Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Projecting Jeremy Lin, Part 5: Defense and Rebounding


Video clip has some good offensive highlights, but I love the great defensive sequence of Jeremy blocking a shot and then forcing an air ball. Also, before that the steal and the coast to coast finish.


I found some correlation between making the NBA All Defensive Team and:

Career College Steals + Blocks

JKidd.................3.46 + .29 = 3.75.....4 1st Team All Def, 5 2nd Team All Def
DWade................2.3 + 1.2 = 3.5.....3 2nd Team
Chris Paul............2.7 + .2 = 2.9......1 1st Team, 1 2nd Team
Tyreke.................2.08 + .78 = 2.86
JLin.....................2.0 + .6 = 2.6
R. Stuckey............2.3 + .3 = 2.6
R. Rondo..............2.3 + .2 = 2.5.....One 1st Team, One 2nd Team
John Wall.............1.8 + .5 = 2.3
C. Billups..............2.1 + .1 = 2.2.....Two 2nd Team
G. Arenas.............1.9 + .2 = 2.1
Steve Blake...........1.7+ .3 = 2.0
OJ Mayo...............1.5 + .4 = 1.9
Jarrett Jack...........1.8 + .1 = 1.9
Kirk Hinrich.........1.46 + .4 = 1.86.....One 2nd Team
Derrick Rose.........1.2 + .4 = 1.6
Steve Nash............1.3 + .06 = 1.36
Deron Williams.....1.1 + .2 = 1.2

College career rpg to NBA rebounds per 36 min., shows a decent correlation

DWade................6.5.....4.7
JKidd...................5.9.....6.6
C. Billups.............5.6.....3.3
Tyreke.................5.4.....5.1
R. Stuckey............4.7.....4.0
R. Rondo..............4.5.....5.1
Derrick Rose........4.5.....3.7
OJ Mayo...............4.5.....3.6
Jarrett Jack...........4.5.....3.5
JLin......................4.3
John Wall..............4.3
Chris Paul.............3.9.....4.5
G. Arenas.............3.8.....4.1
Kirk Hinrich.........3.8.....3.6
Steve Blake...........3.4.....3.0
Deron Williams.....3.3.....3.2
Steve Nash............3.1.....3.7

What I take from the stats and analyzing his game is that Jeremy has the potential to be an excellent defensive player in the NBA. Also, he could average 3.5 to 4.5 rebounds per 36 minutes, with anything over 4 being in very good company.

5 comments:

  1. isn't all his stats against ivy league players?
    I would gave it a 30% discount on what he got for comparison

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  2. I know that his stats were even better the last two years against the Big East. So, we may have to increase it by 30% ! (-:

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  3. Actually, in 3 games last year against GTown, BC, and UConn, JLin averaged 2 steals and 1 block. So, we can give him a 3.0 instead of 2.6 and move him up right under JKidd and DWade. He averaged 5.33 rebounds in those three games as well.

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  4. NONE OF THESE STATS MEAN ANYTHING............PREDICTIONS ARE USELESS. LET'S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY! TOO MUCH STATS!

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  5. It's better than just saying someone is going to be great because I think or feel so. At least there is something measureable to back it up. But yes, that's the last of the college stats. Next time you see stats it will be actual NBA stats of JLin.

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