the same or better. His focus needs to be on defining himself as a role player and market that successfully.
@sheldon, why do you post random fake news?
ReplyDeleteAnother brilliant coaching exhibition. Ellis, Curry, Wright with 40+ mins, Lee had 38 (surely would have had 40+ if he wasn't in foul trouble). And all the Warriors had to show for this was a loss to the 2nd worst team in the NBA.
@real-dsb it was a joke lol, and it wasn't _that_ random, it was more like i wish he got fired
ReplyDeleteFrom the Mercury News' Warriors writer:
ReplyDelete"Jeff Adrien, the type of strongman, rebounding specialist capable of holding Love off the glass, got zero minutes despite being dressed. Even the final play showed a total lack of creativity and lack of awareness for how the Wolves had been shutting down Ellis all night. Smart may be a fine man and have done an admirable job this season with limited resources, but nights like this one will make Lacob’s coaching call at the end of the season an easy one."
"The twilight of the Warriors’ lost year can also be salvaged a bit by giving real minutes to the rookies on the roster (Udoh, Adrien, Lin) in hopes of accelerating their development."
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/warriors/2011/02/27/dramatic-losing-basketball-warriors-123-wolves-126/
Here we go again. Jeremy is on the DNP list again made by coach Smart.It seems like when the Warriors are facing a good team,Lin will not have a chance to play at all.
ReplyDeleteMinnesota is not a good team by any stretch of the imagination. But they sure looked better than the W's yesterday.
ReplyDeleteAdam Lauridsen is a great blogger. He makes solid points and well thought-out, unbiased commentary. However, I am not sure if Smart would start playing the young guys more when the W's are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Every single win helps him secure his job for next season. Just look at his rotation during pre-season. What team plays their top players 40+ minutes in pre-season exhibition?
I do agree with reality-now that the defensive specialist role suits JLin. Defense is his biggest strength/weapon right now, and it comes to him naturally. But is there that much demand around the league for that in a PG? D specialists like Battier and Artest are 3's that can guard 2's and 4's.....
I think that's exactly what many teams need in a backup pg... you want someone who will give you good d while your starter is on the bench. offense is secondary. btw lin still leads the league in steals per 48 min by a huge margin (eliminate the first player on the list who has just 1 total steal)
ReplyDeletehttp://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/steals/sort/avg48Steals/qualified/false
Don't forget, Lin is also tops in the league in blocks per minute for point guards. and he leads the league by a wide margin in that category as well. So, what I don't understand is why he's not playing more minutes. a team doesn't need 5 scorers playing at the same time. well... a GOOD team doesn't.
ReplyDeleteIt actually is straightforward to understand why Lin would not get more minutes to play. For the purpose of this discussion, let's say that his main contributions are steals and blocks.
ReplyDeleteThe main value of a steal is that it gets you an additional possession. But as it is, the Warriors are #2 in the NBA in Field Goals Attempted (FGA)(behind Minnesota) meaning that they can pretty much get as many shots as they want in any game. Thus, the value of a steal here or there for the Warriors is as low as it gets for the league. On the oppossite side of the spectrum, a steal for Boston (#30) or Miami (#28) is much more valuable.
There is a dark side to steals as well. Many times a player who goes for a steal does so by gambling on his defensive position. If he fails, it's typically an easy score and it does not show on the stats sheet.
Regarding blocks, a block is basically making an oppossing player miss a shot, but as before, for the Warriors blocks are very low value. The Warriors are nearly last in the league in Opponent's Field Goal. Thus, a Warriors opponent could not care less if 1-2 shots are blocked because they know they are going to get plenty of shots at a high percentage anyway.
All in all, the reality is that Lin's skills don't really add much to the Warriors. It is not surprising that he can't find a spot there.
Ummm, when the Warriors beat the Bulls, New Orleans, and Utah recently, wasn't a major reason because of better defense? (I think other teams have had time to review the Warriors gimmicky switching, double teaming defense and now have figured out how to beat it easily). They know need real, fundamentally sound defense, which starts with stopping penetration into the paint by opposing point guard.
ReplyDeleteIf Lin does nothing more than keep the opposing point guard from penetrating into paint at will, he has done his job.
Even if Lin gets beat initially, he is quick enough to recover and try and get back into play. Law just stands at 3 point line watching play (Sacramento game) or trails opposing guard but really never gets back into play. I think this is basically why his plus minus is consistently so bad over games, while Lin often holds the line in terms of score differential, and Lin / Udoh sometimes even trigger a comeback.
18 seconds left. Warriors down 1. They burn the clock to take the last shot. Complete idiocy. Fine if you are playing football, but not basketball. EVER!
ReplyDeleteOmyGod is the coaching and the play completely overrated at the NBA level. Its no wonder Jlin is not getting appreciated when SMART holds the ball for the last shot when they are down by 1 with 18 second left.
On the other side of the floor,
Kevin Love is working on like a 40-40, and he can't get a touch down the stretch. Guys just hoisting threes and throwing up junk.
The game is only being played and coached well by a few teams my friends. Hopefully, Jlin can find his way to one of those teams.
FREE JLIN!
The latest plus/minus stats are in.
ReplyDeleteAn interesting observation is that the top third are backups, the next third are the starters, then the bottom third are backups. Yes, you do take into consideration that backups typically play against other teams' backups, but a team's starters should not all be out of the top 5 in +/- per min! (I looked at the other top teams in the league, and their starters were all in the top 5 or 6 of their team for +/- per min.)
What this tells me is that the Warriors are underusing some backups and overusing the starters. If the Warriors played their effective backups more, that will raise the +/- for their starters (they'll be able to play better defense and rebounding). It should also bring down the backups' +/-, but the net gain will be positive. Basically, the Warriors are playing below their optimal level due to their rotations.
4.1 E. Udoh
2.7 J. Adrien
0.6 J. Lin
0.4 V. Radmanovic
0.0 C. Bell
-0.4 S. Curry
-2.0 D. Wright
-2.2 D. Lee
-2.9 R. Williams
-3.3 M. Ellis
-5.0 L. Amundson
-6.1 D. Gadzuric
-6.1 A. Biedrins
-8.0 B. Wright
-8.0 A. Law
The latest plus/minus stats are in:
ReplyDeletewww.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22010&split=9&team=Warriors
An interesting observation is that the top third are backups, the next third are the starters, then the bottom third are backups. Yes, you do take into consideration that backups typically play against other teams' backups, but a team's starters should not all be out of the top 5 in +/- per min! (I looked at the other top teams in the league, and their starters were all in the top 5 or 6 of their team for +/- per min.)
What this tells me is that the Warriors are underusing some backups and overusing the starters. If the Warriors played their effective backups more, that will raise the +/- for their starters (they'll be able to play better defense and rebounding). It should also bring down the backups' +/-, but the net gain will be positive. Basically, the Warriors are playing below their optimal level due to their rotations.
4.1 E. Udoh
2.7 J. Adrien
0.6 J. Lin
0.4 V. Radmanovic
0.0 C. Bell
-0.4 S. Curry
-2.0 D. Wright
-2.2 D. Lee
-2.9 R. Williams
-3.3 M. Ellis
-5.0 L. Amundson
-6.1 D. Gadzuric
-6.1 A. Biedrins
-8.0 B. Wright
-8.0 A. Law
@Reality Now:
ReplyDeleteThat is an interesting take on the value of steals and blocks given where the Warriors are at as a team. Coach Smart certainly seems to agree with you.
However, steals are not just an extra posession for the offense, it is also one less posession for the opponent. In addition, steals lead to fast breaks which lead to easier baskets than a normal half-court posession. Also, there is simply the matter of pressuring the opposing guard making them slightly more cautious and tentative (i.e. less effective).
As for blocks, sure it is just one FG missed and you will get plenty more, but that is a big part of the problem with the Warriors lack of D - uncontested shots/layups. Blocks and contested shots put more pressure on the opponent thus lowering their FG %. Also, the FG % is more important than the FGs attempted as the attempts has more to do with the pace of the game the Ws like to play.
Finally, in Lin's last game against the Hawks, he had 3 steals and a block in a span of 6-8 minutes and the team went on a +10 run forcing the Hawks' coach to put back in 3 of their starters. Steals and blocks can quickly change the momentum of a game.
Unfortunately, coach Smart can't seem to recognize this and the results are what they are.
"the Warriors are #2 in the NBA in Field Goals Attempted (FGA)(behind Minnesota) meaning that they can pretty much get as many shots as they want in any game."
ReplyDeleteaccording to this brilliant logic, that means the warriors don't need to improve on rebounding either, because "they can get as many shots as they want"
"The Warriors are nearly last in the league in Opponent's Field Goal. Thus, a Warriors opponent could not care less if 1-2 shots are blocked because they know they are going to get plenty of shots at a high percentage anyway."
lol, then opponents shouldn't care about anything the warriors do: make 3 ptrs, create turnovers, since the opponents can compensate by shooting at a high percentage anyway. this is the most pathetic argument ever.